Macro Extremes (week ending November 22, 2024)

November 24, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Cocoa

JKM LNG in Yen

Natural Gas

Dutch TTF Gas *

CAD/EUR *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Gold as priced in AUD, CHF, EUR & GBP

KBW Bank Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

Nasdaq Transports Index

Toronto’s TSX *

Australian Financials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Japanese 2 & 5 year bond yields 

Arabica Coffee

DXY Index

Hungary’s BUX Index *

KRE Regional Banks Index *

Pakistan’s KSE *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

SEK/USD *

Nasdaq Biotechnology Index

NIFTY

Denmark’s Copenhagen OMX 25 *

Poland’s WIG Index

Vietnam

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Copper/Gold Ratio

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

EUR/USD

RMB/USD *

DKK/USD *

Notes & Ideas:

Most government bond yields fell.

The few yields that rose were the Canadian, Danish, Finnish, Japanese, Russian, Swedish and U.S. 2’s.

Chilean & U.S. 2’s have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

The U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 4 months,

Japanese 2’s are in a 4 week rising streak. They have risen for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

U.S. 10 year minus Euro 10 year bond yield spread has climbed for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

and the U.S. 5 year inflation break-even rate has nearly completed an upward mean reversion.

Equities were mostly firmer.

Notably, financials appear in the overbought category.

Brazil’s BOVESPA had a bullish outside reversal.

Tel Aviv 35 Index fell and broke its 5 week winning streak.

The PSI & SMI rose and broke their 4 week losing streaks.

Chinese, Hong Kong, French and Italian indices were weaker.

Helsinki and the CAC are in 5 week losing streaks.

The former has fallen for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

HSCEI has sunk for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

And the S&P MidCap 400 long trade may be coming to an end.

Nearly all Commodity prices were stronger. 

All the precious metals bounced along with Oil and Gas prices.

Cocoa, Orange Juice, Coffee & Hogs also gained.

WTI Crude had a bullish reversal outside week.

Natural Gas spiked to overbought

Uranium, Lumber and Soybeans were among the small list of losers.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 12% to halve the previous fortnight gains.

Copper is nearing its lowest close since March 2024.

Silver broke its 4 week losing streak.

Sugar is in a 7 week losing streak.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 26 weeks being oversold,

while Lithium Hydroxide is showing some life, it has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 77 consecutive weeks.

And Tin is nearing an oversold reading.

Currencies were active again, again.

Several pairs are appearing in thus weeks list.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 12 months and is in a 8 week rising streak.

AUD rose, breaking some losing streaks.

The Canadian Loonie rose, again.

The Swiss fell, so much that the CHF/USD has slumped for 6 weeks straight and for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

The Colombian Peso is in a 4 week losing streak and has fallen for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

China’s Yuan has fallen for 6 straight weeks versus the USD.

The Euro was weaker.

GBP was most weaker too., The GBP/USD is in a 8 week losing streak.

The MYR/USD broke its 7 week declining streak.

NZD/USD has sunk for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

And the Philippine Peso has made a new ‘lower low’ versus the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 3%, Brent Crude Oil 5.4%, Cocoa 5.4%, WTI Crude Oil 6.5%, Cotton 2.7%, Lean Hogs 2.7%, Heating Oil 4.7%, JKM LNG 3.8%, Arabica Coffee 6.9%, Cattle 1.6%, LNG JKM in Yen 8.5%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.3%, Natural Gas 10.8%, Nickel 1.9%, Orange Juice 5.3%, Palladium 8.1%, Platinum 3.2%, Gasoline 4.9%, Robust Coffee 4.4%, S&P GSCI 3.8%, CRB Index 3.6%, Gasoil 4%, Silver in AUD 3%, Silver in USD 3.6%, Gold in AUD 5.3%, Gold in CAD 5.2%, Gold in CHF 6.7%, Gold in EUR 7.2%, Gold in GBP 6.7%, Gold in USD 6%, Gold in ZAR 5.5%, Wheat 1.9%, AEX 2%, KBW Bank Index 2%, BUX 2.3%, DJ Industrials 2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.8%, Russell 2000 4.5%, Nasdaq Composite 1.7%, KRE Regional Bank Index 3%, KSE 3.2%, KOSPI 3.5%, S&P MidCap 400 4.2%, Nasdaq Biotech Index 3%, Nasdaq 100 1.9%, Oslo 1.6%, SA40 1.8%, Sensex 2%, SOX 2.5%, S&P 500 1.7%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, TSX 2.2%, FTSE 100 2.5%, ASX Financials 1.8%, ASX 200 1.3% and the ASX Materials Index rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (11.7%), Lumber (2.6%), Aluminium (3.1%), Uranium (6.1%), Oats (1.8%), Soybean (1.5%), Shanghai Composite (1.9%), CSI 300 (2.6%), China A50 (1.8%), Egypt (2.6%) and Italy’s MIB fell 2%. 

