At Least 70% Didn’t Chuck A Sickie

TOYOTA, A TELLING TALE…

from The Pickering Post

http://pickeringpost.com/story/toyota-a-telling-tale-/2759

“Two years ago we were working so hard to create conditions whereby we could stay in this wonderful country and produce cars.

“We had restructured the business and, despite acceding to recent union demands for even better wages and conditions, we were seeing a dim light flickering at the end of the tunnel.

“We were honest with our employees and had explained the seriousness of the company’s economic plight.

“They had assured us of their cooperation, so we determined to all pull together in a desperate attempt keep the company viable.

“There was an air of camaraderie, a feeling of hope.

“It was Australia Day that week and it fell on a Thursday. On the Friday, thirty percent of our workforce didn’t turn up, thirty percent called in sick.

“That’s when I finally realised we were stuffed.”

Spend 30% of your revenue on Advertising

Zillow and Trulia are competing to become the major force in the U.S. online real estate industry.

I think they are still in the early stages of large marketshare opportunity as Americans quickly catch up to (and are surpassing) how Australians have used the internet when searching for houses to buy or rent.

These internet based companies have recently announced plans to spend $65 million and $45 million on national advertising in 2014.

These advertising budgets equate to 32% of Zillow’s and 27% of Trulia’s 2013 revenue.

These are online businesses that dominate their industry space and yet they feel the need to increase their advertising budget in order to grow. I would also bet that advertising using “traditional” media will receive its fair share of revenue, in the manner which online dating agency and online gaming/betting advertise using television and print to get their message across.

Surely these figures are only for their advertising budgets and wouldn’t include the salaries of their in-house marketing staff.

Now 20% or 30% of your revenue being spent on advertising seems exceptionally high so I have listed some companies that continue to spend even though they already have large, visual and dominate brands.

Samsung spends $4.3 billion per year on advertising. This is equal to 3% of their current annual gross revenue.

Coca Cola spends $3 billion (6% of 2013 revenue)

Microsoft & Google part with $2.5 billion each (both accounting for 4% of revenue in each company)

McDonalds outlays $1 billion (also 4%)

and Apple’s advertising budget just hit $1 billion which represents 0.6% of their annual sales.

An article written by George Boykin from Demand Media expanded on this topic by writing;

“The U.S. Small Business Administration recommends spending 7 to 8 percent of your gross revenue for marketing and advertising if you’re doing less than $5 million a year in sales (and your net margin is 10-12% after expenses), while some marketing experts advise that start-up and small businesses usually allocate between 2 and 3 percent of revenue for marketing and advertising, and up to 20 percent if you’re in a competitive industry.

In 2010 the Chief Marketing Officers, or CMO, Council conducted a survey of its 6,000 chief marketing officer members to assess marketing and advertising spending across a wide range of industries. The survey results revealed that 58 percent of chief marketing officers spent less than 4 percent of gross revenue on marketing, 16 percent spent between 5 and 6 percent, 23 percent spent more than 6 percent, while 2 percent spent more than 20 percent. This survey seems to suggest that if you set your spending level between 0 percent and 6 percent of gross revenue, you will be in good company that includes 74 percent of the CMO Council membership.”

Source: http://smallbusiness.chron.com/percentage-gross-revenue-should-used-marketing-advertising-55928.html

Obviously, many businesses aren’t in the league of Coca Cola in terms of brand recognition nor marketshare or pricing power but it seems for ambitious companies seeking growth such as Zillow & Trulia, spending the suggested “mean” of 3% of their revenue on advertising and marketing will probably result in a mediocre payoff.

 I am wondering three things:

1) If the adage of “spend more and you’ll get more” holds true, then why do people attend seminars on “How To Advertise Successfully For No Money” ?

2) I don’t think many companies (large or small) even spend 3% of their revenue total on advertising yet they are quick to complain about the lack of sales.

3) How much thought does a company actually give to figuring out how to deliver their message in a competitive and crowded world, where others are also seeking attention.

Is placing an ad in your local newspaper, paying for Google Adwords, begging or buying for “Likes” on Facebook effective advertising?

Is this going to provide you with a Return On Investment?

If you answer “no” or “not sure”, then you are wasting your money and time.

Can You Smell The Deception & Misdirection

This is a periodical post about things that I see in the financial press, which I tend to interpret differently. When managing investors money, you need analyse the news and not just simply read it because you can’t assume you are getting to the truth.

Firstly, Jakarta warns Australia they are prepared to “clash” over border violations incurred by the Australian Navy. Australia best heed their warnings and wipe that smirk off your face because 300 million Indonesians should send your xenophobic fears into overdrive. I hope our government isn’t pinning all of our defensive hopes on U.S. Marines stationed in Darwin?

But equally Telstra is looking to form a 50/50 venture with Telekom Indonesia. Can David Thodey please be our next foreign minister?

I can’t believe why any company in the world wants to pay that much for a small insignificant business such as Warrnambool Cheese & Butter. Good luck to them.

Panic, Panic – protestors block Bangkok streets and the Thai Prime Minister is suspected of corruption. The Thai stock market has risen 9% in 10 days since this story picked up steam.

