Trying to hear what's not being said
May 31, 2025 Leave a comment
Not to be used in isolation (as there are other cross reference points)……but when the USD is oversold on a weekly basis against the Swiss Franc…..I either stay or initiate ‘longs’ in equities.
May 31, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 30, 2025 Leave a comment
For all the passive “it’s time in the market, not timing the market” types,
many Australian “blue chips” (that crutch which investors lean on, in the absence of applying any financial analysis or acumen) are today trading at the same price they were in 2008, 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2020.
As a sample, here are the price charts of Westpac, BHP and Woolworths.
Before someone replies with a something that resembles, “but at least I received my dividends”…..
I have also attached a price chart of Amazon (AMZN).
May 30, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 25, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
British 30 year government bond yield
U.S. 30 year government bond yield
Norwegian 10 year government bond yield
TBT & TBX
Platinum
MYR/USD
THB/USD
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread
Gold in AUD and USD
GBP/USD
PHP/USD
And Spain’s IBEX index *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
None
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
None
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
USD/SEK
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Most Government bond yields rose, again as did investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.
Australian and Euro bond yields along with British 2, 3 & 5 year yields fell.
IEF and TLT are in 4 week losing streaks.
Indian 10 year bond yields rose and broke their 7 weeks of decline.
Italian 2 year bond yields broke their 4 week rising streak.
U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought
And U.S. 5, 7, 10, 20 and 30 year yields are in 4 week rising streaks along with the U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month spread and the respective U.S. 5 year yield and U.S 10 year yield minus inflation rate.
Equities were mostly weaker.
Predictably, many of the winning streaks appearing in last weeks edition have come to an end.
The remaining winning streaks intact belong to the Jakarta Composite, HSCEI, Hang Seng and the IBEX, sitting at 6 weeks.
Spain’s IBEX remains the only index in overbought territory.
And the All World Developed (ex USA) index has risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks.
Commodities were mixed.
The largest winners were LNG, Copper, Orange Juice, Precious Metals & Grains.
The notable losers included Cocoa, Hogs, Urea, Robusta Coffee and Shipping Rates.
Platinum is overbought and Gold in AUD and USD returned to being so.
Newcastle and Richards Bay Coal rose and are no longer oversold.
Cattle and Urea left overbought territory.
Uranium broke its 5 week winning streak.
Corn rose and broke its 5 week losing streak.
Currencies were little more active.
The big news was the 2% decline in the U.S. (DXY) Dollar and it broke its 4 consecutive weeks of advance.
The Greenback feel more than 2% against the Won, Yen, Swiss and Swedish Krona.
USD/ZAR is in a 7 week falling streak.
The Aussie broke all streaks which appeared in last weeks edition. The AUD fell everywhere except vs the USD, where it rose 1.4%
The Swiss and Yen were firmer, mimicking the risk-off sentiment seen in equities.
The British Pound was stronger and has risen for 6 straight weeks against the EUR.
And the Loonie was mixed.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Rotterdam Coal 1.4%, All World Developed (ex USA) 1.7%, Cotton 1.9%, Copper 5.3%, JKM LNG 5%, Cattle 1.8%, LNG in Yen 4.1%, Newcastle Coal 4.3%, Orange Juice 8.8%, Palladium 4.6%, Platinum 9.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 3.7%, Silver in AUD 2.2%, Silver in USD 3.7%, Gold in AUD 3.3%, Gold in CAD 3.2%, Gold in CHF 2.8%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in Sterling 2.8%, Gold in USD 4.9%, Gold in ZAR 3.9%, Corn 3.6%, Oats 3.6%, Rice 2.8%, Wheat 3.3%, IDX 1.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) rose 1.4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (3.5%), Cocoa (10.4%), DXY (1.9%), Lean Hogs (2%), Tin (1.7%), Aluminium (1.7%), Gasoline (1.3%), Robusta Coffee (1.5%), Sugar (1.3%), Urea (3.2%), Gasoil (1.1%), AEX (1.5%), KBW Bank (4.1%), BUX (1.7%), CAC (1.9%), DJ Industrials (2.4%), DJ Transports (4.1%), MIB (2.9%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.2%), Russell 2000 (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KLSE (2.3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.6%), Nasdaq 100 (2.4%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%) and the OMX Stockholm fell 2.5%.
