3% more in the S&P 500

I think the S&P 500 rally should stall around 4,115 and not break the high of 4,118 seen on Sept 12, 2022.

4,155 (an extension of 1%) carries some probability, although it should be a head fake.

And keep in mind that daily ‘gap ups’ are ‘backed and filled’ at some time.

At 4,155 the S&P 500 would only be 14% below its all time high, while it will have seen a 19% advance from its October 13, 2022 low.

While such a bounce from 3,491 can be understood, being within 14% of the all-time high is a little difficult to comprehend in light of the 2 most notable headwinds not seen for 40 years…..a substantial change in inflation and the sizeable increase in the cost of capital.

So, whether it’s a further 3% or 4%, it’s a rally to rent rather than own.

November 12, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski


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