Macro Extremes # 283 (week ending October 23, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets, on a weekly timeframe, either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below their rolling mean.

NB: Pricing of commodity futures contracts considers only the immediate front-month contract.

* denotes multiple-week inclusion.

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Extremes Above the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. BB High Yield *

U.S. 5-year breakeven inflation rate

AUD/EUR

BRL/USD

CAD/EUR *

Mexican IPC equity index

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Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. High Yield Bond Index *

Belgian, French, Indian and Italian 10-Year Government Bond Yields *

Italian and Japanese 2-year Bond Yields *

British 2- and 3-year Bond Yields *

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rate *
Rotterdam Coal *

Brent and WTI Crude Oil

Heating Oil

North American Hot Roled Coil Steel

LNG JKM in Yen *

Sugar # 16

Dutch TTF Gas *

Gasoil

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread *

Japanese Naphtha *

CNH/USD *

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The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and >2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

GBP/EUR
USD/MXN *

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Extremes Below the Mean (At least 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Chinese 10-year bond yield

Silver in AUD

EUR/AUD

EUR/CAD *

USD/BRL

Shanghai Composite Index *

Italy’s MIB Index *

ASX Small Cap Index *

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Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lean Hogs *

Lumber
China CFR Iron Ore *

PHP/USD

USD/CNH

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The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and >2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Palladium *

Lithium Hydroxide

EUR/GBP

MXN/USD *

CSI 300 Index *

China A50 Index

Saudi Arabia Tadawul Index *

Türkiye’s BIST Index *

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Notes & Ideas

Government Bond Yields Mostly Fell

The U.S. high yield index completed an upward mean reversion.

France’s 10-year bond yield has spent 7 weeks being overbought.

Japanese and American 2-year yields along with Dutch 10’s have fallen for 4 weeks.

As have the U.S. 5- and 10-year real interest rate spreads.

And Indian 10-year yields have risen for 10 weeks.

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Equities Were Broadly Weaker

The All World Developed ex USA and KOSPI are in a 4-week losing streak.

Shanghai Composite, FCATC Index, KSE and ASX Small Caps have closed lower for the past 5 weeks.

Türkiye’s BIST Index has fallen for 6 weeks.

Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul and the ASX Materials have sunken for 8 weeks straight.

The CSI 300, China A50 are in 11-week losing streaks. The latter completed a reversion to the mean.

Inversely, the ASX Industrials has risen for 4 weeks.

The KBW Banks Index and the Russell 2000 rose and snapped their respective 6-week losing streaks.

While the Vietnam & XBI rose and broke a 4-week losing streak.

The AEX fell and ended its 4-week winning run.

The ASX Financials have advanced 7% over the past 2 weeks.

And following 13 weeks, Poland’s WIG Index departed overbought territory.

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Commodity Prices Were Mixed

Oil, LNG, Shipping Rates and Nickel were the notable gainers.

Natural Gas, Precious Metals, Grains, Lumber and Lithium were amongst the largest decliners.

There was a slight rotation of several commodity names from last week.

Heating Oil and Dutch TTF Gas have put together 4 weeks of higher prices.

Rotterdam Coal, Brent Crude and Newcastle Coal have risen for 5 weeks.

Sugar fell and snapped its 4-week winning run.

Corn has sunken for 4 weeks.

Platinum has fallen for consecutive 5 weeks.

Palladium and Wheat have fallen for 8 weeks.

Silver has fallen for 4 of the past 5 weeks.

And the Gasoline crack spread is 28% lower over the past 3 weeks.

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Currencies Were Active

The Aussie and the Loonie were higher.

The USD and Swissie were weaker, while the Yen was mixed.

CAD/EUR, COP/USD, GBP/EUR and USD/PHP are in 4-week winning streaks.

USD/KRW has fallen for 5 weeks.

EUR/CHF is in a 6-week losing streak,

And the Mexican Peso has fallen for 7 weeks.

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The Week’s Larger Advancers

The larger advancers over the past week comprised Aluminium 1.4%, Brent Crude 5.9%, Baltic Dry Index 5.9%, WTI Crude 4.3%, Heating Oil 1.4%, JKM LNG 5%, Nickel 1.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 7.2%, Rice 1.2%, Gasoil crack spread 2.2%, IDX 4.9%, IBB 2.9%, S&P Small Cap 600 1.7%, Russell 2000 2%, KRE 3.8%, NBI 2.5%, Vietnam 4%, XBI 3.6%, ASX Financials 4% and ASX Industrials rose 2.7%.

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The Week’s Larger Decliners

The group of largest decliners for the week included Lean Hogs (2%), Lumber (2.6%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.1%), Natural Gas (15.3%), Orange Juice (3%), Palladium (6%), Platinum (4.3%), Robusta Coffee (5.5%), Sugar (2.9%), Silver (6%), Gold (4%), Corn (3.9%), Oats (6.5%), Wheat (5.4%), Gasoline crack (9.1%), ATX (4.4%), BUX (2.4%), CAC (2.2%), China A50 (2.2%), DAX (1.7%), DFM (2.3%), EGX (2.3%), FCATC (2.6%), Tadawul (4%), MIN (2.6%), HSCEI (4.6%), Hang Seng (4.5%), IBEX (1.7%), Dublin (1.8%), TAIEX (2.3%), KSE (2.4%), Kospi (2.1%), NKY (4%), Nifty (2.4%), Helsinki (3.3%), Stockholm (3.7%), PSI (2.4%), PX (2.8%), SA40 (3.1%), Sensex (2.2%), SOX (3.2%), IGPA (2%), Eurostoxx 50 (2.2%), TA35 (2.4%), FTSE 100 (1.8%), WIG (1.8%), BIXT (5.2%), XSO (3.9%) and the ASX Materials sunk 7.7%.

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October 25, 2026
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au