Trying to hear what's not being said
March 29, 2026 Leave a comment
WTI Crude Oil seldom trades here, while Gasoline does it twice as much.
Industrial buyers shouldn’t hedge nor lock in forward prices. Stay on the spot market.
Those hoarding on tankers and in tanks may be disappointed.
Mach 29, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 28, 2026 Leave a comment
Saudi Arabian equities have risen 6% from its recent ebb.
The first strike on Iran occurred on February 28, 2026.
Since then, the Nasdaq 100 has fallen 7%.
March 28, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 27, 2026 Leave a comment
Netflix price changes (in the U.S.) for 2026 include the Standard (No Ads) subscription increasing 11% by $2, from $17.99 to $19.99 per month.
I bet that nobody is cancelling their subscription.
#pricingpower
March 23, 2026 Leave a comment
At US$99, the WTI Crude Oil price is subjectively resembling a mini-parabola.
My work suggests that it falls $30, rather than rising $30.
Adding to the weight of my view is challenging the antithesis of the broad (anecdotally) opinion that WTI Crude price sees $150 or $200.
Whilst it’s not the most intellectual of analysis, observing the madness of the crowd has some merit.
March 23, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 22, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
10-year Austria, Belgian, Brazilian, Chilan, Czech, Spanish, British, Italian, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese and U.S. government bond yields.
2-year Chilean and U.S. government bond yields.
3-year U.S. bond yields
5-year EU and U.S. bond yields
7-year U.S. bond yields
20 year U.S. bond yields
British 30-year bond yields
U.S. 5–7-year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields
TBX
U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield
U.S. 5-year bond yield minus U.S. inflation rate spread
Cotton
Palm Oil *
Sugar
Oats *
AUC/CHF *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Aussie 3-year government bond yields.
Australian and Japanese 5-year bond yields.
10-year Japanese bond yields
Australian Coking Coal
Rotterdam Coal *
Bloomberg Commodity Index *
North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
AUD/EUR *
AUD/GBP *
AUD/IDR
AUD/INR
AUD/JPY
AUD/SGD
CNH/USD
TAEIX *
KOSPI
OBX *
TA 35 Index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Australian, EU, British and Italian 2-year government bond yields.
British 3 & 5 year bond yields
Indonesian and Greek 10-year government bond yields.
Richards Bay Coal *
Brent Crude Oil *
WTI Crude Oil *
Heating Oil *
JKM LNG in USD and Yen *
Newcastle Coal *
Gasoline *
S&P GSCI Index *
CRB Index *
Dutch TTF Gas *
Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *
Gasoil *
AUD/ZAR
AUD/THB *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
IEI
SHY
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 5 year minus 2 year bond yield spread
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread
CHF/AUD *
KRW/USD *
CAC Index
IDX Composite *
DAX Index
Nasdaq Composite
S&P 500
ASX Industrials *
UAE’s DFM Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
EUR/AUD
GBP/AUD *
HKD/USD
JPY/AUD
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2 year bond yield spread
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 5 year bond yield spread
NZD/AUD *
INR/USD
NIFTY *
SENSEX *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, again.
More 10-year government bond yields joined the overbought list.
Many more yield spreads are on this week’s list.
And Chilean 2-year yields have risen for 7 consecutive weeks.
Equities continued their decline.
Austria’s ATX, Indonesia’s IDX, DJ Industrials, BOVESPA, S&P Small Cap 600, Russell 2000, Nasdaq Composite, KRE Regional Banks, S&P MidCap 400, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, NIFTY and ASX Financials have all declined for 4 straight weeks.
China’s FCATC has fallen for 5 weeks.
Pakistan’s KSE has declined for 8 weeks.
Inversely, Norway’s OBX has risen for 8 weeks.
Australia’s Materials Index has slumped 20% within 3 weeks.
Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 27% over the past 8 weeks.
And India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025.
Commodities were mixed, again.
Coal, Oils, LNG, Coffee, Sugar and Distillates were the notable gainers.
Aluminium, Copper, Tn, Orange Juice, Palladium, Silver, Gold and Soybeans were amongst the decliners.
Gold in no longer overbought, no matter which currency.
Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 5 weeks straight.
Sugar #16 is in a 6-week winning streak.
Iron Ore fell and snapped 4 weeks of advance.
Soybeans fell and broke a 6 week winning streak
U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 15 consecutive weeks.
