Trying to hear what's not being said
February 18, 2025 Leave a comment
It’s often noisiest at the extremes.
For Chinese and Hong Kong markets, the extreme pendulum suggests selling or reducing rather than buying.
February 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 16, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Bloomberg Commodity Index
Lean Hogs
Copper
JKM LNG in ¥
Dutch TTF Gas *
Silver in AUD
AEX
CAC
SA40
SMI
And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Chilean and Japanese 2 year government bond yields *
Japanese 5 and 10 year government bond yields *
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Chile’s IPSA and IGPA Index *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index *
Israel’s TA35 *
Poland’s WIG Index *
And the ASX Industrials Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Arabica Coffee *
Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, EUR, CHF, GBP, USD and ZAR
Austria’s ATX *
Germany’s DAX Index *
Italy’s MIB
HSCEI Index
And Spain’s IBEX Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
CHF/JPY *
EUR/JPY *
GBP/JPY *
CAD/JPY *
NZD/AUD
And Indonesia’s IDX Composite
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields *
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
Richards Bay Coal
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
Uranium
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Orange Juice *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose.
The yields which bucked this weekly trend were Belgian, Brazilian, Indonesian, Russian and American.
U.S. 7’s & 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.
Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 6 week rising streak.
As are the Japanese 10’s.
Aussie 10’s, Norwegian 10’s and the yields across the British curve rose and broke their 4 week losing streaks.
The spread of the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. inflation rate has fallen for 5 straight weeks.
The U.S. 5 year break-even inflation rate is nearing an overbought reading. The last time we saw that was March 2022.
Equities saw the most action again, rising, again.
The All Developed World ex USA Index and the Helsinki 25 are in 5 week winning streaks.
The CAC, DAX and IGPA have risen for 6 straight weeks.
Austria’s, Hungary’s, Polands and Spain’s main equity index have risen for 8 weeks straight.
Switzerland’s SMI has climbed for 7 of the past 8 weeks.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite registered an oversold reading this week.
The Hang Seng is a whisker away from a quinella overbought listing.
India’s NIFTY and SENSEX are working their way towards a reversion to the mean.
And the DAX is at an all-time high.
Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.
Sugar, Tin, Coffee, Natural Gas and Wheat had a good week.
Coal, Orange Juice, Uranium fell and are in oversold territory.
The Bloomberg Commodity Index returns to overbought land.
Arabica Coffee has risen for 6 straight weeks.
Orange Juice tanks further, extends its losing streak to 8 week, registers an extreme oversold reading and heads towards mean revision.
Lean Hogs have risen for 4 consecutive weeks as has USD Silver.
Wheat is in a 6 week winning streak.
Gold in CAD hasn’t registered a weekly decline for the past 11 of them.
Gold in USD is in a 7 week winning streak.
Although Gold in EUR and CHF broke their respective 6 and 7 week consecutive weeks of advance.
Brent Crude has fallen for 4 straight weeks.
Corn has risen for 9 of the past 11 weeks and is approaching overbought levels.
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 89 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were quieter this past week.
The AUD mostly rose, again.
The Yen took a break from being stronger.
The Brazilian Real has risen for 7 straight weeks versus the USD.
The Loonie was mostly lower.
The Euro was firmer.