May 25, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 22, 2025 Leave a comment
I’m not surprised by yesterday’s report that British inflation rose.
It’s currently 3.5%.
13 months ago, I wrote about the extreme lows being seen then and that 5% was my prediction (and remains so) to where UK inflation would move to.
And so I think UK inflation will rise further together with other correlated assets and securities.
May 22, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 21, 2025 Leave a comment
Hey cattle farmers, at your next several weekly auctions, sell a bit more of your herd than usual.
I am seeing Live Cattle futures prices trading at their most ‘extreme. since the contracts inception.
This is as good as it gets for cattle farmers and beef processors.
And perhaps its the worst it can be for buyers of beef.
May 21, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 18, 2025 Leave a comment
Extrapolating from my note 6 days ago, suggesting the advance has been good enough….the Nasdaq 100 has now soared 29.5% in the past 6 weeks since my oversold call on April 4th.
My series of newsletters from mid-March to mid April was also informing readers of notable extreme lows being seen in equities.
https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/its-noisiest-at-the-extremes
Feel free to subscribe to the newsletter as it’s not always published on this medium.
Today, indices are reasonably ‘full’, while there are nuances and reasons to remain ‘long’ in my selected securities.
May 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 18, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Cattle
India’s NIFTY
And the ASX Industrials equity index
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
Hungary’s BUX index
Spain’s IBEX index
Czechia’s PX Index *
and Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Tel Aviv 25 equity index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
None
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Indian 10 year government bond yield *
Richards Bay Coal *
Lumber
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Newcastle Coal
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose again, again.
Italian 2 year bond yields have risen for 4 weeks.
Brazilian and Indonesian 10 year yields broke their 4 straight weeks of decline.
U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought.
Equities had a tremendous week.
Several indices are overbought and many streaks are in progress.
The TAEIX, SOX and Nasdaq Transports have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.
The AEX, ATX, DAX, MIB, HSCEI, Hang Seng, IBEX, KLSE, KRE Regional Banks, KOSPI, OMX Helsinki, PSE, Strait Times, IDX and the ASX Materials and Industrials have climbed for 5 straight weeks.
The Bovespa, S&P SmallCap 600, Russell 2000, FTSE 250, IPSA, S&P MidCap 400, ASX SmallCaps, TSX and KBW Banks Index are in 6 week winning streaks.
Israel’s TA35 broke its 4 week winning streak.
SET, WIG and the ASX SmallCaps broke their 5 weeks of consecutive advance.
The Dow Jones Industrials has risen 5 of the past 6 weeks.
Commodities were mixed.
The largest winners were Oils & Distillates, Gases (again), Cocoa, Orange Juice, Lumber and Tin.
The notable losers included Coal, Cotton, Coffee, Natural Gas, Silver and Gold.
Heating Oil has risen 7.5% over the past 2 weeks.
Lumber left oversold territory as did Gold across as priced against all currencies.
Gold prices are at their lowest close since April 10th.
Newcastle Coal returned to being oversold.
Rubber & Cattle broke its 4 week winning streak.
Uranium has risen for 5 week straight streaks.
Rice & Wheat broke a 4 week losing streak.
Corn has declined 12% during its 5 week losing streak.
And U.S. Gulf Urea prices broke their 5 straight weeks of advance.
Currencies were subdued, but there are many streaks in play.
All the currencies which appeared as extremes in last week’s list, are no longer so.
The British Pound was mixed, Yen flat, Aussie firmer and Euro weaker.
The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has risen for 4 weeks.
AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF and AUD/EUR are in a 6 week winning streak.
AUD/CHF and the GBP/JPY have risen for 5 weeks.
While on the losing streaks, the USD/ZAR has declined for 6 consecutive weeks.
The AUD/ZAR has fallen for 5 straight weeks.
CHF/AUD and the EUR/GBP are in 5 week losing streaks.
BRL/USD broke its 4 weeks of advance against the USD.