And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since late November, 2025.
Currencies were quieter.
The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.
AUD/EUR fell and snapped a 12 week rising streak.
The Loonie was weaker.
The Euro rose.
The Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke a 6 week losing run.
CAD/JPY fell and broke a 4 week winning streak.
While the Colombian Peso has declined for 5 weeks against the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 3.6%, Richards Bay Coal 4.6%, Brent Crude 8.8%, WTI Crude 1.9%, Cotton 2.2%, Heating Oil 13.8%, JKM LNG 18.4%, Arabica Coffee 8.6%, Cattle 1.7%, JKM LNG in Yen9.5%, Newcastle Coal 7.5%, Gasoline 8%, Robusta Coffee 6.1%, Sugar 9.3%, Sugar #16 5.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 16.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.2%, Gasoil 19%, KBW Banks 1.6%, EGX 1.8%, KOSPI 5.4%, SET 1.7%, STI 2.2%, TA35 3.3% and Dubai’s DFM Index rose 2.3%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (8.8%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (6.6%), Lithium Carbonate (2.5%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.1%), Tin (8.4%), Natural Gas (2%), Orange Juice (19%), Palladium (8.5%), Platinum (3.5%), Uranium (2.9%), Silver in AUD (16.2%), Silver in USD (15.8%), Gold in AUD (11%), Gold in CAD (10.5%), Gold in CHF (10.8%), Gold in EUR (11.6%), Gold in GBP (11.2%), Gold in USD (10.5%), Gold in ZAR (10.2%), Oats (4.9%), Rice (2.5%), Soybean (5.2%), Wheat (3%), Shanghai Composite (3.4%), CSI 300 (2.2%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), AEX (4%), ATX (1.3%), CAC (3.1%), DAX (4.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), FCATC (4.3%), MIB (3.3%), IBB (2.3%), IBEX (2%), Russell 2000 (1.8%), Nasdaq Composite (2.1%), FTSE 250 (3.3%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.6%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2%), Copenhagen (2.7%), Helsinki (2.4%), Stockholm (5.1%), South Africa 40 (4.8%), SMI (4%), IGPA (1.7%), S&P 500 (1.9%), TSX (3.8%), FTSE (3.3%), Vietnam (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.2%), ASX Materials (7.1%), ASX Industrials (2.4%) and the ASX Smal Caps fell 4%.
March 22, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
March 22, 2026 Leave a comment
The ASX Industrials index has fallen 10% over the past 3 weeks,
and is trading at some extremes not seen for a while,
albeit, it’s not enough to register a quinella or trifecta of extremes.
March 22, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 21, 2026 Leave a comment
The circles in the attached price chart of Blackstone told me when not to chase and buy the stock.
And if you owned it, these moments were also good signals to suggest selling.
For those who like to buy and hold, today’s price is the same level seen 5 years ago.
And now……..
March 21, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 15, 2026 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Austria, Brazilian, Swiss, Czech, Spanish, British, Greek, Indonesian, Italian, Norwegian, Polish and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields.
2 & 3 year British and U.S. government bond yields.
British 5 year bond yield
U.S. 5-7 year Investment Grade, High Yield and BB Rated yields
Palm Oil
Corn
Wheat *
AUD/CHF
AUD/ZAR
CAD/EUR
CAD/GBP
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Australian 2- & 3-year government bond yield.
Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year bond yields.
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Gold in CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR *
AUD/GBP *
AUD/IDR *
AUD/JPY *
AUD/SGD *
CNH/USD *
TAEIX *
OBX *
TA 35 Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
2-year German and Italian bond yields
Richards Bay Coal *
Aluminium *
Rotterdam Coal *
Bloomberg Commodity Index *
Brent Crude Oil *
WTI Crude Oil *
Heating Oil *
North American Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
JKM LNG in USD and Yen *
Newcastle Coal *
Gasoline *
S&P GSCI Index *
CRB Index *
Dutch TTF Gas *
Urea (U.S, Gulf and Middle East) *
Gasoil *
Oats *
Soybeans
AUD/EUR *
AUD/THB *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
CHF/AUD
KRW/USD
IDX Composite *
HSCEI *
Hang Seng *
Pakistan’s KSE
ASX Industrials
UAE’s DFM Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Australian 10 year minus Aussie 2-year yield spread *
London and CME Cocoa *
Sugar #16 *
EUR/CHF *
GBP/AUD *
INR/USD
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
NZD/AUD *
NIFTY
SENSEX
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, again.