November 24, 2024

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending November 15, 2024)

November 17, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Japanese 5 year bond yields

Cocoa

Coffee

Lumber *

Dutch TTF Gas

CAD/EUR

USD/DKK

USD/SEK

Dow Jones Transports *

S&P SmallCap 600 *

Russell 2000 *

S&P MidCap 400 *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate 

Pakistan’s KSE *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Toronto’s TSX

Australian Financials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Japanese 2 year bond yields 

KBW Bank Index *

KRE Regional Banks Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Israel’s TA35 *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Tin

COP/USD

EUR/USD

Austria’s ATX Index

Denmark’s Copenhagen OMX 25 *

FTSE 100

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 3 month government bill yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

RMB/USD *

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields were mixed.

American, Australian and Asian yields rose, resuming their recent climb, while European yields fell.

Last week’s overbought entrants are no longer so.

US10Y – AU10Y spread isn’t oversold.

Chilean and U.S. 2 year yield has risen for 4 straight weeks, with the latter rising for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

U.S. 10 year minus Euro 10 year bond yield spread has climbed for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

The U.S. 2’s are their highest weekly close in 4 months,

And the yield for the U.S. 10’s and 30’s are at their highest since late May 2024.

Equities fell.

Financials were the exception.

Chinese, Semiconductor and MidCap indices were amongst the largest losers.

The former are still likely to ‘back and fill’ recent gaps.

Indonesia’s IDX, Philippines PSI, Denmark’s OMX25 and Switzerland’s SMI have fallen for 4 straight weeks. 

The latter has sunk 6% over the past 4 weeks.

The Dutch AEX is in a 5 week losing streak.

Helsinki has fallen for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

Inversely, the Tel Aviv35 Index and Czechia’s PX have respectively risen for 5 and 6 weeks. 

The KOSPI is near an oversold extreme,

And the Nasdaq Biotech Index dramatically mean reverted (tanking 10%) influenced by the potential policies and positions taken or held by the incoming Health secretariat appointment of Robert F Kennedy Jr.

Commodity prices were mostly weaker, according to the broader indices.

Under the covers, Cocoa, Coffee, Gas, Uranium and Baltic Dry Index rose strongly.

On the downside, Oil, Cotton, Platinum, Gold, Silver, Wheat, Palladium, Copper and Tin were amongst the notable decliners.

The Baltic Dry Index has soared 28% in 2 weeks.

Copper is nearing its lowest close since March 2024.

Palladium has slumped 23% in 3 weeks.

Gold in USD and Platinum have fallen 7% and 9% respectively over the same time.

The DXY hasn’t declined for 7 weeks.

Gold isn’t overbought anymore nor are Lean Hogs.

Rice bounced out from oversold and broke its 7 week losing streak.

JKM LNG could new a new long prospect 

And Sugar is in a 6 week losing streak.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 25 weeks being oversold,

And Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 70 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active again.

Several pairs are appearing in thus weeks list.

The DXY Index is at its highest close in 12 month and is in a 7 week rising streak.

AUD was weaker against all except for the GBP.

AUD/USD has sunk for 6 of the past 7 weeks.

The Loonie rose everywhere except versus the USD.

The CAD/USD is also closing in on an extreme reading.

And both the GBP/USD and MYR/USD are in 7 week declining streaks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Rotterdam Coal 2.6%, Baltic Dry Index 19.4%, Cocoa 22.2%, DXY 1.8%, Arabic Coffee 12.8%, Lumber 1.9%, JKM LNG in Yen 5.5%, Lithium Carbonate 1.5%, Natural Gas 5.8%, Orange Juice 3.5%, Robusta Coffee 9.1%, Dutch TTF Gas 9.8%, Uranium 8%, Rice 4.7%, KBW Bank Index 2.3%, Budapest 2%, Oslo 2%, Tel Aviv 1.7%, BIST 2.2% and the ASX Financials rose 2.1%. 

 

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (1.5%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.1%), Brent Crude Oil (4.2%), WTI Crude Oil (4.8%), Cotton (5.8%), Copper (5.6%), Heating Oil (2.9%), Lithium Hydroxide (7.1%), Tin (9.2%), Nickel (5.5%), Palladium (4.9%), Platinum (3.4%), Gasoline (3.1%), S&P GSCI (2.1%), Silver in AUD (1.6%), Silver in AUD (3.4%), Gold in AUD (2.7%), Gold in CAD (3.3%), Gold in CHF (3.1%), Gold in EUR (2.9%), Gold in USD (4.5%), Corn (1.6%), Soybeans (3.1%), Wheat (6.2%), Shanghai (3.5%), CSI 300 (3.3%), All World Developed ex USA (2.6%), DJ Industrials (1.3%), CAC (1%), HSCEI (6.5%), Hang Seng (6.3%), Jakarta (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (3%), Russell 2000 (4%), TAEIX (3.4%), Nasdaq Composite (3.2%), KLSE (1.8%), KOSPI (5.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.7%), Mexico (2.7%), Nasdaq Biotech (10.2%), Nasdaq 100 (3.2%), Nikkei 225 (2.2%), Nifty (2.6%), Copenhagen (2.2%), Stockholm (1.9%), PSI (4.3%), Sensex (2.4%), SMI (1.5%), SOX (8.6%), S&P 500 (2.1%), Nasdaq Transports (2%), Vietnam (2.7%), WIG (3.6%), ASX Materials (5.6%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 1.5%. 

