Macro Extremes (week ending July 3, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Indonesian 10-year government bond yields

U.S 3-month bill yield *

Cocoa *

Copenhagen’s OMX Index

IBB & NBI biotech ETF’s

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Copper/Gold Ratio *

USD/IDR *

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Spain’s IBEX *

S&P 600 Small Cap

Russell 2000

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nikkei 225 *

And the SOX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Russian 10-year government bond yields *

COP/USD *

IBB, XBI & NBI biotech ETF’s *

Singapore’s Strait Times *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Nickel *

EUR/GBP

HSCEI Index *

Hang Seng Index *

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose and were full of action.

Including U.S. Corporate 5–7-year yields.

While Indian 10’s and Japanese 2’s fell.

The U.S. High Yield Index is showing early signs of a new upward trend.

Japan’s 10-year yield returned to overbought territory.

British 2-year yields mean reverted.

Italy’s 10’s had an outside bullish reversal week.

Polish 10-year yields have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Türkiye’s 10-year bond yield and the U.S. 10-year (and 5-year) inflation breakeven rate rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

And Russia’s 10-year bond yield has climbed for 9 weeks sending yields to 16.7%.

Equities were subdued compared to recent weeks.

The BUX, DJ Industrials, SMI, IBEX along with the IBB and NBI U.S. biotech ETF’s have risen for 4 weeks.

The latter has risen 15% over that time.

Whilst remaining the overbought camp, South Korea’s KOSPI has slumped 11% in the past fortnight.

And the Hang Seng rose to break its 7-week losing streak.

Commodities were quieter.

Coal, Shipping Rates, LNG, Lithium, Silver and Oats were the notable gainers.

Cattle, Aluminium, Urea and Rice were amongst the decliners.

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel and Lean Hogs are no longer oversold.

Coffee is in a 4-week winning streak.

Inversely, the Copper/Gold Ratio has weakened for the past 4 weeks.

While Brent Crude has declined for 5 weeks.

Nickel have fallen for 5 weeks, falling 16% over that time.

Middle Eastern Urea prices have declined for 9 weeks while U.S. Gulf Urea prices are in a 11-week losing streak.

All other streaks not listed in this week’s edition have been broken.

And Lithium Carbonate and Hydroxide are making ‘good shapes’.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie and the Euro were mixed.

The AUD/EUR and AUD/GBP mean reverted.

The Loonie was weaker.

The Swissie was stronger and as such the CHF/USD rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

Pound Sterling was firmer.

And USD/CAD is in a 5-week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Richards Bay Coal 5.6%, Rotterdam Coal 8.1%, Baltic Dry Index 7.7%, Lean Hogs 2.3%, Heating Oil 2.3%, JKM LNG 3.6%, Arabica Coffee 10.3%, JKM LNG in Yen 10.3%, Lithium Carbonate 5.8%, Lithium Hydroxide 6.9%, Newcastle Coal 3%, Natural Gas 1.5%, Orange Juice 15.1%, Robusta Coffee 2.5%, Sugar 2.6%, Gold 1.3%, Tin 3.9%, Gasoil 7.1%, Silver in AUD 4.8%, Silver in USD 5.4%, Oats 6.1%, Wheat 1.7%, All World Developed ex USA 1.8%, AEX 2.1%, AEX 2.5%, BUX 2.4%, CAC 1.5%, DAX 4.5%, DJ Industrials 2%, FCATC 1.5%, MIB 3%, HSCEI 3.2%, Hang Seng 3%, IBB 4,5%, IBEX 2.2%, TAIEX 5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KSE 3.2%, FTSE 250 1.7%, OBX 2.3%, Copenhagen 5.5%, Helsinki 2%, Stockholm 3%, PSE 1.9%, PSI 2.2%, PX 2.1%, SET 4.5%, SMI 1.8%, S&P 500 1.8%, Eurostoxx 50 3.1%, TA35 2.4%, FTSE 100 1.6%, WIG 3%, XBI 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.7% and the ASX Materials rose 2.1%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Palm Oil (1.9%), Cattle (2.7%), Aluminium (2.8%), Nickel (1.8%), U.S. Gulf Urea (3.2%), Rice (2.5%), China A50 (2.4%), EGX (1.8%), KOSPI (3.8%) and the SOX Index fell 4.4%.

July 5, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au