Consumer Confidence has never been this lousy

When consumer confidence collapses, buying equities isn’t simply contrarian……..it’s disciplined, calculated prudence.

On a nominal basis, since 1957, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has never printed a lower reading.

The attached study highlights 11 notable instances over the past 45 years where the Index recorded a monthly RSI below 36, signifying periods of extreme pessimism. It also reinforces a recurring truth: equities have an ability to grind higher even as sentiment remains deeply negative.

In that context, today’s mood is not unprecedented, it’s actually quite familiar.

The Index is currently at the same level of “oversold” sentiment seen during:

* the inflation shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022)

* the COVID-19 pandemic (2020)

* the European sovereign debt crisis (2012)

* the Global Financial Crisis lows (2009)

* the aftermath of the September 11 attacks (2001)

* the Gulf War (1991)

and the Black Monday (1987)

In other words, sentiment is at extremes typically associated with periods of maximum uncertainty and more often than not, meaningful opportunity.

April 13, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au