Trying to hear what's not being said
September 12, 2025 Leave a comment
Amidst the hootin’ and a hollerin’ about the Gold price…..
here is the Gold price in Canadian Dollars…..
and when it trades at its upper 3 standard deviation point, it goes sideways to lower for a period of time afterwards.
September 11, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 20, 2025 Leave a comment
The attached study shows extreme moments in the Monthly pricing of Canadian listed, Pan American Silver Corp and I’ve overlaid the Silver price in CAD.
March 20, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 20, 2024 Leave a comment
From its recent peak, Gold Mining related ETF’s such as the U.S. listed GDXJ have declined 20%. It was very noisy at the recent high when words such as ‘momentum’ & ‘breakouts’ where being touted.
Today, the price action isn’t looking any better.
December 20, 2024
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 30, 2024 Leave a comment
For buyers of buying gold related equities at current levels, probability isn’t stacked your way.
“They” are closer to being a sell, than a buy.
If expressed in the form of the GDXJ (Van Eck Junior Gold Miners ETF), I think I’ll be able to buy it 25% cheaper than todays $42.67.
And be careful of historical charts showing where prices “once came from” and phrases such as ‘breakouts’ and “resistance lines”, whether its monthly or weekly or daily or hourly………
Caveat Emptor!
April 30, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 19, 2024 Leave a comment
The run in Copper has been seen and it may be full, for the time being.
On July 18, 2022 (20 months ago), I signalled a long trade in Copper expressed through the shares of #Sandfire Resources (SFR.ASX).
Since then, #SFR‘s stock price has risen from $3.75 to its current level of $8.54.
The ‘fat part of the trade’ has been seen.
Today’s price suggests a stock price which is trading at the upper end of its extremes.
On a weekly basis, SFR.ASX is overbought, trading at 2.5 standard deviations above its weekly mean and it’s at a stretched percentage above its 200 week moving average.
The hubbub around the copper price (and related companies) paints a similar picture, while I specifically think there is a bull trap in #HG1!
In corporate finance land, this is a time when its advisable for copper related companies to conduct a capital raising (new share issuance) to either reduce debt or fund capital expenditures plans or perhaps use your (improved) currency, name your shares to make an acquisition.
March 19, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 29, 2023 Leave a comment
Readers can search ‘silver’ on my blog for a trail of my calls made.
In January 2023, I said A$34 was OK and $38 would be a ceiling.
Since that note in January 2023, AUD Silver traded from A$34 to A$31 and then had a run higher (along with other precious metals) but only to a high of A$38.50.
Indeed, $38 is or was a ceiling, especially when coupled with the recent fervour from the Gold and Silver bugs.
Incidentally, I also wrote about selling AUD Gold exposure in late March, 2023.
Since that note (2 months ago), Gold in AUD hasn’t made any headway while USD Gold has declined 6% from its peak.
And in mid/late April 2023, I highlighted Platinum’s run……It has since fallen 6%.
Today, I have no interest in holding any precious metals.
Sadly, someone bought Newcrest Mining at A$30.00 per share in amongst this hubbub, to only see the stock now trading at A$26.00 and subject to the prospects of acquirer Newmont’s stock price.
May 29, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 19, 2023 Leave a comment
My July 25, 2022 note alerted readers that Silver, as priced in Australian Dollars, was triggering a weekly Oversold signal.
That day, was the low.
Silver was bought at A$26.93. The secondary buying level of $25.40 wasn’t touched.
Today, Silver in AUD is trading at A$33.92
I’d say that a 26% advance for a precious metal within 6 months is quite an adequate return.
(incidentally, AUD Gold rose 12% over the same time)
Whilst it’s still in a bullish trend, I think it is nearing the end of this advance.
I wouldn’t be initiating a new ‘long’, instead I’m in the mode to sell.
I’m seeing Silver becoming tired and a ceiling around the A$38.00 mark.
I may not wait for $38.
If AUD Silver can’t break $37.08, then probability when coupled with current, near term resistance lines suggests that a new extended, upward leg in AUD priced Silver is low or a marginal (and dangerous) bet for those initiating ’new longs’ from here.
January 19, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 25, 2021 Leave a comment
Here are my current squiggles about Silver, as I watch whether it breaks higher.
The call is for higher prices but I need it to close above $25.07 to solidify the bullish trend from a daily to a weekly basis.
New, long money should watch this resistance and it’s prudent to wait for the break.
October 25, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
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