A host of new 10 year government bond yields joined the overbought list.
Some U.S. and EU yields are also members of this week’s edition.
And Chilean 2 year yields have risen for weeks.
Equities continued their decline.
Only few appear in the group of advancers.
Norway’s OBX has risen for 7 weeks.
Indonesia’s IDX Composite man reverted having fallen 23% over the past 7 weeks.
The Dow Jones Transports is 10% lower over the past fortnight.
Dubai’s DFM Index has fallen 18% over the same time.
India’s NIFTY is at its lowest close since early April 2025
And some Hong Kong indices are oversold.
Commodities were mixed.
Oils, Distillates Palm Oil, Orange Juice, Oats, Soybeans and Sugar were the notable gainers.
Coal, Coffee, Platinum, Palladium, Tin and Silver were amongst the decliners.
Gold in some currencies are no longer overbought.
Aluminium, Brent Crude, Heating Oil, WTI Crude, JKM LNG, Gasoline, CRB Index and Middle Eastern Urea have closed higher for 4 weeks straight.
Sugar #16 is in a 5 week winning streak.
Soybeans have climbed for 6 weeks.
U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 14 consecutive weeks.
And Copper is at its lowest weekly close since December 29, 2025.
Currencies were busy.
The Aussie rose and AUD pairs still feature amongst the extremes.
AUD/EUR in a12 week rising streak.
The Loonie was firmer.
The Swissie fell.
And the Yen was mixed.
CAD/JPY has climbed for 4 weeks.
While the Colombian Peso has declined for 4 weeks against the USD.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Australian Coking Coal 4.5%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.6%, Brent Crude 11.3%, Cocoa 2.1%, WTI Crude 8.6%, Cotton 2.6%, DXY Index 1.7%, Palm Oil 4.7%, Heating Oil 10.8%, JKM LNG 2.1%, Lumber 1.5%, Orange Juice 10.6%, Gasoline 10.7%, Sugar 1.9%, Sugar #16 2.7%, CRB Index 3.9%, Urea U.S. Gulf 3.4%, Gasoil 2.4%, Corn 1.5%, Oats 10.3%, Soybeans 2%, AEX 2.2%, China A50 2.1%, OBX 2.2%, SOX 1.8%, IGPA 1.6% and BIST rose 2.4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (1.8%), Rotterdam Coal (3.9%), Iron Ore (2.5%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Arabica Coffee (2.8%), Cattle (1.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (4.4%), Lithium Hydroxide (1.7%), Natural Gas (1.7%), Palladium (5%), Platinum (4.7%), Robusta Coffee (8.4%), Tin (5.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.7%), Silver in AUD (3.9%), Silver in ISD (4.5%), Gold in AUD (2.2%), Gold in CAD (1.9%)< Gold in GBP (1.5%), Gold in USD (3%), All World Developed ex USA (2.3%), ATX (2.6%), KBW Banks (4.2%), IDX (5.9%), DJ Industrials (1.9%), DJ Transports (4%), S&P Small Cap 600 (2.2%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), KRE Regional Banks (2.8%), KSE (2.3%), KOSPI (1.8%), FTSE 250 (1.9%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.9%), Mexico (2.5%), Nikkei 225 (3.2%), NIFTY (5.3%), Copenhagen (1.5%), PSE (4.1%), PX (3%), SENSEX (5.5%), SMI (2%), S&P 500 (1.6%), TA35 (4.1%), Nasdaq Transports (5.7%), TSX (1.6%), Vietnam (4.1%), XBI (1.8%), ASX 200 (2.6%), ASX Materials (4.7%), ASX Industrials (4.3%), ASX Small Caps (4.7%) and the UAE’s DFM Index sunk 8.3%.
March 15, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
March 13, 2026 Leave a comment
The December 21, 2025 edition of my weekly, weekend Macro Extremes pointed to Brent Crude registered an oversold extreme.
That was when the long trade had an acceptable risk/reward proposition.
Any new long position (in the absence of subscribing to momentum) initiated over the past week or three wasn’t stacked with the best probability.
March 13, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 9, 2026 Leave a comment
Prices tell you everything.
As far as WTI Crude Oil prices are concerned,
it’s time to have one foot out the door.
They seldom (to never) trade to the metrics and extremes that I’m seeing today.
March 9, 2026
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 