Trying to hear what's not being said
April 3, 2024 Leave a comment
How about buying #Tesla stock at $114.50 or $82?
That would be nice.
I’ll wait and watch but that might be a stretch.
Perhaps $146.60 is the interim entry point?
#TSLA is currently $166.63
April 3, 2024
April 2, 2024 Leave a comment
We are starting to reduce allocation to Spanish equities.
Our various measures tell us that #Spain‘s #IBEX index at 11,075 points is “full” and approaching the latter part of its advance and so probability suggests that the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.
Hemos visto la parte suficiente del comercio.
April 2, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
#Espana
March 31, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations
CRB Index
AUD/THB
MXN/USD
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Biodiesel
Robusta Coffee
AEX
KBW Bank Index
Budapest
CAC 30
DAX
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Italy’s MIB
Nasdaq Composite
S&P MidCap 400
Nikkei 225
Philadelphia SOX
TAIEX
Nasdaq Transports
Toronto’s TSX
FTSE 100
Vietnam
And the S&P 500 Index
The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Russian 10 year bond yield
Gold in USD, AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP & CHF
Cocoa
IBEX
Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
CHF/AUD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields
Lithium Hydroxide
Rice
The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Australian Coking Coal
Chinese Coking Coal
Iron Ore
Shanghai Rebar
Notes & Ideas:
For the week, government bond yields were mixed with a light bias towards weakness.
The Japanese 2’s and 5’s yield took a break from rising with the latter ending its 7 week winning streak.
Over the past several weeks, yields remain mostly in sideways travel.
Russian 10 year yields broke their 8 consecutive weeks of increases.
And there may be a change in trend for the U.S. 3 month bills.
Equities were higher, again.
Other than movers listed below, many indices remained subdued for the week.
The KBW Banking Index makes a return to overbought territory (having risen in 5 of the last 6 weeks) as does the S&P MidCap 400 and the FTSE 100.
While Stockholm eases out of that category.
Oslo is in a 5 week winning streak.
Toronto’s TSK extends its winning streak to 7 weeks.
The DAX is in 8 week winning streak.
Italy’s MIB advance extends to 9 consecutive weeks, has spent 7 weeks in overbought territory and is trading at its highest price since April 2008.
Egypt 30 index has tanked 12.4% over the past fortnight.
The Nasdaq 100 is 33% above its 2090 week moving average while the S&P 500 is 27% above the same measure.
Spain’s IBEX has registered an overbought quinella as it trades at its highest point since May 2017.
The FTSE 100 returns to the overbought territory.
And the CAC and DAX are still making new all-time highs.
Commodities were generally higher.
Gold prices across various currencies remains overbought.
Prices related to steel production such as coking coal, iron ore, rebar, are all in oversold territory.
The ‘coking coals’ have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Furthermore, U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel is approaching oversold land too.
Crude Oil, Copper, Tin and Silver moved out of overbought territory.
Rice has fallen for 5 consecutive weeks and its price has declined 14% over that time.
Cocoa has been overbought for 23 weeks.
Aluminium has risen for 5 straight weeks.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 38 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies were tempered for the week.
The AUD was mixed, while the CAD and GBP were stronger.
The Euro wea weaker.
The Yen eked out some small gains,
And the Kiwi has declined for 5 consecutive weeks versus the Aussie.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Roterdam Coal 5.7%, Cocoa 9.3%, WTI Crude Oil 2.8%, Lean Hogs 2.5%, Arabica Coffee 2.2%, LNH in Yen 1.9%, Newcastle Coal 5.7%, Palladium 2.3%, Robusta Coffee 3.8%, Sugar 3.1%, S&P GSCI 1.4%, Brent Crude Oil 1.6%, Gold in AUD 3.1%, Gold in CAD 2.8%, Gold in USD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 3.6%, Gold in EUR 3.3%, Gold in GBP 2.9%, KBW Bank Index 3.1%, DAX 1.6%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.6%, Russell 2000 2.6%, KRE Regional Banks 3.7%, Karachi 2.8%, S&P Midcap 400 2%, South Africa 2%, Chile 1.9%, ASX 200 1.6% and the ASX Materials, Industrials and Small Caps all rose 2% for the week.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (10.5%), Baltic Dry Index (17.1%), China Coking Coal (10.5%), HRC Steel (3.2%), Iron Ore (9.3%), Lumber (3.9%), Natural Gas (3.8%), Nickel (2.8%), Nickel on MCX (4.2%), Shanghai Rebar (2.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (1.5%), Egypt 30 (5.2%) and the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5%.
March 31, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 30, 2024 Leave a comment
What if I don’t want to own and drive an electric vehicle?
I think the internal combustion engine is being discriminated against.
What if specialty fuels solve the lower emissions equation?
Why have #ethanol and #biofuels seemingly been removed from the vernacular?
And what if #hydrogen becomes a ‘thing’?
In amongst the hypocrisy of the #carbon ‘intensity’ that an #electricvehicle requires (or attracts), the internal #combustion #engine is not the ogre for those concerned….it is the #fuel or #energy required to fill up (or recharge) the vehicle.
What if my examples provide cleaner sources of propulsion than the mystical trickle of #electricity into an #EV?
then those fuels still require ‘combustion’…….
#ICE
#energy
March 29, 2024 Leave a comment
Spain’s IBEX is at its most overbought and stretched since April 2015…..but still NOT making an all-time high.
March 29, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 26, 2024 Leave a comment
The two most notable parabolic price moves in recent times is being seen in the price of Cocoa and NVIDIA shares.
Both prices are trading at stratospheric percentages above their 200 week moving averages.
