Macro Extremes (week ending February 20, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Richards Bay Coal *

WTI and Brent Crude Oil

Oats

Wheat

PHP/USD

CAC 40 equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Australian 3 year government bond yields

Japanese 2 & 5 year government bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal *

Aluminium

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR *

AUD/CAD *

AUD/EUR *

AUD/IDR *

AUD/INR *

AUD/JPY *

AUD/SGD *

AUD/USD *

CLP/USD *

CNH/USD *

MYR/USD *

RMB *

All World Developed ex USA *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Transports *

Spain’s IBEX *

Brazil’s BOVESPA *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Malaysia’s KLSE *

South Korea’s KOSPI Index *

Mexico’s IPC Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index

Nikkei 225 Index *

Norway’s OBX Index *

Helsinki’s OMX *

Stockholm’s OMX *

South Africa’s SA40 equity Index *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Singapore’s STI Index

Israel’s TA-35

Nasdaq Transports *

Canada’s TSX Index *

FTSE 100 *

Poland’s WIG Index *

Türkiye’s BIST *

And the ASX Materials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Rotterdam Coal *

AUD/GBP *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

And Thailand SET Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

U.S. 2 year government bond yield

Arabica Coffee

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year yield spread

Chilean 10 year government bond yield

London and CME Cocoa *

Sugar #16 *

CAD/AUD

USD/CNH *

USD/MXN *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

USD/ZAR *

London and CME Cocoa *

NZD/AUD *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields were mixed.

The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate spread rose and broke a 7 week losing streak.

Belgian and Danish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

British 2, 3 & 5 year yields have also declined for 4 weeks.

The U.S. 3 month bill isn’t oversold anymore.

And the Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year spread, mean reverted.

Equities were mostly higher.

Many remain in extreme overbought territory.

The OBX, SMI, FTSE 100 and ASX Financials are in a 4 week winning streak.

Thailand’s SET is in a 6 week winning streak.

Brazil’s BOVESPA has risen for 7 weeks.

The TA35 have climbed for 8 weeks.

EGX & STI have climbed for 9 weeks.

The SOX have risen for 10 weeks.

South Korea’s KOSPI has advance in 8 of its 9 recent weeks.

The All World Developed-ex USA is working a streak of 13 weeks of higher consecutive closing prices.

The S&P MidCap 400 is nearing an overbought reading.

And Chile’s IGPA dropped out of overbought territory.

Commodities were active amongst a concentrated group.

Coal, Oils, Distillates, Precious Metals, Wheat and Oats were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Coffee, Lumber, Tin, Orange Juice & Rice were amongst the decliners.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has closed at its lowest level since February 1990 and it’s Monthly oversold reading is worth noting.

Richards Bay Coal has climbed for 7 weeks.

North American Hot Coiled Rolled Steel is in a 5 week winning streak.

Iron Ore rose and broke a 6 week losing streak.

Sugar rose and snapped a 4 weeks of losses.

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 11 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

Nearly all Yen pairs have left the extremes.

AUD/CAD, AUD/USD and AUD/ZAR have risen for 5 weeks.

AUD/SGD has closed higher for the 6^th consecutive week.

AUD/GBP and AUD/IDR has climbed for 7 weeks.

AUD/EUR in 9 week rising streak.

CAD/GBP has risen for 4 weeks.

GBP/AUD is an oversold quinella and competed a mean reversion.

While the AUD/JPY fell and snapped its 5 week winning run.

BRL/USD fell 0.1% which was enough to break its 6 week advance.

CHF/AUD rose to break is 7 weeks of decline.

And the Filipino Peso has climbed for 4 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Rotterdam Coal 2.7%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2%, Brent Crude 5.9%, WTI Crude 5.8%, Cotton 2.3%, Lean Hogs 2.6%, Heating Oil 7.7%, JKM LNG 1.9%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.8%, LME Aluminium 2.2%, Nickel 2.9%, Palladium 4.5%, Platinum 4.7%, Gasoline 4.8%, Sugar 3.8%, S&P GSCI 3.2%, CRB Index 1.5%, Gasoil 9%, Urea Middle East 1.6%, Silver in AUD 9.1%, Silver in USD 9.3%, Gold in CAD 1.8%, Gold in CHF 2.4%, Gold in EUR 2%, Gold in GBP 2.6%, Gold in ZAR 1.9%, Oats 6.2%, Wheat 5.8%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 3.3%, KBW 1.7%, CAC 2.5%, DAX 1.4%, DJ Transports 2.6%, IBEX 2.9%, TAIEX 5.7%, Nasdaq Composite 1.5%, KOSPI 5.5%, Nasdaq 100 1.1%, OBX 3.3%, Helsinki 3%, Stockholm 2%, PX 2.7%, SA40 2%, SET 3.5%, SMI 1.9%, SOX 1.5%, STI 1.6%, TA35 1.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3%, TSX 2.3%, FTSE 100 2.3%, VN Index 3.9%, S&P Biotech Index 1.6%, ASX Financials 2.8%, ASX 200 1.8%, ASX Industrials 3.1% and the ASX Small Caps rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

LME Cocoa (11.9%), CBOT Cocoa (13.5%), Arabica Coffee (4.2%), Lumber (3.4%), Tin (7.9%), Natural Gas (6%), Orange Juice (7.7%), Robusta Coffee (6.3%), Dutch TTF Gas (2.9%), Rice (7.3%), Pakistan;s KSE (3.6%), and Türkiye’s BIST fell 1.7%

February 22, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au