The Chilean Peso has risen for 6 straight weeks against the USD>
And the USD was weaker against everyone except the Yen.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.6%, Cocoa 2.1%, Cotton 2.4%, Copper 1.7%, HRC 1.7%, JKM LNG 1.5%, Arabica Coffee 2.7%, Lumber 3%, Natural Gas 14.6%, Palladium 2.7%, Robusta Coffee 3.1%, Sugar 5.5%, Sugar #16 1.9%, Tin 5.3%, CRB Index 1.5%, Gasoil 1.9%, Corn 1.8%, Rice 2.1%, Wheat 2.8%, AD02 2.4%, AEX 2.4%, ATX 5.3%, CAC 2.6%, China A50 2.9%, DAX 3.3%, DJ Transports 2.8%, MIB 2.5%, HSCEI 7%, Hang Seng 7%, IBEX 2.1%, BOVESPA 2.9%, Nasdaq Composite 2.6%, KSE 1.6%, KOSPI 2.7%, Mexico 2.4%, Nasdaq 100 2.9%, Helsinki 2.6%, Stockholm 2.9%, PX 3%, SA40 1.7%, SMI 2%, SOX 3%, S&P 500 1.5%, WIG 3% and the ASX Industrials rose 2.9%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richard Bay Coal (3%), Rotterdam Coal (3.5%), Baltic Dry Index (2.8%), Newcastle Coal (5.1%), Nickel (1.9%), Orange Juice (19.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (9%), Uranium (4.3%), Oats (3.6%), NIFTY (2.7%), PSE (1.5%), IDX (1.5%) and India’s SENSEX fell 2.5%.
February 16, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 15, 2025 Leave a comment
While Novo Nordisk’s share price has halved over the past 9 months, I don’t think the decline has exhausted itself.
Next stop is DKK 446, which is a further 20% below todays closing price.
February 15, 2025
rob@karriasset.com
February 9, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Silver in AUD
USD/MXN
Poland’s WIG Index *
And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Brazil 10 year government bond yields
Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *
Dutch TTF Gas
Gold in AUD
Hungary’s BUX Index *
DAX Index
Israel’s TA35 *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index *
Chile’s IGPA Index *
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Chile’s IGPA Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Arabica Coffee *
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
Gold as priced in CAD, CHF, EUR & GBP
USD/INR *
Austria’s ATX *
Chile’s IPSA Index *
Spain’s IBEX Index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
India’s 10 year government bond yields
Orange Juice
Rice
CHF/JPY
EUR/JPY
GBP/JPY
CAD/JPY
Thailand’s SET Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields *
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
INR/USD
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell, again.
While this week’s list boasts the same overbought entries as last weeks edition, we are seeing more streaks develop.
Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 5 week rising streak.
As are the Japanese 2’s, 5’s and 10’s.
Belgian 10 year bond yields have climbed for 4 weeks.
Aussie 10’s, Norwegian 10’s and the yields across the British curve are in 4 week losing streaks.
The spread of the U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 10 year break-even rate has fallen for 4 straight weeks.
The U.S. 5 year break-even inflation rate is nearing an overbought reading. The last time we saw that was March 2022.
And I wanted to make a note that only a few weeks ago, the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread was overbought.
Equities mainly rose, while we saw weakness amongst small caps.
The CAC, the DAX and the Helsinki 25 are in 4 week winning streaks.
Poland’s WIG Index has climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.
Austria’s and Hungary’s main equity index have risen for 7 weeks straight.
Pakistan’s KSE, Switzerland’s SMI and the ASX Industrials Index fell from overbought territory.
The SMI broke its 6 week winning streak.
The SMI climbed 10% over that time.
Chile’s IPSA is in a 5 week rising streak and has risen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.
Philippines PSE broke its 4 week losing streak by rising 5%.
Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite is nearing oversold levels.
And the DAX is at an all-time high.
Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.
Arabica Coffee has risen for 5 straight weeks.
Orange Juice tanks further and extends its losing streak to 7 week.
Palladium gave up all of last week’s 6% gain and then some.
The Baltic Dry Index jumped from being oversold. It rose 11%. Prior to this week, it had fallen 59% over the past 2 months.
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel rose enough to end its 36 week stay in oversold territory.
Copper, Coffee, Tin, Gases, Gold and Wheat gained.
Uranium, Oil, Coal, Orange Juice, Lithium and Cocoa fell.
Copper had a good week leading to a sharp rise in the Copper/Gold Ratio, arguably confirming a ‘risk-on’ environment.
Wheat is in a 5 week winning streak.
