Trying to hear what's not being said
January 7, 2025 Leave a comment
British 30 year bond yields are in todays financial market news.
Much being said about their new highs being made.
It’s OK, they can float around here (+/- 1%).
They might be a little stretched but not at an extreme.
Same goes for #British 10’s.
January 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
#gilts
June 4, 2024 Leave a comment
I’m watching how the German 2 year bond yield tracks the Nasdaq 100 (or vice versa)
June 4, 2024
November 17, 2023 Leave a comment
I think U.S. 2 year bond yields will fall.
I also think that the Australian 2 year bond yields decline.
I think they respectively test (+/- 0.10%) these next levels;
Aussie 2’s
3.5%, 2.85% & 2.30%
U.S. 2’s
4.10%, 3.35% & 2.75%
The trick will be the timeframe, but I’m going to put it somewhere between the next 7 – 15 months.
If this eventuates, the recent decline in yields such as the U.S. 2’s only falling from 5.26% to their current 4.83%. is hardly newsworthy.
Moreover, I’m pondering all of the affects that such a move would have on other assets and businesses.
This note is reprising my October 30, 2023 comments doubting the calls for higher yields, lasting for longer.
November 17, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 4, 2023 Leave a comment
Here are the 10 notable moments over the past 50 years when the U.S. 10 year bond yield had entered Monthly overbought territory while also being at a certain percentage above its 50 month moving average and also trading up to 2 standard deviations above its rolling monthly mean.
And today many are still betting that yields rise (and bond prices fall)…..
October 4, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 21, 2023 Leave a comment
British 10 year government bond yields are seldom this distance above its 200 week moving average while simultaneously registering a weekly overbought reading.
Forgetting Bank of England policy rate setting, I can see these 10’s back down around 2.40% over the coming 9-15 months.
Demand destruction commensurate with decline in GDP will aide this thesis.
June 21, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 7, 2023 Leave a comment
With all the connotations and effects that come with bond buyers prevailing as the more aggressive, I see bond yields declining into the next year.
The figures in the chart below denote the percentage that the U.S. 2 year government bond yield is trading above its 50 month moving average.
Obviously, taking a larger view and trying to get the bigger call correct.
Allowing for convergence, I think this yield makes its way towards the 2.75% region in 12 months time.
It’s currently 4.43%
February 7, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 23, 2022 Leave a comment
U.S. 10 year bond yield are at ‘overbought extremes’.
At 2.41%, it’s kinda done or at the least, at the upper end of being so.
I’ll give a move to 2.6% (that downward sloping resistance line in the chart below) but I’ll say that you don’t want to be shorting bonds at these levels.
Beyond the subjective notion that short bonds is a crowded trade and the chart below showing a unison registration of a 70 RSI reading (it’s 12th visit in 30 years) with a 2.5 weekly standard deviation above the mean, my other work tells me that the 10’s are the most stretched since October 2018.
In fact, other than 2018 and now, we haven’t seen the 10’s this ‘stretched’ at any other time in 40 years of data.
Additionally, the U.S. 10 year bond yields have doubled in 8 months and quadrupled in 18 months.
If you think 2.4% is low compared to where we once came from, the quantum of this ‘recent’ move should count for something.
p.s. once again, tune in to the noise amongst the market pundits, chat rooms and the media again. ‘Today’s’ hyper-ventilation is now about falling bond market yields.
Similar to recent moments seen in Nickel, Oil, Crypto, Wheat, Chinese equities etc etc, consider the opposite side of what the crowd is crowing about.
It’s funny, I just can’t seem to remember ‘them’ saying anything when interest rates were 1%……
March 23, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#pendulum
rob zdravevski's blog 