More lower prices ahead for Urea

Privately, during 2022 I advised and guided various corporations to lower their input and modelling prices for any future Urea projects.

Publicly, I quipped and eluded to such warnings such as in this post.

In that January 2021 note, I carried on about parabolic price moves and pending mean reversions.

Back then, I wrote;

“I’m expecting more mean reversion and a $380-$420 price into 2023”The price of Urea peaked at $935 a year ago.

Today, the price of Middle East delivered Urea is at US$500……

and I think it’s going lower….

and my prediction of a visit to $420 still stands.

The effect of these price moves is that planned projects now seem unfeasible, financing may be withdrawn while with any deficit in development and production, we may see the price of Urea ultimately rise once we see my expected trough.

If I see such price action, it will also influence the share prices of nutrient or fertilizer companies along with grain growers and cereal buyers.

December 22, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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