Alex Waislitz’s Thorney Group raises $68 million. Now I’m not sure what their raising target was but from a distance, their reputation could have easily raised 4 times that amount. My point is, would-be stockbroking firm geniuses should keep in mind that it’s difficult to raise money from the public.

With 65% domestic market share, Qantas still thinks it plays on an uneven playing field.

Franchisee of Australia’s 370 Burger King stores, Competitive Foods Australia, posts revenue of $1.03 billion for fiscal year 2013 and makes $21.4 million profit. That’s a lot of invoices and money to handle in order to make a 2% net profit margin. Last year, revenue was $935 million and profit was $8 million. Hey Jack, I see that cost cutting program is working?

Australian rail operators (in the Pilbra, Western Australia) are complaining that truckers have got an unfair price advantage when they transport iron ore. If trucking iron ore is cheaper than by rail, then the iron ore giants should then give their competitors access to their railroads. Umm, I didn’t think they would.

Various interviewees in newspapers are wishing for a weaker Australian Dollar. Be careful what you wish for. When you see commodity prices rise, it is usually accompanied by a higher Australian Dollar. In Australia we mainly export commodities, ’cause we don’t manufacture things such as cars, televisions or clothes anymore. So if the AUD remains weaker, we can sell US Dollar denominated commodities and receive a lot of AUD once its converted but it’s also good for overseas money to buy up Australian assets (see Australia is “on sale”).

Australia’s stock market falls due to weak Chinese data. Yup, heard this one before. Just like other brokers who actually ask me if I’m staying up late to watch the U.S. unemployment numbers. It doesn’t really affect the earnings of the shares in the companies that I and my clients own but if you need to justify a movement in the stock market with some sort of news, good luck and be my guest. Please continue to manage your investments on the basis of “jumping at shadows”.

Finally, this week, not a single economist who provided an estimate on the Australia Consumer Price Index reading got it correct and Deutsche Bank posted a “surprise” $1.15 billion quarterly loss.

Whether these professionals continually get their ‘calls” incorrect, can’t make money themselves or continue to pay fines for manipulation & price rigging, yet people still give these investment firms their money to manage.

Learn To Like The Services Industries

We have become a nation of services industries.

More than 75 per cent of employment in Australia comes from the services sector, according to data from the OECD. In comparison, services account for 81.1 per cent of employment in the US, 79.7 per cent in the UK and 34.6 per cent in China.

I find that when I discuss the economy of a particular country, often the conversation involves how “we don’t manufacture anything, anymore”. But some of those service companies do produce a product, although its not made of wood, cement steel or plastic.

Why do we place such a premium on manufacturing jobs and industries?

Is this “premium” due to historical reasons, ’cause my dad worked at Ford Motor Company and thus it’s noble and good?

Is it because they are “things we can touch”?

Does it make it more believable and trustworthy that it actually exists, if you can “touch” it?

Does having plant and machinery make managers and investors feel better because its a tangible asset on their balance sheet?

Financially speaking, service businesses surely have higher margins, less fixed costs, require a smaller amount to get started and seem to be more flexible, while the manufacturing industry seems to have the opposite attributes.

Unless you wish to live in a socialist economy (whilst lining up for your weekly ration of bread & milk), free market capitalism and its forces determine the most efficient place (source, cost & delivery) where manufacturing takes place.

Has it been that terrible to have lived in those clean, free, safe, progressive, enriching and prosperous high service employment countries that I mentioned earlier?

Investing doesn’t need reinventing – just remember some rules

Successful investing is a product of joining many variables together. Many of which we can actually control such as the decisions we make, the risk we take and the investment rules and disciplines we follow.

Here are some of my favourite investing quotes that I keep handy and refer to. They are easy to understand but many investors find them a lot harder to stick to or follow.

1. Over the long run, prices revert to their mean and their fundamentals.

2. Don’t follow the herd. The herd applies optimism at the top and pessimism at the bottom.

3. The safest and most profitable investment is to buy when no-one likes it. Patient opportunism (waiting for bargains) is often the best strategy.

4. Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy. Don’t be captivated by the siren song of the market.

5. Buy assets that appear to offer an attractive return for the risk incurred and sell the asset when the return no longer justifies the risk.

6. Successful investors tend to be unemotional, allowing the greed and fear of others to play into their hands.

7. Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.

8. I have never heard of a forced buyer.

9. When searching and analysing investment ideas, individual curiosity and intellectual honesty is required.

10. The trick of being a successful investor is to sell when you want to, not when you have to.

11. Do not be fearful or negative too often because bear markets aren’t forever.

And finally

12. Do your homework or hire experts to help you.

There is little substitute for doing your own homework.

Regular readers of this blog would notice that I like to highlight the idiocy of financial journalism and they continue to make it easier for more of us to not take them seriously.

A dominating observation in 2013 has been how journalists used Twitter and Facebook posts as sources for their information and quotes.

Mainstream journalists have become even lazier when researching a news story that they even don’t bother to call people in order to seek a quote, instead finding a satisfactory version using social media.

