Trying to hear what's not being said
July 7, 2025 Leave a comment
ASX listed Gold Mining company, Evolution Gold was the ‘mystery’ stock mentioned in the linked article.
A month on, gravity it taking hold on EVN.AX stock price.
We are seeing commensurate price action in another listed peer, being Northern Star Resources.
Observe the longer term mean lurking below.
July 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 6, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Platinum
Richards Bay Coal
COP/USD
Shanghai Composite *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Urea (U.S. gulf prices)
CHF/USD *
CHF/JPY
EUR/USD *
GBP/USD
Toronto’s TSX Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Pakistan’s KSE Index
South Korea’s KOSPI *
And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread
Arabica Coffee *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. (DXY) Index *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
Robusta Coffee *
CAD/CHF *
CAD/EUR *
HKD/USD *
USD/CHF *
USD/DKK *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mixed.
Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bonds yield has fallen for 6 straight weeks.
China’s 10 year yields have declined for 5 weeks.
Norwegian 10’s are in a 4 week losing streak.
Last week’s bond yield spreads are no longer in todays list.
And the U.S. 2 year bond yields have reverted to a longer term mean reversion.
Equities had another good week.
Hong Kong based indices were the few which were lower.
Toronto’s TSX joins the Shanghai Composite in overbought territory.
The former has risen for 11 of the past 13 weeks.
South Korea’s KOSPI broke its 5 straight weeks of advance.
The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 6 week winning streak.
Thailand’s SET index moved out from oversold territory.
Commodities were mixed, again, again, but plenty of streaks are developing.
Oils and Distillates along with Oats, Wheat, Soybeans and Precious Metals were the notable gainers.
Shipping Rates, Cocoa, Coffee, Gases, OrangeJuice and Rice dominated the losers category.
Tin broke its 4 week winning streak.
Lean Hogs broke its 5 weeks of advance.
Urea has climbed for 4 weeks and appears in this weeks overbought list.
Aluminium is in a 5 week winning streak.
Platinum has risen for 6 weeks straight.
Orange Juice has fallen or 5 weeks.
Sugar is in a 8 week losing streak.
Arabica is in a 4 week losing streak.
And Robusta Coffee rose and broke its 9 consecutive weeks of losses.
Currencies were active, again.
The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index continues to appear in oversold territory.
And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme readings this week.
A new entrant is the Colombian Peso being overbought against the USD.
The Aussie and Loonie were subdued and mixed again.
Sterling and the USD were both weaker.
The AUD/EUR is in a 4 week losing streak.
Brazil’s Real is in a 5 week winning streak vs the USD.
The Euro has climbed for 6 weeks vs the Yen.
CAD/CHF is in a 4 week losing streak.
CHF/JPY has risen for 6 weeks.
And the Chinese Yuan has strengthened against the USD for 5 straight weeks.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Brent Crude 3%, WTI Crude 2.3%, Heating Oil 1.7%, Newcastle Coal 1.7%, Platinum 1.8%, Gasoline 2.4%, Shanghai Rebar 1.9%, Urea U.S. gulf prices 2.5%, Gasoil 10.4%, Silver in AUD 2.3%, Silver in USD 2.6%, Corn 2.1%, Oats 6.2%, Soybeans 2.4%, Wheat 3%, CSI 300 1.5%, KBW Banks 4.8%, BUX 1.7%, China A50 2.3%, DJ Industrials 2.3%, DJ Transports 3.6%, IBB biotech ETF 2.8%, BOVESPA 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.3%, Russell 2000 3.5%, Nasdaq Composite 1.6%, KRE Regional Banks 6.4%, KSE 6.1%, S&P MidCap 2.8%, NBI biotech ETF 3%, Nasdaq 100 1.5%, OBX 1.5%, SET 3.5%, SOX 1.8%, S&P 500 1.7%, TA35 4.4%, Nasdaq Transports 3.2%, XBI biotech ETF 2.7%, BIST 9.3% and ASX Materials Index rose 2.9%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Baltic Dry Index (5.6%), Cocoa (9.2%), Lean Hogs (4.7%), Arabica Coffee (4.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (1.8%), Natural Gas (8.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Sugar (2%), Uranium (2.1%), Rice (3.9%), HSCEI (1.8%) and the Hang Seng fell 1.5%.
July 6, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 6, 2025 Leave a comment
Keep Calm and Carry On.
The U.S. ISM Purchasing Managers Index is not yet telling me to reduce allocations to equities.
July 6, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 6, 2025 Leave a comment
The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index is registering some oversold extremes and so many reciprocal currency pairs are overbought and reaching their momentary peaks.
The Aussie Dollar is close to doing the same.
That John Deere tractor should be a little more cheaper than it was 5 months ago and it’s nearly time to sell AUD and Buy USD if you need to pay for that new helicopter.
July 5, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 4, 2025 Leave a comment
The recent 30% run in Platinum has reached a point of needing a rest.
July 4, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
July 3, 2025 Leave a comment
The attached study shows 8 moments over the past 50 years when the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has registered certain metrics which has an impact on commodity prices and bond yields.
