Trying to hear what's not being said
October 29, 2024 Leave a comment
Last week, the share price of Gold Fields Limited (GFI:US) didn’t make a new ‘higher high’.
While several weeks earlier, it made a ‘lower low’.
To boot, its trading at various ‘overbought’ extremes and the there are gaps below waiting to be filled.
I’d say that the ‘fat part’ of the trade has been seen.
I’ll be interested buying it below $13.
October 29, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 23, 2024 Leave a comment
This is when gold producers should be locking in their selling prices.
Perhaps to offer their equity as currency to acquire non-profitable mines.
Some companies may even ‘trick’ investors (and reward bankers) by raising capital at this moment.
Gold prices are resembling parabolas,
and the study below can’t convince me towards the probabilities of buying Gold ‘with new money’ today or tomorrow.
While animal spirits are absent and prices can become giddy, mean reversion should be respected.
But not all the equity prices of gold producers are hitting all-time highs.
Why?
Because profitable mining projects remain difficult.
p.s. for some perspective, Gold (as priced in USD) has risen 14% over the past 3 months (I just chose an arbitrary starting point)……many things have had similar returns including the S&P 500 and the price of Lean Hogs.
October 23, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
September 3, 2024 Leave a comment
I’ll still waiting for lower uranium, copper and iron ore prices.
Equally, I’m not interested in oil or gold unless they are 20% lower than today’s price.
It all may sound odd as I’ve been warming towards commodities for the past few months…….it’s just not these ones, yet!
September 3, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 30, 2024 Leave a comment
One of my outlier calls is that Gold (as priced in USD) trades down to the US$1,940 region (+/- $30).
It’s currently trading at US$2,390.
It falls under the category of markets going to where they can do the most damage.
p.s. my Oil call for mid $40’s is another.
July 30, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 11, 2024 Leave a comment
The Gold price in AUD has risen yet the equity price in gold mining companies are lagging and subdued.
Here is a study of the stock price of ASX listed Evolution Mining and the Gold price in AUD.
Mining is difficult…..when publicly listed, you are forced to produce, irrespective of the costs.
And it matters how an investor expresses their view relating to a particular theme or idea.
July 11, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 29, 2024 Leave a comment
I recall ‘gold bugs’ commonly telling us that owning Gold is a hedge against inflation and a weak economy and stock market.
Lately, that story hasn’t been applicable.
Just keep this in mind when the next time that the financial media try to frame it as so.
May 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 30, 2024 Leave a comment
For buyers of buying gold related equities at current levels, probability isn’t stacked your way.
“They” are closer to being a sell, than a buy.
If expressed in the form of the GDXJ (Van Eck Junior Gold Miners ETF), I think I’ll be able to buy it 25% cheaper than todays $42.67.
And be careful of historical charts showing where prices “once came from” and phrases such as ‘breakouts’ and “resistance lines”, whether its monthly or weekly or daily or hourly………
Caveat Emptor!
April 30, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 4, 2024 Leave a comment
I wrote this note in late September 2023, suggesting that it was too early to buy #gold and that prices had a little lower to travel.
It was too early and prices did fall.
The date of that note (September 22, 2023) are highlighted within the charts below.
Also in that note, I was looking for the price of #Newmont (NEM:US) to trade down to $32.50.
It has now done so…..but I don’t think it has bottomed.
I’ll look for lower prices in Newmont stock before becoming interested.
As for the gold price, AUD gold is becoming ‘full’ and while CAD and USD Gold may trend higher, this is not an entry point for me, but merely a mid to late stage participatory trend.
You don’t have to be there because there are other #commodities to consider.
March 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 8, 2023 Leave a comment
I’ve been subtly chirping about my interest in Palladium and Platinum prices.
For those you like pairs trades, I see a Short Gold / Long Platinum opportunity.
While this may be sacrilege for those nutty gold bugs to read, I’m being rather objective.
The chart below shows Platinum and Gold plotted over each other while the lower study is the correlation coefficient.
Just because they are both precious metals, it doesn’t mean they move in tandem let alone correlated.
The rectangles show not too many moments when the correlation was close to 1.
Otherwise, there were many times when Platinum and Gold were negatively correlated.
December 8, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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