Trying to hear what's not being said
November 29, 2023 Leave a comment
For the strategic asset allocators;
When the circles represent an overbought condition for CHF/AUD on a Monthly basis, the rectangles on the main chart indicate an opportune moments for accumulating equities.
In this scenario, the S&P 500 is represented by the orange line.
November 29, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 29, 2023 Leave a comment
The attached study was first published in June 2023.
It highlighted the moment when the VIX registered a certain RSI level in late November 2022.
12 months on, the S&P 500 has climbed 15% up the wall of worry that I allude to in the graphic below.
Recently, the VIX weekly RSI did not trade above 64 and it’s approaching 38 again.
The actual VIX Index is now at its lowest point since mid-January 2020.
The is little volatility present.
Others may suggest complacency and imply the buying of insurance is cheaper…..my work suggests that there is life in this S&P 500 advance,
but in the short-term, it’ll be in timing when to add or allocate.
November 29, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 25, 2022 Leave a comment
In early July 2022, the Copper/Gold Ratio registered its 7th weekly oversold reading within 12 years.
This occasion coincides with a notable low, or at least safer, longer term buying opportunity in stocks…..or as the chart below implies, in the S&P 500 Index.
In other posts I have mentioned how the monitoring of this ratio is also helpful in tracking the direction of interest rates.
In the meantime, I’ll watch if the Copper/Gold ratio re-visits the oversold region in the coming 3-8 weeks.
September 25, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 20, 2022 Leave a comment
The vertical lines show the significance when the Japanese 10 year bond yield is (on a weekly chart) simultaneously OVERSOLD and trading 2.5 standard deviations and BELOW its rolling weekly mean.
Around the same time, the S&P 500 also registers a notable low.
There have been 9 such moments over the past 15 years when probability suggests nibbling and adding to your holdings.
BoJ and Fed news this week will be helpful shaping the JGB yield but this study suggests the S&P 500 low isn’t there yet. This doesn’t necessarily mean a lower low, but rather a ‘notable’ low.
September 20, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 20, 2022 Leave a comment
Bitcoin’s price action, trend and sentiment suggests it tests somewhere around the US$16,000 mark. +/- $600.
A drop in Bitcoin’s 30 day volatility precedes a trough in the price of BTC/USD which precedes ‘one more decline’ in the S&P 500 before itself finds a floor.
This would put my S&P 500 target around 3,645.
A bottoming process which builds into a rally in these two markets would cause much damage to all those huddled on the other side of the boat.
p.s. The direction Bitcoin also has reasonably good correlation with the Australian Dollar and commodity prices.
September 20, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
September 10, 2021 Leave a comment
I’m watching the Copper/Gold Ratio (HG/GC)
Its direction tells me about the health of the economy.
The direction of the HG/GC also helps confirm the direction of interest rates. More specifically, the U.S. government 10 year bond yield.
In the chart below, I’ve overlaid a price chart (in blue) of the S&P 500 against the HG/GC.
You can see that the general direction of both the SPX and the HG/GC follow each other.
At this moment, the HG/GC is nearing a point where it breaks either way.
We’ll need to wait and watch in the coming week or so.
In my earlier post today, I imply that interest rates may rise.
This, then suggests that the HG/GC breaks higher (meaning Copper rises and Gold declines) which translate into the S&P 500 rising further.
A ‘melt-up’ in the S&P 500 is not a perverse idea, especially against the grain of many who are calling the top, let alone a crash.
It may seem odd to think, but markets often move to where they can do the most damage…..
and going higher can damage those who have been on the sidelines or sold up recently.
Missing out can also hurt investors.
September 10, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au.
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