Bitcoin doesn’t march to its own drum
June 12, 2025 Leave a comment
Ya know that Bitcoin’s USD price is close correlated to the S&P 500 Index….
and when it’s not, often the SPX rises against BTC’s decline.
June 12, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
Watch out for the rip
November 29, 2024 Leave a comment
It’s Friday, which means the Thursday (U.S. time) edition of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Survey has been released.
History of survey results link here
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
and the respondents are more bearish than last week’s result.
and the bullish/bearish spread is negative at (1.5%).
It’s the highest bearish reading since Nov 2, 2023, when the bullish/bearish spread was also negative.
The most recent moment that the bullish/bearish spread was negative was in the April 25, 2024 release.
I have highlighted those 2 moments in the attached S&P 500 price chart.
This is in keeping with my other commentary that while we are late in this particular equity ‘party’ and the VIX is subdued, it looks like equities will ‘rip’ higher.
Like any place where waves are prevalent, you need to watch out for the rips.
November 29, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
Low Bitcoin Volatility stifles equities
November 5, 2024 Leave a comment
This study overlays Bitcoin volatility against the S&P 500 Index.
It is saying to me that when Bitcoin volatility is overbought, buy equities
And when #Bitcoin #Volatility (BVOL) is registering an RSI reading below 38, then it seems that equities are stifled, perhaps signalling a peak.
BVOL traded below 38 last week.
November 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
The oversold VIX and how the SPX grinds higher
July 4, 2024 Leave a comment
When the RSI on the VIX Index trades at a reading of 38 or below (note it has never registered a weekly oversold reading of below 30), the S&P 500 embarks on a rally against an economic backdrop of trying or testing conditions or headwinds.
This climb up a ‘wall of worry’ tends to exhaust itself when the RSI registers a reading of 64 while the upward equity trend can last between 6 and 24 months.
We are 19 months into this current ‘grind’ higher.
It’s not the safest equity market.
July 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Volatility is not rising, so stocks will
November 29, 2023 Leave a comment
The attached study was first published in June 2023.
It highlighted the moment when the VIX registered a certain RSI level in late November 2022.
12 months on, the S&P 500 has climbed 15% up the wall of worry that I allude to in the graphic below.
Recently, the VIX weekly RSI did not trade above 64 and it’s approaching 38 again.
The actual VIX Index is now at its lowest point since mid-January 2020.
The is little volatility present.
Others may suggest complacency and imply the buying of insurance is cheaper…..my work suggests that there is life in this S&P 500 advance,
but in the short-term, it’ll be in timing when to add or allocate.
November 29, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
A signal when to add to equities
November 15, 2022 Leave a comment
This study may be useful in conjunction with your other analyses.
Whenever bond prices exhibit medium to longer term overbought tendencies, it points to a reasonable moment when to increase your allocation to equities.
Now, is not that moment.
Other times, in between these moments, might be considered as ‘trading through the cycle’.
November 15, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
3% more in the S&P 500
November 12, 2022 Leave a comment
I think the S&P 500 rally should stall around 4,115 and not break the high of 4,118 seen on Sept 12, 2022.
4,155 (an extension of 1%) carries some probability, although it should be a head fake.
And keep in mind that daily ‘gap ups’ are ‘backed and filled’ at some time.
At 4,155 the S&P 500 would only be 14% below its all time high, while it will have seen a 19% advance from its October 13, 2022 low.
While such a bounce from 3,491 can be understood, being within 14% of the all-time high is a little difficult to comprehend in light of the 2 most notable headwinds not seen for 40 years…..a substantial change in inflation and the sizeable increase in the cost of capital.
So, whether it’s a further 3% or 4%, it’s a rally to rent rather than own.
November 12, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
An Oversold US 5Y – 3M yield curve is good for SPX longs
October 14, 2022 Leave a comment
Checking in to look at the U.S. 5 year bond yield minus 3 month bill rate (yield curve)
Rather than watching whether this yield curve inverts in order to predict a recession…….this study shows you that when this yield curve trades Oversold on a Weekly basis (irrespective of its percentage spread), it portends the beginning of a new or an extension of an immediately preceding rally in the S&P 500.
The most recent moment occurred this past July.
October 14, ,2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
Notable low for S&P 500 isn’t in yet
September 20, 2022 Leave a comment
The vertical lines show the significance when the Japanese 10 year bond yield is (on a weekly chart) simultaneously OVERSOLD and trading 2.5 standard deviations and BELOW its rolling weekly mean.
Around the same time, the S&P 500 also registers a notable low.
There have been 9 such moments over the past 15 years when probability suggests nibbling and adding to your holdings.
BoJ and Fed news this week will be helpful shaping the JGB yield but this study suggests the S&P 500 low isn’t there yet. This doesn’t necessarily mean a lower low, but rather a ‘notable’ low.
September 20, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
A trough in Bitcoin volatility portends a S&P 500 bottom
September 20, 2022 Leave a comment
Bitcoin’s price action, trend and sentiment suggests it tests somewhere around the US$16,000 mark. +/- $600.
A drop in Bitcoin’s 30 day volatility precedes a trough in the price of BTC/USD which precedes ‘one more decline’ in the S&P 500 before itself finds a floor.
This would put my S&P 500 target around 3,645.
A bottoming process which builds into a rally in these two markets would cause much damage to all those huddled on the other side of the boat.
p.s. The direction Bitcoin also has reasonably good correlation with the Australian Dollar and commodity prices.
September 20, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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