November 17, 2024

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 20, 2024)

September 22, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium 

Sugar

AUD/CAD

ZAR/USD

IBEX

Copenhagen

PSE

Nasdaq Transportation Index

Thailand’s SET Index *

And Australia’s ASX 200

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government yield

Arabica and Robusta Coffee *

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, EUR & USD *

MYR/USD *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

And the ASX Financials Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. 2 year government bond yield *

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CFR China Iron Ore *

USD/CNH

USD/IDR

USD/SGD *

Shanghai Composite *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 3 month bill yield

Notes & Ideas:

During a week when the investors were awaiting a lowering of the American central bank interest rates…….. Global government bond yields rose.

Chilean and Swiss 10’s yields aren’t oversold anymore.

Short dated Japanese yields bucked the global weekly trend. They fell.

The U.S. yield curve remains overbought (10 year – 2 year) as is the U.S. 10Y – 5Y spread.

The U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearing an oversold extreme.

And incidentally, Brazil’s central bank hiked their policy interest rate.

Equities rose again.

We are seeing more indices entering overbought territory.

At this stage, most of them are in Asia driven by their stronger currencies.

Singapore’s Strait Times is in a 6 week winning streak.

Some Australian indices also feature in this week’s list.

The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 broke their 4 week losing streaks.

And any of those which were oversold last week have bounced, such as the KOSPI.

Commodities mostly rose.

Gold and Palladium remain in overbought territory.

Sugar soared 19% for the week.

Lumber and Heating Oil moved out of overbought territory.

U.S. Henry Hub Natural Gas has risen 14% over the past 3 weeks.

Wheat broke its 3 week winning streak.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 17 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 62 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies feature heavily in this week’s entrants of extremes.

The Aussie rose while the Canadian Loonie fell, again. Confusing perhaps?

The decline in the CAD juxtaposed the risk-on feeling for the week.

While the Yen’s decline of 2%-3% across a range of pairs and weakness in the Swissie confirmed the ‘risk-on’ mood.

The USD was generally weaker and is prominently oversold against various Asian currencies.

And the British Pound is nearing an overbought level again the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.1%, Baltic Dry Index 4.6%, WTI Crude Oil 5.3%, Cotton 5.3%, Lean Hogs 4.8%, Copper 2.5%, Heating Oil 3.5%, Lumber 2.3%, Cattle 2.5%, LNG JKM in Yen 4.4%, Newcastle Coal 2.9%, Natural Gas 5.6%, Nickel 4.1%, Gasoline 5.3%, Sugar 19.2%, S&P GSCI 2.8%, CRB Index 3.1%, Brent Crude 3.6%, Gasoil 2.5%, Gold in CHF 1.8%, Gold in USD 1.7%, Rice 1.9%, KBW Bank Index 4.7%, DJ Industrials 1.6%, HSCEI 5.1%, Hang Seng 5.1%, IBEX 1.9%, IDX 1.6%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.3%, MOEX 3.9%, Russell 2000 2.2%, TAEIX 1.8%, Nasdaq Composite 1.5%, KSE 3.5%, S&P MidCap 400 2%, Nikkei 225 3.1%, Stockholm 2.1%, PSI 3.3%, South Africa 2%, Sensex 2%, SET 1.9%, S&P 500 1.4%, STI 1.7%, ASX Financials 2.4%, ASX Small Caps 1.8% and Turkiye’s BIST rose 2.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

JKM LNG (2.7%), Arabica Coffee (3.4%), Platinum (2.5%), Robusta Coffee (4%), Dutch TTG Gas (3.4%), Corn (2.8%), Oats (2.7%), Wheat (4.4%), BOVESPA (2.8%), Copenhagen (2.6%) and the Tel Aviv 35 fell 2.8%

September 22, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending September 13, 2024)

September 15, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Palladium 

Thailand’s SET Index *

Singapore’s Strait Times

Overbought (RSI > 70)

SHY *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government yield

MYR/USD *

Arabica & Robusta Coffee * 

Gold as priced in AUD, CAD and USD

NIFTY
SENSEX

ASX Financials Index *

And the ASX Industrials Index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Gold in EUR

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

WTI Crude Oil

Gasoline

S&P GSCI Index

Brent Crude Oil

Gasoil 

KOSPI

Oversold (RSI < 30)

U.S. and German 2 year government bond yield

Australian Coking Coal *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

CFR China Iron Ore *

AUD/THB *
USD/THB

USD/SGD

Shanghai Composite

CSI 300 

MOEX

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

U.S. 3 month t-bill yield *

Swiss and Chilean 10 year government bond yield

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Heating Oil *

Notes & Ideas:

Global government bond yields fell, again, adding to the previous weeks decline.