While the U.S. Dollar weakened enough to reach some weekly extremes, on a Monthly basis, it has a little more to go.
July 3, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 30, 2025 Leave a comment
The opening sentence in my recent presentations has been;
“I don’t see any broader structural problems with equities”.
The attached study highlights the 12th moment in 35 years when the Copper/Gold Ratio registered a Monthly extreme which suggests a further advance in the S&P 500.
June 30, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 29, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Palladium
Uranium
Shanghai Composite
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread
CHF/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Platinum *
KOSPI *
And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Arabica Coffee *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. (DXY) Index
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
CAD/CHF
CAD/EUR
HKD/USD *
USD/CHF
USD/DKK
And Thailand’s SET equity index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Robusta Coffee *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields generally fell, again, again….
Except for Japanese yields where the 5’s and 10’s broke their 4 week falling streak.
High Yield Corporates are nearing oversold territory.
U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be a maximum bullishness.
Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
The Chinese 10’s have done so for 4 weeks.
U.S. 2 year bond yields are near longer term mean reversion,
While the U.S. 3 year yields already did so.
Equities were had a good week.
Asian indices fared well with the Shanghai Composite registering an overbought reading.
South Korea’s KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks.
The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 4 week winning streak.
Norway’s OMX broke its 4 week winning streak.
Indonesias IDX broke its 4 week losing streak.
Thailand’s SET index broke it 6 consecutive weeks of losses.
Commodities were mixed, again.
Oils, Distillates and Gases dominated the losers, along with the Softs.
The Copper/Gold Ratio rose notably which aligned with the ‘rick-on’ appetite seen in equities.
The Baltic Dry Index fell 10% and 24% over the past fortnight.
Gold prices fell and as such Gold Volatility mean reverted.
Tin looks like its set for a higher move as it registers a 4 week winning streak.
Platinum has also risen for 4 week straight, advancing 25% during that time.
Robusta Coffee has sunk for 9 consecutive weeks.
And Sugar is in a 7 week losing streak.
Currencies were active.
The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index appearing in oversold territory.
And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme treading this week.
The Aussie was mixed. It was weaker versus the Europeans and stronger in Asia and the USD.
Brazil’s Real is in a 4 week winning streak vs the USD.
The Loonie was mostly weaker with the CAD/EUR in a 4 week losing streak.
The Swissie was stronger and the CHF/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.
EUR/JPY has climbed for 5 straight weeks.
GBP was stronger.
Yen was mixed.
PHP/USD broke its 4 week losing streak
And the USD/INR broke its 4 week winning streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 1.7%, Cocoa 9.2%, Cotton 3,9%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 1.7%, Tin 3.3%, Nickel 1.5%, Palladium 9.2%, Platinum 5.8%, Uranium 2.5%, Oats 2.7%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.8%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks Index 5.6%, DAX 2.9%, Dj Industrials 3.9%, DJ Transports 4.9%, Egypt 9.1%, FCATC Index 4.5%, HSCEI 2.8%, Hang Seng 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3%, TAIEX 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.3%, KLSE 1.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 3.6% FTSE 250 2.7%, Mexico 2%, S&P MidCap 400 2.6%, Nasdaq 100 4.2%, Nikkei 225 4.6%, NIFTY 2.1%, Stockholm 2.4%, SENSEX 2%, SOX 6.4%, S&P 500 3.4%, STI 2.1%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, WIG 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.8%, ASX Materials 1.8%.
For reference, the ASX 200 rose 0.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.6%), Brent Crude (12.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.3%), Baltic Dry Index (10%), DXY Index (1.5%), Palm Oil (2.6%), Heating Oil (10.5%), HRC (2.4%), JKM LNG (7.4%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (13,3%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Natural Gas (6.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Gasoline (10.4%), Robusta Coffee (2.2%), Sugar (1.8%), S&P GSCI (6.1%), CRB Index (4.,1%), Dutch TTF Gas (14.1%), Gasoil (11%), Gold in AUD (4%), Gold in CAD (3.2%), Gold in CHF (5.1%), Gold in EUR (4.4%), Gold in GBP (4.7%), Gold in USD (2.8%), Gold in ZAR (4%), Corn (2.8%), Rice (2%), Soybeans (3.4%), Wheat (7.3%), OBX (2.2%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.6%.
June 29, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 26, 2025 Leave a comment
The Euro is trading at a rare pricing extreme (according to my metrics and work) compared to the U.S. Dollar, seen for the 7th time in 25 years.
Inversely, the U.S. Dollar is at a monumental low against the EUR.
Europeans should be buying American assets, should they think their capital is either welcomed or will be treated well there…….
June 26, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 24, 2025 Leave a comment
In my May 23, 2025 edition of Macro Extremes, the GBP/USD was listed as trading at an overbought extreme.
So, I look for the British Pound to fall against the U.S. Dollar in the forthcoming months.
Until then, London real estate will be that little bit more expensive for U.S. Dollar buyers.
June 24, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
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