Google’s earnings are a bellwether

If you had to watch only one stock this earnings season, I think it should be Alphabet.

I remember when Cisco Systems was the quarterly earnings bellwether?

They (Google) report earnings on February 1st, 2022.

To coincide with today’s post about picking a bottom in the Nasdaq, in order to keep its current bullish trend intact, GOOGL needs to hold the support line on the chart below, which is around the $2,450 mark.

In other news, Microsoft reported earnings after today’s close and we’ll see how their price action plays out, while Apple reports earnings on January 27th.

All three of these stocks are on or above similar support lines. (MSFT’s is right on the edge).

Meanwhile, the other three of the “FAANGM’s gang, being Netflix, Amazon and Facebook have already broken below their corresponding (or sympathetic) support lines.

Incidentally, Tesla reports quarterly earning on January 26th (U.S. time) and their stock will be interesting to watch too. Not because I consider them anywhere near a bellwether, but rather they are a proxy for cult and sentiment.

To put it simply, if Alphabet (Google) breaks below that support line on a weekly closing basis, then they may be the last straw that broke the camel’s back……….

thus my the probability of my Nasdaq low story is de-bunked and I’ll revise the next wave and targets at lower levels.

January 26, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Apple’s market cap is larger than South Korea’s GDP

If Apple’s market cap (currently $2 trillion) doubles from here, it’ll be larger than the German economy. *
(and Amazon and Microsoft aren’t too far behind)

Today, Apple’s value is already larger than economies of Italy, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Spain or South Korea.

It’s already nearly double that of Australia’s GDP.

Many speak about “big tech” being overvalued and perhaps so, but a more pertinent reason to consider before buying shares in such behemoths at today’s prices is the LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS.

And a couple years ago, I thought Exxon Mobil was a Goliath at $350 billion market cap…..

Investors may find more interesting investment ideas in the Mid Cap market. FYI, the average market cap of a stock in the S&P 400 Mid Cap Index is about US$4.7 billion.

* Germany’s annual GDP is $3.7 trillion.

p.s. we know that GDP isn’t an equal measure to market capitalisation, but it made me raise an eyebrow.

#aapl#amzn#nasdaq#midcaps

September 29, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

The great U.S. corporate bond issuance

Singularly, you may not have noticed various U.S. companies either re-finance existing debt or importantly issue new debt, over the past year or so.
Collectively, it is a monumental amount of debt.

Cleverly, these companies have taken advantage of the almost perpetual low yields of the government benchmarks, upon which they can base their spreads against.

Companies such as Oracle, Amazon & Goldman Sachs have issued bonds either secured or unsecured against their equity at historically low yields; which is brilliant financial strategy for these companies.

With interest rates at such low levels, probability and cycles suggest that rates will rise in the coming 6 years or so.

When 10 year benchmark rates are 6% and not 2%, I can’t see a 10 year 2.5% coupon Oracle Corp. bond being redeemed early, meaning bond holders will probably suffer capital losses unless held until maturity. Just imagine holding a bond that yields 2.5% into the latter half of this decade while others are earning twice or three times that amount?

Although, we are seeing a great bond issuance cycle, capital markets will most likely miss out on the next re-financing cycle.

What happens then?

Perhaps, companies will payout maturing debt by selling their own shares, which incidentally, they accumulated in share buy-backs conducted in 2012/2013 using the cheap money that they obtained from the same investors who bought their bonds?

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