Corn has risen for 8 of the past 10 weeks.
Last week Cattle prices were overbought. They are no longer so.
Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 10 consecutive weeks.
Gold in USD has risen for 6 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 7 week winning streak.
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 88 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were active.
There is merit comparing the currency entries in last week’s edition and referencing those omitted in the edition.
The AUD mostly rose, reversing recent declines.
The AUD/JPY fell and is nearing oversold levels.
The Yen has been stronger against the USD for 4 weeks. This Yen strength is perhaps signalling an end to ‘risk-off’ sentiment?
The Brazilian Real has risen for 6 straight weeks versus the USD.
The Loonie rose from its recent doldrums and the CAD/USD isn’t oversold this week.
And the Euro was weaker, everywhere, again.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.9%, Baltic Dry Index 10.9%, Lean Hogs 3.7%, Copper 7.2%, Heating Oil 1.4%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel 2%, JKM LNG 2%, Arabica Coffee 6.9%, Tin 4.6%, Natural Gas 8.7%, Nickel 3.4%, Gasoline 2.2%, Tin 3.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.7%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.9%, Gold in CHF 2.1%, Gold in EUR 2.5%, Gold in GBP 2.1%, Gold in USD 2.2%, Wheat 4.2%, Shanghai Composite 1.6%, CSI 300 2%, MIB 1.6%, HSCEI 5.4%, Hang Seng 4.5%, IBEX 2.6%, ASX Materials 1.7%, WIG 2%, TA35 2.4%, SA40 2.4%, PX 2.4%, PSE 5%, Mexico 3.1% and the KLSE rose 2.2%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richard Bay Coal (4.2%), Rotterdam Coal (4.8%), Cocoa (8%), Cattle (2.7%), Lithium Carbonate (4.2%), Lithium Hydroxide (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (9.2%), Orange Juice (10.9%), Robusta Coffee (2,8%), Sugar #16 (3.4%), Brent Crude (2.4%), WTI Crude (2.1%), Uranium (2.5%), Indonesia (5.1%), S&P Small Cap Value (1.8%), SET (2.5%), Oslo (2%), KSE (3.4%) and the Nikkei 225 fell 2%.
February 9, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 9, 2025 Leave a comment
I was reading through a Top 200 “Rich” List of wealthy people and not one of them listed as having made their fortune from “Private Credit”.
Nor did investing in CDO’s or CLO’s (20 years ago) receive a citation for their source of wealth.
Maybe it’s better to an owner rather than a loaner?
hashtag#caveatemptor
hashtag#wherearethecustomersyachts
February 8, 2025 Leave a comment
Is Arabica #Coffee a better store of value than #Bitcoin?
I might put it on the blockchain?
(of course I picked a starting date which suited me)
February 8, 2025 Leave a comment
Since January 1, 2024, the price of Cocoa has risen 800% versus Bitcoin’s 100%.
Surely, Cocoa and perhaps chocolate are a better store of value than Bitcoin?
Incidentally, following all of this, 1 Bitcoin is still worth 1 Bitcoin……because it seems comical that Bitcoin speculators still tend to reference Bitcoin’s value against or compared to “our” shitty, archaic Fiat currency.
I have a bag of Cocoa that I would happily sell for 1 Bitcoin…..but I will only accept USD cash……
February 7, 2025 Leave a comment
While much damage has been done to the Nickel price, I think there is a little a more lower travel ahead before dearth of supply meets an apathy of interest.
At the time of writing the price of LME (forward month) Nickel futures are trading at US$15,623.
February 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 6, 2025 Leave a comment
I am expecting a flurry of mergers and acquisitions in the software industry.
For example, I think companies as such Atlassian will start using their much improved stock price (as currency) to acquire businesses.
February 6, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 6, 2025 Leave a comment
The USD Gold price is registering a “quadruple” of my extreme measures.
It’s trading at US$2,870 at the time of writing.
February 6, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 