Currencies are telling me….

February 12, 2024 Leave a comment

The currency markets are currently telling me that the mood is “risk-off” which opposes (and somewhat belligerent) the mood of ‘glamour’ equity indices barrelling higher.

The Aussie Dollar is aimless with a bias towards lower prices.

Specifically against the USD, I see it visiting the 0.6350 region and ultimately holding 0.6150 (+/- 30 pips).

There is similar pattern recognition in the #AUD/JPY and the AUD/CHF.

February 12, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

#riskmanagement

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , ,

Now, AUD/USD is full

December 29, 2023 Leave a comment

In late August 2023, I wrote that the AUD/USD should hold the 0.63/0.64 mark…..and that I didn’t believe the pundits calls back then that it would trade to 60 cents.

It’s lowest weekly closing price was 0.6295.

Queuing off the AUD/USD

4 months later, the AUDUSD is now trading at 0.6870 which is 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean.

If the strength of the current uptrend wanes, the AUD/USD will lose steam between its current price and 0.70000.

It’s good enough. So far, this has been a 9% move within those 4 months.

Also likely to hamper its progress {sic} will include those same ‘wealth management’ pundits prediction of a 75 cents price.

This advance in the AUD (versus the USD) had a corollary to the ‘risk-on’ feeling that markets exhibited.

It’s pending exhaustion will have the opposite.

December 29, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , ,

Time to watch the AUD again

June 10, 2023 Leave a comment

There is more to this analysis, but the chart and notations below are keeping simple.

Today, the AUD/USD needs to break that most immediate previous high of 0.6818, but I think it’ll peak and exhaust itself at 0.6805 (+/- 10bps)

Watching this currency cross along with the AUD/JPY could provide an interesting analog and correlation to ‘risk’ and a queue on the Nasdaq 100.

June 10, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

Karri Asset Advisors

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Understanding risk/adjusted – Australian Banks

March 23, 2023 Leave a comment

Indeed, there are times when to sell Australian bank shares.

This study below shows moments when the stock price in Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) was stretched.

Ignoring such signals means investors are leaving money ‘at risk’ when probability suggests valuations are full or lower prices beckon.

Irrespective that Australian banks have always traded at a premium to their global peers, resting on the mantra that ‘you can’t go wrong owning the banks’ is false.

And finding solace, that ‘at least I’m receiving my dividends’ is not addressing the risk being taken for such a return.

CBA”s stock price is now trading at the same price as March 2015 (that’s 8 years ago) while Westpac is trading at the same price as 2008, 2010 and 2012.

March 23, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , ,

Don’t take more risk than you need to

December 15, 2020 Leave a comment

I’m re-visiting a decision I made on September 1st, when I decided to sell shares in PayPal.

<original link>

The chart and commentary within is my attempt to say that when a company is fully valued there is diminishing merit in risking your capital when your analysis suggests the reward isn’t so ravishing anymore.

For those interested, since September 1st, PayPal shares advanced 7.8% while the S&P 500 Index rose 3.4%

December 15, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,

Watching the AUDJPY

October 6, 2020 Leave a comment

The AUDJPY….

I’m watching an acute short-term moment on this quite reliable indicator of “risk” or at least market direction and sentiment.

The chart below shows today’s early action of the AUDJPY peppering that descending trend line. Tie that into yesterdays post (link below) and you can watch how other assets react.


https://robzdravevski.com/2020/10/05/short-term-aud-fx-range/

October 6, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

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