Seeing weakness in ASX 200

The bias for the ASX 200 is lower.

Combined with my other studies and analyses, it’s price action is filling me with conviction.

Much like the S&P 500 (as written in an earlier post today), the ASX 200 has been trend less over the past year.

While this post-mortem validates my opinion that it would be a stockpickers market, invariably this has also left passive, index huggers wondering why adequate returns haven’t been easy to come by.

In the price chart below, the ASX 200 is yet to break the high seen in late January 2023.

That high remains below the high registered almost 2 years ago, in August 2021.

Furthermore, the recent March 2023 low was lower than its January 2023 low.

And the recent peak of 7,391 was not higher than the early February 2023 high of 7,568.

So we have a series of lower highs and lower lows.

For a bunch of reasons, it’s not a market which suggests piling into.

Inversely, it’s not selling to short it either.

May 25, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

The cratering in stock indices is afoot.

HSI and HSCEI today are doing so.

Opening gains in stocks are being given up as the past 2 days of trading is occurring.

Pessimism is growing amongst a host sentiment and survey indicators.

Really long term mean reversions are occurring or nearing.

Smaller investors seem jittery.

The AUD/USD is plunging. A visit to 0.6320 would be a 3 standard deviation event.

On September 9th, 2022, I wrote;

“I think prices will jump a little, drag in a few more people and then spit them out again in the coming week or three followed up with another swoon.”

And here we are…..

For a bit of sport, I think S&P 500 has a terrible day during Wednesday’s session and the Aussie market will give up its early gains then sink further on Thursday before traders swoop in and start buying 2 hours before Thursday close not before they dump the same stock into Friday’s close before their long weekend on the Australian east coast.

That’s the sort of market we have currently.

September 28, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Watching Currencies – AUD/JPY

Correlations – AUD/JPY and the ASX 200 Index

September 5, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

First day of September wipes out August

Below is a continuing chart I’ve been posting for a while to disprove the illusion that the Aussie equity market is NOT screaming to new highs.

For the past 3 months, the ASX 200 has been trading sideways and today’s headlines from the Australian Financial Review following todays close of business was…..

“ASX wipes out most of August gains in single session.
The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.8 per cent on the first day of September, falling back to where it traded on August 3”

It’s a bit sad that the first day of September’s trading erased the WHOLE month of August’s efforts.

In fact, the ASX 200 is trading back to where it was on June 3rd, 2020.

The age of the stock picker is back….

September 1, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.auASX 200 sideways

Looking for a 15% decline in ASX 200

Today, the ASX 200 closed at 6002.

I am watching if the index will trade lower to “fill” the following “gap-ups”,

5918, 5803, 5604, 5394, 5055 & 4701.

Those are declines of 1.4%, 3.3%, 6.6%, 10.1%, 15.8% & 21.7% respectively.

I’m betting on it trading closer to the 5,055 level.

20 July, 2020
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Neither a borrower nor a lender be

The genius of James Packer continues.

Crown Resorts is a BBB rated company and they have raised $600 million in debt through the public markets at 4% above the bank bill rate, which means currently the total coupon will be 6.27% range.

The paper matures in 2075 but Crown can redeem them in 2021. Lenders own debt which is subordinated. They will rank below preference share holders and other capital market debt but above ordinary shareholders. The money is going to be used to finance projects within Crown Sydney & Crown Towers Perth.

So what they have achieved is to reap a stack of long dated capital at a cheap price without the onerous banking liens and it was raised easily because investors are simply chasing any yield.

Investors should consider not whether they are being “paid” enough to take this risk as a lender but whether they have considered the risk/return (even the risk of underperformance) of owning the shares of Crown Resorts rather than its debt would a better proposition. I’m not writing about Crown’s risk or ability to pay its coupon or return your capital but whether the herd has simply filed into another hybrid income product without thinking about it.

Think of it in terms of the return shareholders may receive as a rate of return over the cost of the capital once they complete the expansion of the various casino projects?

I forgot to say that James Packer’s family company, Consolidated Press Holdings (CPH), also bought $50 million of this debt. I’m sure this gave the new debt investors added confidence that he has backing it personally.

That’s fine, but CPH also owns at least $4 billion of Crown Resort shares.

Sometimes analysis is difficult and sometimes it can be simple.

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