Trying to hear what's not being said
August 5, 2024 Leave a comment
I often mention mean reversion (or convergence) in my posts.
Here is a monthly chart of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX).
I think we’ll see it somewhere near 4,000 points.
Perhaps we’ll see ASML trade down to EUR 415 and AMD to $64.50….
August 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 26, 2024 Leave a comment
The two most notable parabolic price moves in recent times is being seen in the price of Cocoa and NVIDIA shares.
Both prices are trading at stratospheric percentages above their 200 week moving averages.
Cocoa is trading 3.5 standard deviations above its rolling monthly mean and even more astonishing, at US$9,950 per ton, it is more expensive than Copper which is trading at US$8,870 per ton.
Mean reversion or mean convergence?
Gravity is real.
December 23, 2023 Leave a comment
Reprising my Microsoft #msft note from a month ago, I’m positing that the stock may trade down to the $290 region (+/- $15) by the end of Q1 2024.
Accordingly, we coud see Nvidia #nvda trade down to $307 into the 2nd quarter of 2024.
That would be a decline of 37% from today’s price.
That would give the Nasdaq 100 a bit of a jolt.
December 23, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 12, 2023 Leave a comment
The study below reminds me which atmosphere stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) are trading within.
It can be useful to those who use words such as “momentum” or “break-outs” as reasons for their investment or speculation decisions.
This study can also be applied to a bunch of the fabled tech darlings.
Keep in mind that mean reversion is a real thing.
What if NVDA’s stock price fell to $240?
While I see demand in certain industries and products, I’m also warning that valuations matter and the world won’t always need a new gadget let alone do we need another subscription software service.
I doubt that productivity, convenience or joy can be increased commensurately.
The second attached study features the Nasdaq 100.
September 12, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 25, 2023 Leave a comment
The chart below shows the percentage that Nvidia (NVDA:US) is trading above its 200 week moving average.
In 2002 I wrote of Nvidia’s stretched price action and how mean reversion beckoned.
Then in his note below highlights the decline the stock should make as it was heading towards its 200 week moving average.
Since that mean reversion, we’ve seen another parabolic price move.
While it’s a stupendous result for those who accumulated the stock down near that $120 level, I’m miffed by the motivations of the buyers in today’s market with the stock in the $380 price region.
The law of large numbers also comes to mind as Nvidia approaches a market capitalisation of $800 billion.
Caveat Emptor !
May 25, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 5, 2023 Leave a comment
In late 2021 and early 2022, I wrote often about the peak in the equity prices of semiconductor companies.
Then this note on October 11, 2022 (only 4 months ago) suggested a pending low in those related stocks.
Specifically, I wrote that I was looking for a low in the price of Nvidia stock between $105 – $108 as a buying point.
The next day, it traded to a low of $108.13…..
This week, it was time to get out again.
The intra-week high of $219.49 told me that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen or had.
This call is still valid at the most recent closing price of $211.
Beyond my various reasonings suggesting a current peak……a 102% advance in 4 months should satisfy most {sic} all.
Or put another way, as stellar as the return is, this is a ‘get out of jail free’ card for many, while for anyone who bought this stock before October 2021 remains underwater.
If it’s not a current peak, I am definitely not a buyer of Nvidia with ‘new money’ at the prevailing prices.
The same goes for the SOX (the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index)
February 5, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 14, 2022 Leave a comment
The Nvidia (NVDA:US) mean reversion is almost done.
It doesn’t necessarily mean that its 200 week moving average is the place to buy, as it may overshoot to the $103-$115 mark…..
this chart did tell you that it was dangerous chasing and buying this stock at stretched valuations as it soared way above its 200 WMA.
September 14, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 