Trying to hear what's not being said
April 15, 2024 Leave a comment
The former #Shell CEO thinks the #SHEL stock price is ‘massively undervalued’.
https://www.ft.com/content/b9d3c147-b74c-470c-b9c7-9cba55efd38a
No it’s not.
See you somewhere around at GBP 21.70, later in the year.
April 15, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 30, 2024 Leave a comment
What if I don’t want to own and drive an electric vehicle?
I think the internal combustion engine is being discriminated against.
What if specialty fuels solve the lower emissions equation?
Why have #ethanol and #biofuels seemingly been removed from the vernacular?
And what if #hydrogen becomes a ‘thing’?
In amongst the hypocrisy of the #carbon ‘intensity’ that an #electricvehicle requires (or attracts), the internal #combustion #engine is not the ogre for those concerned….it is the #fuel or #energy required to fill up (or recharge) the vehicle.
What if my examples provide cleaner sources of propulsion than the mystical trickle of #electricity into an #EV?
then those fuels still require ‘combustion’…….
#ICE
#energy
March 19, 2024 Leave a comment
The run in Copper has been seen and it may be full, for the time being.
On July 18, 2022 (20 months ago), I signalled a long trade in Copper expressed through the shares of #Sandfire Resources (SFR.ASX).
Since then, #SFR‘s stock price has risen from $3.75 to its current level of $8.54.
The ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.
Today’s price suggests a stock price which is trading at the upper end of its extremes.
On a weekly basis, SFR.ASX is overbought, trading at 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean and it’s at a stretched percentage above its 200 week moving average.
The hubbub around the copper price (and related companies) paints a similar picture, while I specifically think there is a bull trap in #HG1!
In corporate finance land, this is a time when its advisable for copper related companies to conduct a capital raising (new share issuance) to either reduce debt or fund capital expenditures plans or perhaps use your (improved) currency, name your shares to make an acquisition.
March 19, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 18, 2024 Leave a comment
Natural Gas prices are around $1.70.
What if they fall to $1.20…..well, it could present at attractive asymmetric long entry point.
In this week’s edition of Macro Extremes I wrote…….
Henry Hub Natural Gas prices fell 8% to close at an all-time low. This is another example of a parabolic price move being thumped. I’m watching closely for developing strength in this downward trend. Should it gather steam, a visit to $1.20 wouldn’t be out of the question. That’s quite move from $11 from only 20 months ago.
#Naturalgas traded to $11 when the market thought Europe would freeze as a result of a Russian gas squeeze.
With such an extraordinary low price, such cheap #gas makes renewable energy not so feasible and reiterates Natural Gas role through any process of the #energy transition.
March 18, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 20, 2024 Leave a comment
Something looks undone between the price of #Woodside #Energy (WDS.ASX) and the Henry Hub #Naturalgas price.
You find this similar picture applies to the equity prices of other energy companies.
#correlation
February 20, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 18, 2024 Leave a comment
The Henry Hub Natural Gas futures contract price traded to an all time low this past week.
The circle in the chart below denotes the moment when the world thought Europe was going to freeze to death.
February 18, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 15, 2024 Leave a comment
My December 4, 2023 note wrote of my expectation that WTI Crude Oil price (then $75) would trade down to $70 within a 10 day period.
It soon did.
My long position at that $70 entry price remains light and participatory.
While the strength of the downward trend wanes, it does remain intact, thus requiring respect.
The current price action in Oil is dependant on whether it makes ‘higher highs’ or ‘lower lows’.
January 15, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 7, 2023 Leave a comment
WTI Crude Oil saw the $70 target within 3 days.
This post link alluded to seeing it within “next 10 days”.
The price is now $69.20, at the time of writing.
Now, I’m thinking the next move for WTI Crude Oil is towards $67.80 – $65.90 area, which may be seen quickly, perhaps the end of Monday’s U.S. trading session.
My buying interest is heightened.
Interestingly, WTI Crude Oil prices are in their 7th consecutive week of declines and now I don’t see any geopolitical risk premium.
December 7, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 7, 2023 Leave a comment
I think that energy prices are in the latter part of the larger mean reversion that I have been waiting to play out.
While Crude Oil, Gasoline, Diesel and Heating Oil prices look like having more downside and are confirming downward trends, my posture, at this end of the pendulum is being a buyer rather than ‘shorting’.
On a daily trading basis, Henry Hub Natural Gas is my nearest buying candidate.
Following today’s 5% decline (currently trading at $2.57), whether it tickles the $2.47 region is myopic. It has fully retraced the 45% advance which commenced in September 2023 along with ‘backing and filling’ a large gap.
Although, this may be a short-term trade where I scalp some returns, while I keep in mind that $2.10 could be seen if certain trend indicators exhibit strength.
But I am in a broader territory where I’m a longer-term accumulator.
December 7, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 4, 2023 Leave a comment
WTI Crude is ‘looseley’ trading 15% below the price it saw on the first trading day following Hamas’ attack on Israel.
And Brent Crude is doing a similar thing.
While my previous writings have re-iterated the peril of ‘trading the headlines’, for those euphoric and momentum buyers of Crude Oil are wearing some pain.
An announced OPEC+ production cut has provided oil price with any interim support. Possibly another headline traded by many.
I’m looking for a WTI Crude price to visit the $70 mark before possible buy orders are placed.
While that is 5% below the current $73.70 price, it could see that level within the next 10 days.
December 4, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 