Belgian, Brazilian and Finnish yields did the opposite.

The yield for the U.S. 10 year yields are at their lowest since May 2023.

While the U.S. yield curve is overbought.

U.S. 5 year minus 5 year breakeven inflation rate is nearing an oversold extreme.

And Chile’s and Switzerland’s 10 year bond yield are oversold.

Equities had a tremendous week, recovering last week’s declines.

For example, the Nasdaq Composite recovered all of last weeks loss.

The Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 are in 4 week losing streaks.

South Korea’s KOSPI is unloved.

Russia’s MOEX broke its 7 week losing streak.

The SOX soared 10% to nearly offset last weeks 12% tanking.

Singapore’s Strait Times is in a 5 week winning streak.

And some Indian and Aussie indices are overbought.

Commodities mostly rose.

Gold returns to overbought territory.

Silver rose 10% while Palladium double that performance for the week.

The latter appears in this weeks list.

Other notable advancers included Cocoa, Oats, Wheat, Aluminium and Coffee.

Coffee is overbought again.

Wheat has risen 12% over the past 3 weeks.

Inversely, selected energy contracts are oversold.

Gasoline declines to complete a mean reversion.

U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 16 weeks being oversold.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 61 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies set the mood for risk.

The Aussie rose while the Canadian Loonie fell.

The decline in the CAD juxtaposed the risk-on feeling for the week.

Adding to the mixed signals, we saw the Yen advance while risk assets prospered.

MXN/USD rallied 4% for the week and isn’t oversold anymore.

The USD is oversold agains the roaring Baht, Ringgit and Singapore Dollar.

And the Indonesian Rupiah broke its 6 weeks rising streak against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 3.4%, Aluminium 5.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.6%, Cocoa 8.7%, WTI Crude Oil 1.5%, Cotton 2.9%, Copper 4%, Arabica Coffee 9.9%, Tin 3%, Palladium 19.2%, Gasoline 1.6%, Robusta Coffee 10.4%, Sugar 1.8%, S&P GSCI 1.6%, CRB Index 2.6%, Silver in AUD 9.4%, Silver in USD 10%, Gold in AUD 2.7%, Gold in CAD 3.3%, Gold in CHF 4%, Gold in GBP 3.3%, Gold in EUR 3.4%, Gold in USD 3.2%, Gold in ZAR 2.7%, Corn 1.7%, Oats 7%, Wheat 4.9%, AEX 2.3%, CAC 1.5%, DAX 2.2%, DJ Industrials 2.6%, DJ Transports 2%, IBEX 3.3%, IDX 1.7%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.5%, Russell 2000 4.3%, TAEIX 1.5%, Nasdaq Composite 6%, KRE Regional Banks 1.8%, FTSE 250 2%, S&P MidCap 400 3.3%, Mexico 1.8%, Nasdaq Biotechs 4.2%, Nasdaq 100 5.9%, Nifty 2%, Oslo 1.6%, Copenhagen 4.3%, Stockholm 1.8%, Sensex 2.1%, SOX 10%, S&P 500 4%, Chile 1.7%, STI 3.1%, TSX 3.5%, ASX 200 1.1%, ASX Materials 4.2% and ASX Small Caps rose 3.1%  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (2.6%), European Hot Rolled Coil Steel (2.1%), Lumber (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (4.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (2.3%), Urea Middle East (1.9%), CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite (2.2%), China A50 (1.8%), Egypt (1.7%) and Vietnam fell 1.8%

September 15, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending July 19, 2024)

July 21, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year government bond yield spread *

GBP/EUR

GBP/USD *

KBW Bank Index

DJ Industrials *

S&P Small Cap 600 Index

Russell 2000 *

KRE Regional Bank Index *

S&P MidCap 400 Index

Nasdaq Biotechnology Index *

Toronto’s TSX

Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 index

And Australia’s ASX 200

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year government bond yields *

Robusta Coffee *

Hungary’s BUX *

Pakistan’s KSE *

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

And Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

None

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

British 2 year government bond yield 

New Zealand and Swedish 10 year government bond yield

CAD/GBP *

CAD/EUR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Cotton

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Corn *

BRL/USD

And the Chinese RMB *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Soybeans *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed. 

Most of the European yields fell while yields in the America’s rose…..and many of them took a break from their fortnightly trends.  

Except for the Belgium, Danish and Finnish 10’s.

The Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread broke its 5 consecutive weeks of advance.

And the Chilean 2’s are in a 5 week winning streak.

Equities were mostly lower.

The prominent risers for the week were U.S. banks, U.S. Transports and U.S. small and mid caps.

Last week’s edition alerted readers to the outside bullish outside reversal week performed by the  Dow Jones Transports and Nasdaq Transports Indices. They rose impressively this past week.

The rotation from large caps into the smaller and mid cap companies continued.

