Bitcoin reaches my predicted $16,000

On September 20, 2022, I wrote that Bitcoin should trade down to $16,000 (+/- 600 points)

A few days ago, on November 9th, Bitcoin saw a low of 15,512 (on Coinbase’s exchange)

While this low rendered it oversold on a daily basis, it is close but not yet oversold on a weekly timeline.

However, on a weekly basis it did trade down to 2.5 standard deviations of its rolling weekly mean and nearly tickled 3 standard deviations. We don’t see this occur too often.

Back to that September 20 article, I wrote that a drop in Bitcoin’s volatility readings precedes a low in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Volatility (BVOL) proceeded to drop from that date on (into November) and went oversold on a daily basis on October 14, 2022.

Bitcoin then saw this new, recent low on November 9th.

Incidentally, this week’s low in Bitcoin saw it register its lowest weekly RSI reading since November 2018, when Bitcoin was consolidating around the $6,200 mark.

Furthermore, that daily oversold moment for the Bitcoin Volatility Index was a day following what we now know as the S&P 500 low of 3,812 on October 13, 2022. While it wasn’t quite at my 3,656 prediction.

Perhaps that figure 3,656 level is visited later?

I don’t trade cryptocurrencies but I do watch the bellwethers to assist with risk appetite in other asset markets.

November 12, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

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