PHP/USD broke its 5 week winning streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 3.5%, Baltic Dry Index 6.9%, Brent Crude 2.2%, Cocoa 18.6%, WTI Crude 2.4%, Lean Hogs 2.8%, Heating Oil 3.7%, Lumber 5.2%, Tin 2.8%, Orange Juice 9.8%, Gasoline 1.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.6%, Gasoil 3%, Uranium 1.9%, ATX 3%, AEX 2.8%, KBW Banks 6.5%, BUX 3.2%, CAC 1.9%, China A50 1.7%, DJ Industrials 3.4%, DJ Transports 8%, MIB 3.3%, HSCEI 1.9%, Hang Seng 2.1%, BOVESPA 2%, IDX 4.5%, S&P SmallCap 600 4.7%, Russell 2000 4.5%, TAEIX 4.4%, Nasdaq Composite 7.2%, KLSE 1.6%, KRE Regional Banks 4.7%, KSE 11.6%, KOSPI 1.9%, FTSE 250 2.3%, S&P MidCap 400 4.9%, Mexico 2.5%, Nasdaq Biotech 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 6.8%, Oslo 4%, Copenhagen 4%, Helsinki 3.4%, Stockholm 3.9%, PX 2.1%, SENSEX 3.6%, SMI 2.1%, SOX 10.2%, IGPA 1.9%, S&P 500 5.3%, Nasdaq Transports 7%, TSX 2.4%, Vietnam 2.7%, ASX 200 1.4%, ASX Materials 2.6%, ASX Industrials 1.*%, BIST 3%, IBB 3.9% and Nasdaq Biotechs 3.4%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Richards Bay Coal (1.6%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.8%), Cotton (2,6%), Arabica Coffee 5.7%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Natural Gas (12.2%), Palladium (2.2%), Robusta Coffee (6.9%), Sugar (1.5%), Rubber (1.7%), Silver (1.3%), Gold in AUD (3.5%), Gold in CAD (3.5%), Gold in CHF (2.9%), Gold in EUR (3%), Gold in GBP (3.5%), Gold in USD (3.8%), Gold in ZAR (4.6%) and Corn fell 1.4%.
May 18, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 17, 2025 Leave a comment
Just for sport, since the April 7th, 2025 low seen across various equity markets,
Australia’s ASX 200 hasn’t kept up with the bounce.
I’ve place a sample on the study below.
Italy’s MIB and the Nasdaq Composite have soared 24% over the past 6 weeks.
Sweden’s OMX and the S&P 500 have climbed 17%,
while the ASX 200 and the FTSE 100 rose 13% over the same time.
What is notable is the difference between the 24% and 13% performance is more than an adequate year’s return in its own right.
May 17, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 16, 2025 Leave a comment
Over the past 2 weeks of investor presentations, the overwhelming question I was asked was “do you think we’ll get a rate cut”?
It doesn’t matter whether that question was postured towards the American or the Australian market.
The sub title of my blog is “Trying to hear what’s not being said”.
Depending on the questioners predicament, what they are saying is either;
1) We need more interest rate relief because we haven’t reduced our debt over the past 4 years.
or
2) Stock market gains of 50% over the past 2 years are not what they seem because we bought stocks at the high end of the pendulum and need a little pop so we can break-even.
And so I ask myself, why are people needing an interest rate cut?
The cost of money is not expensive.
May 16, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 13, 2025 Leave a comment
It’s good enough and more than adequate.
On April 7th, 2025, I wrote a few notes along with a newsletter sharing my view about an acute buying moment for equities.
This note (from the same day)… related the extremes lows to an opportunity in the Nasdaq 100.
https://robzdravevski.com/2025/04/07/use-data-ignore-the-noise/
5 weeks later, the Nasdaq 100 has risen 26%.
I’d say that is good enough and more than done.
Even though 26% represents more than 2 years worth of adequate return within 5 weeks…..many won’t take any profit.
Maybe some should and take the rest of the year ‘off’,
but they won’t,
for they will ‘stay at the table’ and give up 8% of those returns,
while trying to recoup that 8% of ‘give back’,
they’ll see another 5% erode away,
and now with ‘only’ a 13% return, they plug away until the total return halves and they are left with 7% and now determined to ‘teach’ the market a lesson.
May 13, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 