Macro Extremes (week ending May 15, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Norwegian 10-year yield

German 30-year bond yield

U.S. 5-, 7-, 10- and 30-year government bond yields *

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3-month yield spread *

Copper/Gold Ratio

TBT & TBX

Copper

Shanghai Rebar *

Rice

Wheat

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australia & Japanese 2-year government bond yields

Australian Coking Coal *

Richards Bay Coal

Bloomberg Commodity Index *

Brent Crude Oil

Heating Oil

JKM LNG

Gasoline *

China Iron Ore *

Rubber *

CRB Index *

Urea Middle East *

AUD/CHF *

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/THB *

CNH/USD

CSI 300

China A50 Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite

And the S&P 500

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 5, 10 and 30-year government bond yields

South Korean 10 year bond yield

Baltic Dry Index

KOSPI *

Nasdaq 100 *

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

NZD/AUD *

IDR/USD *

INR/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

TLT

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

Korean 10-year yields have risen for 5 weeks.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio have risen for 6 straight weeks.

Equities mostly eased.

A few indices left overbought territory.

Many other winning streaks of 5, 6 and 7 weeks were snapped.

The remaining are the S&P 500 at 7 and Vietnam is at 8 weeks.

Inversely, the CAC, DJ Transports, IGPA and ASX small caps have fallen for 4 weeks.

While Brazil’s BOVESPA has declined 11% over the past 5 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

Crude Oil, Gases, Distillates, Oats, Rice and Wheat were the notable gainers.

Cocoa, Cotton, Orange Juice, Tin, Precious Metals and Corn were amongst the decliners.

Aluminium, Cotton and U.S. Gulf Urea left overbought territory.

Shanghai Rebar has risen for 4 weeks.

Australian Coking Coal is in a 5-week winning streak.

The Baltic Dry Index has risen for 7 weeks.

And Palladium mean reverted.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie mostly fell.

AUD/USD & BRL/USD dropped out from being overbought.

The latter fell and snapped 8 weeks of advance.

Aussie/Rupee has climbed for 6 weeks.

The Aussie has risen for 7 weeks against the Euro.

The USD saw strength.

While the GBP fell.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.7%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.8%, Brent Crude 7.9%, Baltic Dry Index 5.8%, WTI Crude 10.8%, Heating Oil 5.8%, JKM LNG 5.4%, Cattle 2%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.9%, Natural Gas 7.4%, Gasoline 5.4%, S&P GSCI 2.6%, CRB Index 2.5%, Dutch TTF Gas 13.7%, Gasoil 2.7%, Oats 4.5%, Rice 3.4%, Wheat 2.7%, OBX 2.4% and ASX Materials Index rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Cocoa (4.3%), Cotton (4.9%), Palm Oil (1.9%), Arabica Coffee (2.9%), Nickel (2.2%), Orange Juice (10.2%), Palladium (4.1%), Platinum (3.3%), Tin (3.1%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.9%), Urea Middle East (1.8%), Silver in AUD (4.1%), Silver in USD (5.4%), Gold in AUD (2.4%), Gold in CAD (3.2%), Gold in CHF (2.4%), Gold in EUR (2.4%), Gold in USD (3.7%), Corn (3.3%), Soybeans (2.6%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), KBW Banks (1.8%), BUX (2.1%), CAC (2%), IDX (3.5%), DAX (1.6%), DFM (3.3%), FCATC (2.5%), HSCEI (2.2%), Hang Seng (1.6%), IBB (1.8%), IBEX (1.5%), Bovespa (3.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (3.2%), Dublin (2.6%), Russell 2000 (2.3%), Kre Regional Banks (4.1%), KSE (3.2%), S&P Midcap 400 (2.4%), Mexico (2.7%), NBI (1.7%), Nikkei 225 (2.1%), Nifty (2.2%), SA40 (3%), Sensex (2.7%), IGPA (2.9%), SOX (1.6%), TA35 (2.9%), Nasdaq Transports (2.1%), XBI (3%), BIST (4.6%) and ASX Financials fell 4.3%.

May 17 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au