China’s CSI 300 has risen 3% over the past fortnight.

While Indonesia’s IDX 30 has a 5 week winning streak intact and Philippine’s PSE has climbed for 4 straight weeks.

Indonesia’s main index has climbed 10% over the past 5 weeks and the U.S. KRE Regional Banks index has risen 20% over the same time.

And the DAX broke its 4 week winning streak.

Commodities continued its bias for lower prices.

Hogs, Lumber and oats were amongst the few winners.

Lean Hogs climbed 6%, nearly halving the 15% decline seen over the previous 13 weeks.

The losers were much more widespread, with Aluminium, Copper, Coking Coal, Oil, Gases, Grains, the PGM’s and Nickel.

Cocoa, Tin, Silver also joined the notable declining brigade.

Cotton is back in oversold territory.

Natural Gas has posted a 34% loss during the previous 5 weeks.

Heating Oil has fallen 7% in the past fortnight.

Aluminium has sunk 14% over the past 8 weeks.

Soybeans have declined for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 53 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

The Aussie and the Loonie were both weaker

The anomaly was the CAD rising against the AUD and breaking 5 consecutive weeks of declines.

Inversely, it broke its 5 week winning streak against the USD.

Some CAD pairs appear in this week’s list of extremes.

The AUD broke its 4 week rising streak against all, except versus the Kiwi.  

And the British Pound continues to hold up.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Lean Hogs 6.3%, Lumber 3.2%, LNG in Yen 3.1%, Newcastle Coal 2.7%, Oats 2.4%, CSI 300 1.9%, KBW Banks 3.3%, Budapest 1%, DJ Transports 1.7%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, Russell 2000 1.9%, KRE Regional Banks 7.5%, PSE 2.2% and the Nasdaq Transports rose 2.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2.4%), Aluminium (5.2%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.2%), Baltic Dry Index (4.8%), Cocoa (7.6%), China Coking Coal (4.4%), WTI Crude Oil (2.7%), Copper (7.8%), Heating Oil (3.4%), Coffee (4.2%), Lithium (2.4%), Tin (8%), Natural Gas (8.6%), Nickel (3%), Orange Juice (3.7%), Palladium (7.2%), Platinum (3.9%), Gasoline (3%), Robusta Coffee (1.9%), Sugar (2.8%), SPGSCI (2.9%), Brent Crude Oil (2.8%), Gasoil (3.1%), Uranium (2.4%), Silver in AUD (3.7%), Silver in USD (5%), Corn (2.9%), Rice (2.7%), Soybeans (2.8%), All Developed World ex USA (2.1%), AEX 4%, DAX (3.1%), HSCEI (5.6%), Hang Seng (4.8%), IBEX (1.5%), Nasdaq Composite (3.7%), KOSPI (2.2%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (4%), Nikkei 225 (2.8%), Copenhagen (2.9%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (2.3%), South Africa (2.4%), SOX (8.8%), S&P 500 (2%), Straits Times (1.4%), TAEIX (4.4%) and the S&P Materials Index fell 2.2%.

July 21, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 14, 2024)

June 16, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Spanish, French, Greek and Italian 10 year government bond yields

Natural Gas

India’s Nifty and Sensex indices

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

Biodiesel *

Rubber *

AEX *

KSE

S&P 500

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Nasdaq Composite

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Nasdaq 100

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *

U.S. 10 year inflation break-even rate

U.S. 5 year inflation break-even rate

Lean Hogs

CAD/GBP *

COP/USD

EUR/GBP

DJ Transports Index

BOVESPA *

Mexico *

Indonesia’s IDX

And Thailand’s SET equity index *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chilean 2 year government bond yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

BRL/USD

PHP/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

RMB/USD

MXN/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mostly lower, again and notably so.

While readers will see a few European yields in the overbought extremes category; those moments were seen earlier in the week.

Yields have been easing lately, which has been commensurably seen with the Copper/Gold Ratio declining for the past 4 consecutive weeks.

German 5’s and 10’s had outside bearish reversal weeks.

Chilean 2 year yields have fallen for 8 consecutive weeks. Their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.

The U.S. 10 year yield minus German 10 year yield spread snapped its 8 week declining streak.

And Japanese yields declined for another week.

Equities were mostly weaker, as seen in the All-World ex-USA Index’s decline of 2.4%.

The exception was the Nasdaq, SOX, TAEIX and the S&P 500.

All 4 indices appear in overbought extreme categories, as do India’s Sensex and Nifty.

Amazingly, the Nasdaq 100 has soared 15% in the past 8 weeks.

France’s CAC and Italy’s MIB had a terrible week, both sinking 6%.

The Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, ATX, Bovespa, Helsinki, SET, TSX and the ASX XMJ are in 4 week losing streaks.

While, the Nasdaq Transports Index and FTSE 100 are in 5 week losing streaks.

Budapest and Amsterdam are at all-time highs.

Commodities were mixed.

Cocoa, Oil, Livestock, Gases, Rice and Urea gained the most.

