Trying to hear what's not being said
November 28, 2024 Leave a comment
While Oracle Corp (ORCL:US) isn’t part of the Mag-7, it mimics a similar 10x EV/Sales multiple and is probably trading at a greater extreme.
A decline in its stock price to $128 or below would help in halving that EV/Sales figure.
November 28, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 1, 2024 Leave a comment
My read on Microsoft’s share price is that $339 would be a nice place to buy.
Today, #MSFT is priced at $406.
On a weekly basis, the stock is in a downtrend, albeit it’s without strength.
Further weakness, following this weeks bearish outside reversal should help.
If my $339 entry point is reached, we’d likely on be ‘dating’, for $282 would be a price where I would ‘marry’ the stock again.
Could you imagine what the #Nasdaq 100 would like, should #Microsoft stock trade down 30% to $282?’
November 1, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 14, 2024 Leave a comment
The Nasdaq 100 is stretched but not bubbly
October 14, 2024
June 4, 2024 Leave a comment
I’m watching how the German 2 year bond yield tracks the Nasdaq 100 (or vice versa)
June 4, 2024
September 12, 2023 Leave a comment
The study below reminds me which atmosphere stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) are trading within.
It can be useful to those who use words such as “momentum” or “break-outs” as reasons for their investment or speculation decisions.
This study can also be applied to a bunch of the fabled tech darlings.
Keep in mind that mean reversion is a real thing.
What if NVDA’s stock price fell to $240?
While I see demand in certain industries and products, I’m also warning that valuations matter and the world won’t always need a new gadget let alone do we need another subscription software service.
I doubt that productivity, convenience or joy can be increased commensurately.
The second attached study features the Nasdaq 100.
September 12, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 30, 2020 Leave a comment
As the Nasdaq 100 (and S&P 500) completes a bearish outside reversal month, I wanted to show that historically, this index is not in a bubble.
The index is trading at an extreme and although the P/E ratio and other valuation metrics are lofty, they are not at all time highs.
They are not in a bubble.
We have not seen a mania.
Although it is cringeworthy that 5 stocks (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet & Facebook) make up 45% of the index’s weighting, the Nasdaq 100 is yet to trade to the stratospheric percentage levels above its 200 day moving average, as seen in 2000.
My macro view on this index is another thing.
hint – I am not a buyer of the Nasdaq 100 Index.
(see my other posts about certain Nasdaq stocks resembling the Nifty 50)
p.s. be careful of those using the word ‘bubble’, especially when they use it for effect and more so, without doing their research.
Those type of folks tend to fabulously successful reaping reward by selling fear to the uninformed and the jittery.
September 30, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 