U.K. inflation to see 5%, not 2%

It doesn’t matter if the March 2024 #UnitedKingdom inflation rate falls from 3.4% down to 3% or 2.6%……

This is small beans.

It is nearer the lower end of its travels.

The big call to make is when the #inflation rate is trading at ‘extremes’ to my illustrated moving average, appearing in the chart below.

Much like my American inflation note published yesterday, I think there is greater probability that #UK inflation rate should travel towards 5% rather than 1.8%……

and all that comes with it for interest rates and the equity prices of high growth (unprofitable) companies.

Incidentally, the U.K. inflation rate for March 2024 is due to be released on April 17th.

April 11, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Karri Asset Advisors

Screenshot

Why are they begging for a rate cut?

I would like a reduction in interest rate please……

even though the world’s stockmarkets have risen between 25% and 50% over the past 3 years……

Following such wonderful investment returns, why are equity investors are so hinged on whether central banks will lower their interest rate policy or target?

This wish from ‘collective’ equity investors is most perverse.

What is the genesis and motivation behind this story-telling derived by the strategists and pundits from the investment houses?

Something must not be working well enough for ‘them’ when money is priced at 5.25%.

Are companies and individuals still too leveraged?

Perhaps corporate profits are still under pressure even following the rounds of jobs cuts and cost-cutting measures?

Or maybe, banks can’t make enough of a spread between the interest they need to pay on deposits and the amount they can loan out?

I’d argue that a fair cost of money is around 5%-6%.

And rate cuts are often used to flog a dead horse back into life……

Be careful what one wishes for.

April 11, 2024

British inflation should mean revert

What if British inflation reverted to a mean which is equally converging.

Maybe somewhere near that flag, perhaps 6% by Jan-April 2024?

June 21, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Funny How……We now listen to the IMF’s forecasts

Increasingly over the past year or so, more and more media attention has been paid to the financial forecasting opinions of the likes of the IMF, the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the ECB.

Why do the opinions of these bodies economic teams suddenly hold merit?

After all, none of them told us about financial crisis that was looming in 2007.

So why believe them now?