Seeing weakness in ASX 200

The bias for the ASX 200 is lower.

Combined with my other studies and analyses, it’s price action is filling me with conviction.

Much like the S&P 500 (as written in an earlier post today), the ASX 200 has been trend less over the past year.

While this post-mortem validates my opinion that it would be a stockpickers market, invariably this has also left passive, index huggers wondering why adequate returns haven’t been easy to come by.

In the price chart below, the ASX 200 is yet to break the high seen in late January 2023.

That high remains below the high registered almost 2 years ago, in August 2021.

Furthermore, the recent March 2023 low was lower than its January 2023 low.

And the recent peak of 7,391 was not higher than the early February 2023 high of 7,568.

So we have a series of lower highs and lower lows.

For a bunch of reasons, it’s not a market which suggests piling into.

Inversely, it’s not selling to short it either.

May 25, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au