Cocoa has risen 37% over the past 4 weeks of its new winning streak.

While Robusta Coffee snapped its 4 weeks of consecutive advance.

Coal, Aluminium, Nickel were amongst the weakest performers for the week, again.

Lumber and Steel prices remain oversold for a few weeks now. I’ll presume this is a positive for construction industry?

Some grains were weaker too.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 48 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action. 

The Aussie was higher.

The CHF/AUD has a 4 week rising streak.

The Euro was weaker as was the Yen.

And the PHP/USD broke its 5 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 3.6%, Cocoa 5.9%, WTI Crude Oil 3.9%, Lean Hogs 4.9%, Heating Oil 4.9%, Cattle 3.4%, LNG in Yen 8.8%, Tin 1.9%, Newcastle Coal 1.6%, Sugar 2.3%, S&P GSCI 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.8%, Urea U.S. Gulf 5.1%, Brent Crude 3.9%, Gasoil 5.5%, Gold in CAD 1.5%, Gold in EUR 2.6%, Gold in GBP 2%, Gold in USD 1.7%, Rice 3.5%, Nasdaq Composite 3.2%, Pakistan’s KSE 4%, Nasdaq 100 3.5%, SOX 5.9%, S&P 500 1.6%, BIST 3.3% and the TAEIX rose 3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;


Aluminium (2.7%), China Cokign Coal (1.9%), Cotton (2.2%), Lumber (2.4%), Nickel (2.7%), Nickel MCX (5.6%), Palladium (2.7%), Robusta Coffee (3.7%), Oats (5.8%), Wheat (2.6%), All World ex-USA (2.4%), ATX (3.4%), KBW Bank Index (2.6%), CAC (6.2%), DAX (3%), MIB (5.8%), HSCEI (2.1%), HAng Seng (2.3%), IBEX (3.6%), IDX (2.7%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.1%), KRE Regional Banks (2.3%), MCX (2.1%), Oslo (2.2%), Copenhagen (2.4%), Helsinki (2.2%), Stockholm (2.4%), PSE (2.1%), SET (2%), SMI (1.7%), Chile (1.7%), XJO (1.7%), ASX Materials (4.3%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 2.2%.

June 16, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 24, 2024)

May 26, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Copper

JKM LNG in USD and JPY

Nickel *

Platinum *

Dutch TTF Gas

Wheat *

AUD/SGD

Helsinki *

South Africa 40

And the ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yield * 

Tin

AEX *

Austria’s ATX *

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Oslo *

Stockholm

TAEIX *

and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Nickel on MCX

Orange Juice

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, mostly.

It was another week of relative quiet action.

The Russian 10 year government bond yield isn’t overbought anymore.

And the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate, mean reverted.

Equities were mainly weaker.

The Hang Seng Index and S&P Small Cap 600 aren’t overbought anymore.

Many other equity indices also dropped out of their overbought extremes.

The KBW Bank Index, Vietnam, CSI 300 and Shanghai Index all broke their weekly winning streaks.

The Nasdaq Composite, KLSE, FTSE 250, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and TAEIX have all put together a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen 10% over the past 3 weeks.

Oslo is at an all-time high.

And the HSCEI and Indonesia’s IDX had a weekly outside bearish week. 

Commodities were mostly stronger.

Cotton, Coffee, JKM LNG, Cocoa and Wheat all had a good week.

Nickel as traded on India’s MCX makes a return to registering an overbought extreme.

Oil & Distillates, Copper,  Palladium, Platinum, Silver and Gold all saw weakness.

Tin returns to overbought territory.

Silver and Gold (in all currencies except the CHF) are no longer overbought. 

In fact, Gold performed a bearish outside reversal week.

Lean Hogs are in a 5 week losing streak.

Orange Juice has risen 27% over the past 3 weeks.

Soybeans are in a 5 week winning streak.

Cotton rose and broke its 11 week losing streak.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 45 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies saw some action during the week.

The British Pound was stronger and nearing extreme against the JPY and EUR.

The Yen was mostly weaker., 

The Aussie was weaker against all except the Thai Baht and South African Rand.

The Euro as mixed while the Loonie was weaker.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 2.4%, Cocoa 12.9%, Cotton 6.1%, JKM LNG 7%, Coffee 5.6%, JKM LNG in Yen 13.9%, Tin 2.7%, Nickel in MCX 4%, Orange Juice 6.3%, Robusta Coffee 10.6%, Corn 2.7%, Oats 3%, Wheat 7.1%, Egypt 4.1%, NIFTY 2%, SENSEX 2%, Chile 1.8% and the SOX rose 4.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (2.6%), WTI Crude Oil (2.3%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (5.9%), Heating Oil (2.8%), Nickel (4.1%), Palladium (4%), Platinum (4.7%), Gasoline (3.5%), Sugar (2.4%), Brent Crude Oil (2.1%), Gasoil (3.1%), Silver in AUD (2.7%), Silver in USD (3.6%), Gold in AUD (2.4%), Gold in CAD (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (3.6%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Rice (2.2%), Shanghai (2.1%), CSI 300 (2.1%), KBW Banks (2.3%), China A50 (2.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), DJ Transports (2.7%), MIB (2.6%), HSCEI (4.8%), Hang Seng (4.8%), BOVESPA (3%), IDX (3%), MOEX (3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.4%) and Mexico fel 3.8%.