Cocoa is trading 3.5 standard deviations above its rolling monthly mean and even more astonishing, at US$9,950 per ton, it is more expensive than Copper which is trading at US$8,870 per ton.
Mean reversion or mean convergence?
Gravity is real.
March 24, 2024 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations
US10 year minus Australian 10 year yield spread
US10 year divided by Australian 10 year yield spread
WTI Crude Oil
Copper
Tin
S&P GSCI
Brent Crude Oil
Silver in AUD, USD & EUR
Gold in USD
AUD/JPY
AUD/THB
FTSE 100
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Biodiesel
Robusta Coffee
AEX
Budapest
CAC 30
DAX
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Italy’s MIB
Nasdaq Composite
Nikkei 225
Stockholm
Philadelphia SOX
TAIEX
Nasdaq Transports
Toronto’s TSX
Vietnam
And the S&P 500 Index
The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Russian 10 year bond yield
Gold in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP & CHF
Cocoa
IBEX
Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
AU10Y – US10Y yield
Australian Coking Coal
CHF/AUD
Chinese RMB
INR/USD
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields
Lithium Hydroxide
The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields mostly fell except for the Japanese 2’s and 5’s.
The Japanese 5’s winning streak extends to 7 weeks.
Russian 10 year yields have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.
The Chinese 10’s are the notable oversold extreme in this week’s list.
Equities were higher.
Shanghai is in a 6 week winning streak while the CSI 300 broke its 5 week advance.
Toronto’s has sneakily put together 6 straight rising weeks.
The DAX is in a 7 week winning streak, the MIB advance extends to 8 consecutive weeks.
The Nasdaq is 34% above its 2090 week moving average while the S&P 500 is 27% above the same measure.
Egypt’s 30 Index isn’t overbought anymore.
Spain’s IBEX has registered an overbought quinella as it trades at its highest point since June 2017.
The FTSE 100 returns to the overbought territory.
The CAC and DAX are still making new all-time highs.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average re-enters overbought territory.
And Italy’s MIB has traded to its highest point since May 2008.
Commodities were generally higher.
While Rotterdam Coal is in a 5 week winning streak, Most coal prices had a terrible week.
Crude Oil makes a return to overbought land, while Copper and Tin extend their stay there.
Rubber isn’t overbought this week.
Gold prices across various currencies remains overbought.
Cocoa has now spent 22 weeks in overbought land.
Nickel broke its 5 weeks winning streak.
Uranium and the Baltic Dry Index broke their 6 week losing streaks.
And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 37 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.
Currencies saw a firmer CAD again as was the USD.
The AUD was firmer against all except versus the Yen.
The Euro was mixed.
The Yen as did the Kiwi.
The latter is in a 4 week losing streak again the AUD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2.8%, Cocoa 11.5%, LNG JKM in Yen 4%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.8%, Uranium 4%, Gold in CHF 2%, Wheat 5%, All World Developed ex USA 1.2%, AEX 2.9%, Austria 2.6%, KBW Bank 3.7%, DAX 1.5%, DJ Industrials 2%, DJ Transports 3.3%, IBEX 3.3%, Nasdaq Composite 2.9%, KOSPI 3.3%, S&P MidCap 400 2.2%, Nasdaq 100 3%, Nikkei 225 5.6%, Russell 2000 1.5%, SOX 3.2%, S&P 400 2.3%, TAIEX 2.8%, Nasdaq Transports 2.9%, FTSE 100 2.6%, ASX 200 1.3%, BIST 3.2% and the ASX Materials rose 2.4%
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (2.8%), China Coking Coal (2.8%), Rotterdam Coal (2%), Baltic Dry Index (5.5%), Cotton (2.6%), Lean Hogs (2.6%), Copper (3%), Heating Oil (2.4%), Tin (2.3%), Newcastle Coal (4.3%), Nickel (2%), Palladium (8.4%), Platinum (4.8%), Gasoil (1.8%), Silver (2%), Oats (2.1%), Rice (2.7%) and Egypt’s 30 equity index tanked 7.2%.
March 24, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 21, 2024 Leave a comment
Does it matter what #LuluLemon Athletica’s quarterly results are when they are released tomorrow?
In 2008/2009, there was a 5 month period when investors could’ve bought the stock for under $4 per share.
Back then, I felt that I was their most lucrative customer in #LULU‘s Chapel Street, Prahan (Melbourne, Australia) store.
It was my Victor Kiam (of Remington) moment, which I didn’t act on.
Today, the stock is trading at $469, which is 117 times higher.
Is that a 11,700% percent mistake?
And it’s not even a technology company……
And only in October 2023 did the company join the S&P 500 when it’s market cap reached $55 billion.
Perhaps this story falls under the adage of buy your kids (or loved ones) $20,000 of ‘something’ and make them hold it for 15+ years.
March 21, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 20, 2024 Leave a comment
Another chance to buy Tesla shares (for those who believe or completed their due diligence) is nearing again and I think it’ll be at a price much lower than today’s.
March 20, 2024 Leave a comment
For the 8th time in the past 12 years, #Germany‘s DAX Index is registering a weekly overbought reading.
While there is more behind my analysis, this simple study shows that probabilities of a further advance change at this juncture.
Following such an occurrence, we mostly see the #DAX trade sideways, if not lower, for up to 24 months hence.
It’s not a time to chase.
That country #allocation trade began about 20 months in mid-2022.
50% ago.
This note listed that observation.
While the DAX is currently within its 7th consecutive week of higher prices and myopically, it looks like having a little more upside, the ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.
March 20, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
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