Macro Extremes (week ending May 29, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 10 year minus German 10-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year divided by Australian 10-year bond yield spread *

Rice *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year government bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal *

Aluminium

Baltic Dry Index

Rubber

AUD/EUR *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB *

CNH/USD *

Austria’s ATX

Russell 2000

TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

KOSPI *

Nasdaq 100 *

Nikkei 225 *

Finland’s OMX-H *

Thailand’s SET Index

Philadelphia’s SOX Index *

Poland’s WIG Index

And the S&P 500 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

USD/IDR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10-year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year govn’t bond yield spread *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

JPY/AUD *

Indonesia’s IDX Composite Index *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IDR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell, again.

As did U.S. corporate bond yields.

Nearly all the yields and yield spreads from last week’s list have departed.

The Swiss 10-year yield fell hardest.

U.S. 2- and 3-year yields along with U.S. 5-year real interest rates broke a 5 week winning streak.

A climbing U.S. minus German 10-year yield spread saw an end after 6 weeks.

Inversely, the U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year yield spread rose and broke a 5 week losing streak.

And the Copper/Gold Ratio fell and snapped 7 straight weeks of gains.

Equities were mostly higher, again.

Many index have risen 4%-6% over the past fortnight.

The Russell 2000 returns to the list.

Poland’s WIG Index has risen for 4 weeks.

Thailand’s SET is in 5-week winning streak.

The S&P 500 has climbed for 9 consecutive weeks.

While Brazil’s BOVESPA is in a 7 week losing streak.

Commodities were mixed and mostly weaker.

Shipping rates, Cocoa, Natural Gas and Tin were the notable gainers.

Crude Oil, Distillates, JKM LNG, Orange Juice, Urea, Sugar and Wheat were amongst the decliners.

Richards Bay Coal and Rice fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.

Iron Ore and Middel East Urea have declined for the past 4 weeks.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 6-week losing streak.

Brent Crude has fallen 14% in 2 weeks.

Currencies were quiet.

The Aussie rose.

The Loonie was mixed.

CHF/JPY is in a 4-week winning streak.

EUR/CHF is in a 5-week losing streak.

Yen was weaker.

USD eased.

And the Kiwi soared.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 7.8%, Cocoa 3.3%, Natural Gas 8.8%, Tim 2.2%, All World Developed ex USA 2%, ATX 2.8%, BUX 3.8%, Chian A50 3%, DJ Transports 3.1%, IBB 2%, IBEX 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.9%, TAIEX 5.8%, Nasdaq Composite 2.4%, KSE 3.7%, KOSPI 8%, S&P MidCap 400 1.5%, NBI 1.7%, Nasdaq 100 2.9%, Nikkei 225 4.7%, SOX 5.1%, IGPA 2%, S&P 500 1.4%, Nasdaq Transports 3.5%, WIG 1.4%, XBI 3.8%, ASX Materials 3.3%, ASX Industrials 2% and ASX Small Caps rose 2.7%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.6%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.6), Brent Crude Oil (9.1%), WTI Crude Oil (9.6%), Cotton (1.6%), Heating Oil (7.5%), JKM LNG (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (2.5%), JKM LNG in Yen (2.2%), Orange Juice (7.1%), Gasoline (9.5%), Sugar (4.4%), S&P GSCI (5.1%), CRB Index (3%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.8%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.8%), Gasoil (11.1%), Middle East Urea (14.2%), Corn (3.6%), Oats (2%), Rice (2.9%), Wheat (5.5%), HSCEI (1.5%), Hang Seng (1.7%), Bovespa (1.4%), IDX (2%), KLSE (1.7%), OBX (2.1%) and the Philippines PSE fell 3.2%.

May 31, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au