And for some reference for Australian readers, the ASX 200 and ASX Small Caps fell 1.1%, the ASX Materials fell 1.5% while the ASX Industrials rose 0.9% for the week.

May 26, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 10, 2024)

May 12, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

  • denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Oats *

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) *

Hang Seng Index *

South Africa 40 *

FTSE 250

Helsinki 

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year government bond yield 

Japanese 2 year government bond yield 

Copper

Gold as priced in USD, GBP, EUR, CHF and CAD

AEX *

Budapest *

DAX

MIB

Stockholm

TAEIX

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

FTSE 250

and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Austria’a ATX

Oslo

FTSE 100

Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Hydroxide *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Midwest U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel

Lumber *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed, with a slight bias higher.

Generally, those yields which were overbought in the recent weeks, fell and those yields that weren’t overbought…rose over the past week.

Equities were mostly higher, with Indian indices amongst the few to decline.

Europe was stronger. Perhaps it was a Eurovision rally?

It has been nearly 3 years since the FTSE 250 has registered an overbought extreme. It has risen 6.5% over the past 3 weeks.

Germany’s DAX, Italy’s MIB, & Stockholm’s OSX 30 are back in overbought territory.

The HSCEI and Hang Seng have both risen 16% in the past 3 weeks.

Furthermore, the Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, the U.S. (KRE) Regional Banks Index and Malaysia’s KLCI Index are in a 4 week winning streaks.

China’s A50 Index and the U.S. KBW Bank Index have risen 7.5% and 8% respectively, over the past 4 weeks.

And the Nasdaq Transports broke its 5 week losing streak.

Commodities were mostly stronger.

Precious Metals, Grains, Gases and Softs were stronger.

Oats are in a 5 week winning streak and have climbed 26.5% over that time.

Urea, Steel and Lumber prices were weaker. Lumber has tanked 20% over the past 7 weeks.

Some of the grains are now seeing 4 weeks of consecutive gains.

Copper and Gold are overbought, while Hot Rolled Coil Steel, Lumber and Lithium are in the oversold category.

Robusta Coffee has fallen 18% over the past fortnight which accounts for nearly half of the 39% rise seen in the prior 10 weeks.

Cotton has fallen for 10 consecutive weeks, sinking 21% over that time and nearing oversold territory.

Over the past fortnight, Platinum has risen 9% while Gasoline has slumped 9%.

The Baltic Dry Index has soared 23% in 2 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 43 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies were generally quiet for the week except for the renewed weakness in the Yen.

The AUD fell against all except the Yen.

The Euro was firmer and the EUR/USD is in a 4 week winning streak.

And the U.S. Dollar rose against everyone except anything called a Peso.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 13.5%, Cocoa 9.2%, JKM LNG in Yen 6.9%, Tin 6.3%, Natural Gas 5.1%, Orange Juice 6.5%, Palladium 3.5%, Platinum 4.3%, Silver in AUD 6.1%, Gold in AUD 2.6%, Gold in USD 2.5%, Corn 2.1%, Oats 6.1%, Rice 2.7%, Wheat 6.6%, CSI 300 1.7%, AEX 2.6%, ATX 2.7%, KBW 2.7%, Budapest 1.8%, CAC 3.3%, DAX 4.3%, DJ Industrials 2.2%, MIB 3.1%, HSCEI 2.6%, Hang Seng 2.6%, IBEX 2.3%, S&P SmallCap 600 1.7%, Nasdaq Composite 1.1%, KOSPI 1.9%, FTSE 250 2.4%, S&P MidCap 400 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 1.5%, Oslo 3.5%, Copenhagen 2.3%, Helsinki 3.3%, Stockholm 3.5%, SA40 2.7%, SMI 4.3%, SOX 2%, S&P 500 1.9%, TAEIX 1.9%, Nasdaq Transports 2%, TSX 1.7%, FTSE 100 2.7%, Vietnam 1.9%, ASX 200 1.6%, ASX Industrials 1.7%, ASX Small Caps 1.5% and the Tel Aviv 35 rose 3.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) Steel (4.1%), Lumber (2.1%), Newcastle Coal (2%), Gasoline (2.2%), Robusta Coffee (2.9%), Urea Middle East (2.3%), NIFTY (1.9%) and India’s SENSEX fell 1.7%.