Don’t get me wrong, I like the information that I see on social media as I think it’s a terrific aggregator of opinions too. In fairness, I can’t pick on journalists solely because social media’s contributors mainly come from the broader population.

But I wonder…..

Where are these people getting their facts?
Is what they write, actually correct?
If it’s an opinion, what is the basis behind their views?
What are their motivations or biases?

Here lies the opportunity.

Fewer investors are actually doing any or requisite amounts of “work” when researching and analysing investment opportunities.

A couple ways that I try to succeed when investing my money is to search where others aren’t looking and out work the others.

Although we have been taught by elders and peers that you shouldn’t simply believe everything that you read, yet it seems that we continue to believe the typed word without exercising much individual curiousity or intellectual honesty.

Let Me Buy A Car Online

I want to buy a particular car but the nearest dealership is in Perth, Western Australia. That’s 300 km’s away from where I live.

I know the car, model, colour, interior options, wheels and engine configuration that I want.

I did a lot of things online. I searched for it online, compared it to other cars and I even “built” my preferred vehicle on the manufacturers website.
BUT, I couldn’t buy it online.

Nope, I need to go into a dealership and buy it from them, which in turn means that I pay for their selling margin, sales persons commission, their overheads, dealer delivery costs and my time and fuel to get there and back.

The dealer adds little value, other than allowing me to test drive it. I don’t need you to “listen” to me. I have already researched it, answered my own questions and made a decision, all online.

I could probably organise finance online and have it delivered to me too? (With free floor mats thrown in)

Just like the financial services industry, unless you add value, give advice and perhaps make me some money (unlikely from a car dealers perspective), price is questioned in the absence of value.

You see, I no longer need to go to a record shop and ask the person behind the counter, what is the new hot album. Spotify and others already tell me this.

Tesla currently let’s me one of their cars online. All I have to do is click, “Buy Now”. I only wish they would deliver to Australia.

What other industries could be affected, that may allow me to Buy Now, without dealing with a sales rep?
Real Estate selling and rental agents?

The sludge is deep out there

Every now and then, I enjoy having a “double-take” at financial news articles and seeing what’s behind the story, while I “try to hear what’s not being said”, or perhaps, not being written.

Many financial news articles are designed to mislead and frighten and some of them are just worryingly funny.

Some of the stuff I have seen in only the past couple days include:

“Australian Dollar falls for the sixth straight week, its longest since 1985”. Holy cow!, makes it sounds like the Aussie has fallen below 55 cents. Another journalist writes, “and it looks set to extend its decline into the seventh week”. How does she know this?

“CEO celebrates their stock price rising 40% on day of IPO”. So either your bankers did a bad job valuing your business, you did a bad job representing your pre-IPO shareholders or you have incentives tied to the performance of the stock’s public price.

Qantas CEO cries foul over uneven playing field compared to Virgin’s ability to raise capital. Seriously! I wonder what Ansett or anyone else who has tried to compete against QF think.

As CEO of Woolworths nears his retirement, the ownership of their “poker-machine business does weigh on his conscience.” OK, Grant. You’ll get by, I’m sure.

If clients only knew of the lack of investing experience and competence possessed by “Chief Investment Officer’s” that are hired at certain brokerage and investment houses

Fund Managers tell the public that they should be investing overseas (outside of Australia) because it’s apparently not practical and too difficult to be a direct share investor in international equities. No, it’s not. I’ve been doing it directly for myself and clients for over 20 years. Amazingly, these comments from a fund manager happens to coincide whenever they launch their first international (product) fund.

For those who only wish to hear what they want to hear, this post is not a gripe nor soured with grapes. It’s meant to alert people to the bullshit they are fed in the financial press.

How To Go From Sinophile to Sinophobia – Ask Australia

A country’s Foreign Affairs  isn’t only about setting policy but you need to understand economics in order to achieve your diplomatic objective.

Having a few politicians who are certified Sinophiles isn’t an automatic pass either.

Unfortunately, politicians and their advisors often aren’t financially literate let alone considered to be business people and because of this, they fail to understand how to deal with other countries over the length of many economic cycles.

In Australia’s case, it was the only large developed economy to survive the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The fact that it has hasn’t posted a year with negative economic growth for 22 years in another anomaly.

Over the past 10 years, Australia’s economy benefitted from China’s appetite for its commodity resources (see China’s stimulus) and we loved them for it but after a while Aussies weren’t happy with what panned out, as the social and financial divide was then blamed on a “Two-Speed” economy.

When a large trading partner saves your economy, you say “Thank You”.

You don’t;

  1. antagonise them by placing U.S. Marines in Darwin and lie about the real reason they are there.
  2. call them dirty polluters (even though you have been one for a 100 years before them)
  3. revile the fact that their students come to Australia to study and “take away places from Aussie students”.
  4. ban their large telecomm networking company from participating in the construction of your own National Broadband Network
  5. obstruct and oppose their companies from buying assets (farms) from a willing seller in a free market enterprise system &
  6. charge their citizens more tax if they choose to buy property in Australia.

Oh Australia, you just don’t get it.

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio