Trying to hear what's not being said
June 19, 2025 Leave a comment
In my mid May ‘Macro Extremes’ note, 2025 Australia’s ASX Industrials (XNJ) Index registered one of my overbought readings.
One month later, the XNJ has only drifted 1% higher….
but it is now very close to registering more notable, longer term overbought extremes.
June 19, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 19, 2025 Leave a comment
If you bought the Los Angeles Lakers basketball club for $67.5 million in 1979, you could sell them today for $10 billion.
If you invested $67.5 million in the S&P 500 in 1979, it would worth $10 billion today.
That’s about an annual compounded return of 12%.
June 18, 2025 Leave a comment
In the April 4, 2025 edition of my weekly Macro Extremes publication, Taiwan’s TAEIX equity index registered a quinella of oversold readings (a week prior to the broader April 7-9 lows) while also reverting down to a longer-term mean.
The TAIEX has risen 23% since then (over the past 10 weeks)…..
Momentarily, at today’s price (22,211), I think we’ve seen the ‘fat part’ of the trade as this advance looks like losing stream.
June 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 17, 2025 Leave a comment
Soon, there will be noise about the Euro’s strength versus the USD…and it’ll be time to sell it.
Remember, all the hoopla when the Euro was falling towards parity against the U.S. Dollar and predictions of its unworthiness were common?
The EUR/USD appeared as an oversold extreme back then in January 2025 in my weekly edition of Macro Extremes.
That was when a host of forecasts were on the wrong side of it all, such as;
“”We maintain a target of $1 for the euro for Q2…..we expect the theme of broad USD strength to remain in force,”
“our view for the next few months is for the dollar to still be quite strong. Even thinking about what potential new policies could be unveiled…….it should be favoring the dollar. In some ways, there’s a flavour of ‘there is no alternative,”
Since, the USD has fallen 10% and the EUR/USD has risen 12%.
That is not the USD strength and weaker and subdued Euro.
June 17, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 15, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Czech 10 year government bond yield *
Rotterdam Coal
Brent Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil
Heating Oil
Palladium
Platinum *
Silver in AUD and USD
Oats *
KOSPI *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Gold
CHF/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
DKK/USD
SEK/USD
And Chile’s IPSA equity index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
KOSPI *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Sugar #16
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
HKD/USD
And Thailand’s SET equity index
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
Indonesian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 4 straight weeks.
Aussie 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be at maximum bullishness, so I look for the spread to decline. I see the same in the U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread.
A reminder that U.S. 10’s minus U.S. 5’s recently spent time as an overbought quinella extreme.
Chilean 10’s minus 2’s are nearly overbought.
British 30 year bond yields have fallen for 3 weeks. Whilst its not a meaningful streak, I reminisce about the recent hoopla surrounding the surge in 30 year Gilts.
Danish 10’s broke their 4 week winning streak.
Japan 2’s broke their 5 week rising streak and Korean 10 year bond yield saw their 6 week climb, come to an end.
And I’m expecting U.S. real interest rates to fall and converge toward a medium term mean.
Equities were mixed with a bias towards weakness.
But not as week as the sentiment may suggest.
There were many small gainers and losers either side of last week’s close.
For example, the SOX managed to rise 1.5% for the week, even after falling 2.6% on Friday.
South Korea’s KOSPI is overbought.
While the DAX and IBEX fell and are no longer overbought. The latter broke an 8 weeks winning streak.
Norway’s OMX is nearly at an overbought quinella extreme reading.
Thailand’s SET is in a 5 week losing streak and os now oversold.
South African 40 broke its 4 week wining streak.
The All World Developed (ex USA) index is in a 5 week winning streak and has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks, along with Canada’s TSX.
The FTSE 100, ASX Financials, ASX 200 and ASX Small Caps are in 5 week winning streaks and have risen in 8 of the past 9 weeks.
The FTSE 100 has also performed the latter feat.
Commodities were stronger.
The big news is the surge in oil prices. Brent Crude, Heating Oil and WTI Crude have risen 17%, 17% and 19% respectively over the past fortnight.
The Baltic Dry Index has surged 40% over the past 3 weeks and to its highest closing price since last September 2024.
Silver and Gold make a return to overbought extremes.
Palladium joins Platinum being overbought, while Cattle and Steel depart that stratosphere.
The largest winners were Oils and Distillates, most gases, Gold, Platinum, Aluminium and Shipping Rates (again).
The notable losers included Cocoa, Sugar, Nickel, Orange Juice, and surprisingly, Henry Hub Natural Gas.
The Copper/Gold ratio fell to reflect a ‘risk-off’ bias.
During Friday’s trading session, Platinum initially rose 2% on Israeli/Irani tensions to then reverse and fall $100 per ounce (or 7%) to finish down 5% from the previous day’s close.
U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke its 5 week winning streak and is no longer overbought.
U.S. Gulf Urea broke its 4 week losing streak.
Sugar prices have fallen for the past 5 weeks.
Robusta Coffee is in a 7 week losing streak.
While Rice has risen for 5 straight weeks.
Currencies were active.
The Aussie fell commensurately with the ‘risk-off’ sentiment.
Loonie was mixed, again.
The Swissie was stronger as was the Euro.
The U.S. (DXY) Dollar Index is nearly oversold, after all Trump did ‘want’ a weaker Dollar,
while this week sees a host of oversold USD pairs.
And the BRL/USD is near entering an upward trend.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 2.9%, Rotterdam Coal 1.8%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.9%, Baltic Dry Index 20.5%, Brent Crude 11.6%, WTI Crude Oil 13%, Heating Oil 10.7%, JKM LNG 4%, Lumber 3.7%, Platinum 3.8%, Gasoline 7.4%, S&P GSCI 4.3%, CRB Index 3%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.5%, Gasoil 10%, Urea Middle East 2.6%, Gold 3%, TAEIX 1.9%, KOSPI 2.9%, Oslo 2.7% and the SOX rose 1.5%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (1.5%), Cocoa (6.2%), HRC (1.8%), Arabica Coffee (2.8%), Cattle (2.9%), Natural Gas (5.4%), Nickel (2.5%), Orange Juice (3.8%), Palladium (1.7%), Sugar (2.2%), Sugar #16 (3.5%), Wheat (2%), ATX (2.1%), KBW Banks (2.6%), CAC (1.5%), DAX (3.2%), DJ Industrials (1.3%), MIB (2.9%), IBEX (2.4%), S&P SmallCaps 600 (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (0.6%), KRE Regional Banks (3.1%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.5%), Stockholm (2.5%), Russell 2000 (1.5%), SMI (1.8%), S&P 500 (0.4%), TA35 (1.5%) and the Nasdaq Transports fell 2.5%.
June 15, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 13, 2025 Leave a comment
Why y’all chasing the oil price now?…….It’s too late.
West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude touched below $55 and $58 respectively, on 2 occasions in April and May 2025.
Today, somebody (hedge funds, oil traders, corporate treasury, speculators) paid $78. The odds (and probability) of being long oil have changed.
Today’s price action is clogged up in Israel’s attack on Iran.
The time for preparedness of entering the long oil trade was around these dates when I wrote about it;
April 4, 2024
“I need to respect the rising probability of $55 on WTI Crude.”
April 15, 2025
“It could coincide with #Brent Crude trading down to $58.”
May 8, 2025
“The prices of the 3 stocks mentioned (BP, Woodside and Occidental) recently all touched the prices mentioned in that September 4, 2024 note.”
Let’s wait until next time, for a new moment to buy Oil.
Send me an email if you’re interested in hiring my services.
June 13, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 12, 2025 Leave a comment
Ya know that Bitcoin’s USD price is close correlated to the S&P 500 Index….
and when it’s not, often the SPX rises against BTC’s decline.
June 12, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 11, 2025 Leave a comment
Typically, dictator (emperor) type behaviour and desires prevail when the broader population of the nation/empire are lowly educated and often poor.
Then comes the promise of equality to those many. That’s why socialism works for those many.
While an emperor convinces one part of the population, many others are indeed educated and wealthy.
And so, then the campaign begins to invite and convince the educated and wealthy to join the emperor’s cause and ideals, so that they a) are allowed to retain what they already have (see confiscation) and 2) gain a little more under the new and improved way of doing things.
But those poor and uneducated will all collectively pay for everything (including using a public bathroom) just for the privilege of (and giving thanks to) equality or perhaps just a loaf of bread and a quart of milk.
June 10, 2025 Leave a comment
In a new edition of ‘gravity sucks’, this is the stock price of a listed gold mining company.
Observe the parabola and its distance above a longer term mean.
June 10, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 8, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Rotterdam Coal
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Platinum *
Silver in AUD and USD
Oats *
KOSPI *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Cattle
Germany’s DAX
Spain’s IBEX index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Tel Aviv 25 Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Robusta Coffee *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields mostly rose.
BB corporate bond yields mean reverted, as did Indonesian 10’s.
Japanese 2 year bond yields have risen or 5 straight weeks.
South Korean 10 year yields have climbed for 6 consecutive weeks.
Italian 10 year bond yields broke their 4 weeks of decline.
And the last of the U.S. bond spreads have left overbought territory.
Equities had a terrific week, again.
The FTSE 100, South African 40, ASX Financials and ASX 200 have risen for 4 straight weeks.
The latter has climbed for 7 weeks of the past 8.
Thailand’s SET is in a 4 week declining streak.
Spain’s IBEX is in a 8 weeks winning streak
Germany’s DAX joins the IBEX at an overbought extreme.
And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 8 of the past 9 weeks.
Commodities were stronger.
The largest winners were Thermal Coal, Oils and Distillates, Tin, Copper, Gases, Platinum, Palladium, Silver and Shipping Rates
The notable losers included Coking Coal, Sugar, Uranium and Lithium Carbonate.
Platinum remains overbought while Silver in AUD makes a new appearance being so.
Oats, Cattle and Rotterdam Coal prices are also at overbought extremes.
U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel is in a 5 week winning streak and is at an overbought extreme.
Robusta Coffee has fallen for 6 weeks.
Sugar and U.S. Gulf Urea prices have sunk for the past 4 weeks.
While Rice has risen for 4 straight weeks.
Currencies were subdued.
The Aussie rose.
Loonie was mixed.
The Yen was weaker
And the USD was mostly softer.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Richards Bay Coal 3.2%, Rotterdam Coal 7.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 3.3%, Baltic Dry Index 15.2%, Brent Crude 5.9%, Cocoa 4.8%, WTI Crude Oil 6.2%, Copper 3.7%, Heating Oil 6%, U.S. Hot Rolled Coal Steel 4.5%, JKM LNG 2.4%, Arabica Coffee 4.6%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 4.6%, JKM in Yen 5%, Tin 6.8%, Newcastle Coal 2.2%, Natural Gas 9.8%, Nickel 1.6%, Palladium 10%, Platinum 10.7%, Gasoline 3.1%, S&P GSCI 3.9%, CRB Index 3.6%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.9%, Gasoil 5.5%, Silver in AUD 8%, Silver in USD 9.1%, Soybean 1.5%, Wheat 3.9%, HSCEI 2.3%, Hang Seng 2.2%, IBB biotech 4.3%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, Russell 2000 3.3%, TAIEX 1.5%, Nasdaq Composite 2.2%, KRE Regional Banks 2%, KSE 1.6%, KOSPI 4.2%, S&P MidCap 400 1.8%, NBI biotech 4.3%, Nasdaq 100 2%, Oslo 1.5%, Copenhagen 2.8%, SA40 2.4%, SOX 5.9%, SPX 1.5%, Nasdaq Transports 1.8%, XBI biotech 6.4% and ASX Financials rose 2%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (2%), Lithium Carbonate (1.6%), Robusta Coffee (1.6%), Sugar (3.3%), Uranium (1.8%), IDX (2.1%) and Poland’s WIG Index fell 2.2%.
June 8, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 