May 12, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 3, 2024)

May 5, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

  • denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 year government bond yield

South Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Copper/Gold Ratio

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate *

Newcastle Coal

Oats

AUD/IDR *

AUD/THB *

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) *

Hang Seng Index *

J’burg 40 

Singapore Straits Times Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year government bond yield 

AEX

Budapest

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

FTSE 250

and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yields 

Copper

Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

SHY

PHP/USD *

Dow Jones Transports *

And Indonesia’s IDX30 *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Hydroxide

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Lumber

Urea

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

Many streaks were broken such as the 5 week winning streak in Canadian and South Korean 10’s along with all the yields across the British curve.

Chinese 10 year bond yields is no longer oversold as its yield rose.

Equities were mostly higher.

However, selected European bourses did see weakness.

China’s A50 Index and the U.S. KBW Bank Index have risen 7.5% and 5.2% respectively, over the past 3 weeks.

IBEX, MIB, & Stockholm’s OSX 30 aren’t overbought anymore.

The HSCEI and Hang Seng both rose 4.5% for the week, adding to last week’s 9% advance.

Furthermore, the Hang Seng and U.S. (KRE) Regional Banks Index are in a 3 week winning streak.

The SOX finished flat following last week’s stunning 10% rise.

Karachi broke its 6 week winning streak.

The Nasdaq Transports has declined for 5 consecutive weeks.

And Toronto’s TSX registered a bearish outside reversal week.

Commodities were mostly lower, again.

Weakness was seen in Cocoa, Coffee, Precious Metals, Oils and Distillates.

Strength was evident in Base Metals, Coal, Gases and Grains.

Some of the grains have strung 3 weeks of consecutive gains.

Aluminium, Tin & Nickel are not overbought anymore, nor is Cocoa, Coffee or Gold (in any currency).

Cocoa has fallen 31% in the past fortnight and has broken its overbought streak of 27 weeks.

While Australian Coking Coal isn’t oversold this week.

Robusta Coffee has fell 15% accounting for nearly half of the 39% rise seen in the prior 9 weeks.

Cotton has fallen for 8 consecutive weeks while Rubber has sunk for 6 weeks straight.

Iron Ore in a 5 week winning streak.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel performed a bearish weekly outside reversal.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 42 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies are providing stealth guidance for the health of various asset trends.

The big news was the strength in the Japanese Yen and it’s no longer at last weeks extremes.

The AUD rose against all except the Yen.

The Canadian Loonie fell while the Euro was mixed.

The British Pound fell with the exception of the USD pair.

The Thai Baht broke its 7 week losing streak against the USD.

And the USD/SEK registered a outside weekly bearish week.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 3.2%, Baltic Dry Index 9%, China Coking Coal 4.7%, Tin 2%, Newcastle Coal 5.8%, Natural Gas 11.4%, Platinum 4.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.5%, Uranium 5.5%, Corn 2.3%, Oats 7.9%, Soybeans 3.2%, China A50 2%, HSCEI 4.4%, Hang Seng 4.7%, Russell 2000 1.8%, KRE Regional Bank Index 3%, FTSE 250 1.7%, Nasdaq Biotechs 5.9%, Chile 2.6% and the BIST 100 rose 3.6%.

For reference, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% for the week.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (1.9%), Cocoa (23.1%), WTI Crude (6.9%), Cotton (3.5%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (4.7%), Coffee (Arabica) (10.4%), Lumber (2.7%), Lithium (5.7%), Gasoline (6.9%), Coffee (Robusta) (14.7%), SPGSCI (3.8%), CRB Index (3.5%), Brent Crude Oil (6%), Gasoil (5.3%), Urea Middle East (2.1%), Silver in AUD (3.6%), Silver in USD (2.4%), Gold in AUD (2.7%), Gold in CHF (2.6%), Gold in EUR (2.2%), Gold in GBP (2%), Gold in ZAR (3%), CAC (1.6%), MIB (1.8%) and Spain’s IBEX fell 2.7%.

May 5, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Intel CEO on the ropes

April 29, 2024 Leave a comment

I think Intel CEO, Pat Gelsinger is on the ropes.

I’ve watched his various media interviews and listened to Intel quarterly earnings calls. Tone and posture has changed over the past 2 years and not for the better.

Coupled with Intel’s woeful stock performance since his appointment as CEO in February 2021, using the word’s “A.I.” and “Data Centres” can only do so much for the stock price.

Intel had 5 rounds of job cuts in 2023.

It just won $8.5 billion in U.S. Federal subsidies from the $52 billion CHIPS Act Congress passed last year and was promised to receive $11 billion in loans.

Regarding the funds available within the CHIPS Act, CEO Pat Gelsinger said he is counting on additional federal funding this year for defense-related semiconductor projects. And he said he hopes for a second CHIPS Act to reverse the long erosion of domestic technology manufacturing.

“We’ll need at least a CHIPS 2 to finish that job,” Gelsinger said.

https://www.govtech.com/workforce/intel-wins-8-5b-in-federal-chip-factory-subsidies

Its an early call, but a change in CEO will be good for the stock price.

by Rob Zdravevski

April 29, 2024

rob@karriasset.com.au

Screenshot

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , , , , ,

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