Trying to hear what's not being said
September 14, 2024 Leave a comment
RBOB Gasoline prices have converged to its 200 week moving average.
It’s been a while since it has danced around there.
It is also closing in registering a weekly oversold reading.
That was last seen 4 years ago.
September 14, 2024
September 5, 2024 Leave a comment
A call that I’m not hearing much about it for lower #oil prices.
My historical posts have called for WTI Crude to around an initial visit to $64, and failing that $46-$48.
I think the probability for the latter is gaining.
Today, WTI Crude is $69.40.
A $46 price in WTI #Crude correlate with lower Nat Gas prices and the share prices of related petro/hydro chemical companies.
As an example, that may translate to seeing the trading of stock prices in companies such as #Woodside (WDS.AX) at A$19, #BP at 333p and #Occidental (OXY.N) <US$38.
September 5, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 4, 2024 Leave a comment
WTI Crude Oil ain’t $80 anymore. It’s now $73.
In my note from mid-May, I opine that oil prices see $64 and perhaps $46.
June 4, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
Karri Asset Advisors
rob@karriasset.com.au
May 14, 2024 Leave a comment
I haven’t seen any compelling investment opportunity in Crude Oil (or any related equites) over the past 2 years.
I’ve been comfortable with that view as the price of #Oil has mostly traded sideways over that time.
Digestion has been the prevailing trend amongst oil and gas equities.
I’d like to see WTI #CrudeOil trade down to the $64 range before being interested.
At $46, it would become compelling.
This would translate to the share price in Australian energy company, Woodside Energy trading down to $19.65. (it’s currently $28.20)
……and then I ponder the related correlations in currencies etc.
May 14, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 15, 2024 Leave a comment
The former #Shell CEO thinks the #SHEL stock price is ‘massively undervalued’.
https://www.ft.com/content/b9d3c147-b74c-470c-b9c7-9cba55efd38a
No it’s not.
See you somewhere around at GBP 21.70, later in the year.
April 15, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 15, 2024 Leave a comment
My December 4, 2023 note wrote of my expectation that WTI Crude Oil price (then $75) would trade down to $70 within a 10 day period.
It soon did.
My long position at that $70 entry price remains light and participatory.
While the strength of the downward trend wanes, it does remain intact, thus requiring respect.
The current price action in Oil is dependant on whether it makes ‘higher highs’ or ‘lower lows’.
January 15, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 7, 2023 Leave a comment
WTI Crude Oil saw the $70 target within 3 days.
This post link alluded to seeing it within “next 10 days”.
The price is now $69.20, at the time of writing.
Now, I’m thinking the next move for WTI Crude Oil is towards $67.80 – $65.90 area, which may be seen quickly, perhaps the end of Monday’s U.S. trading session.
My buying interest is heightened.
Interestingly, WTI Crude Oil prices are in their 7th consecutive week of declines and now I don’t see any geopolitical risk premium.
December 7, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 7, 2023 Leave a comment
I think that energy prices are in the latter part of the larger mean reversion that I have been waiting to play out.
While Crude Oil, Gasoline, Diesel and Heating Oil prices look like having more downside and are confirming downward trends, my posture, at this end of the pendulum is being a buyer rather than ‘shorting’.
On a daily trading basis, Henry Hub Natural Gas is my nearest buying candidate.
Following today’s 5% decline (currently trading at $2.57), whether it tickles the $2.47 region is myopic. It has fully retraced the 45% advance which commenced in September 2023 along with ‘backing and filling’ a large gap.
Although, this may be a short-term trade where I scalp some returns, while I keep in mind that $2.10 could be seen if certain trend indicators exhibit strength.
But I am in a broader territory where I’m a longer-term accumulator.
December 7, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
December 4, 2023 Leave a comment
WTI Crude is ‘looseley’ trading 15% below the price it saw on the first trading day following Hamas’ attack on Israel.
And Brent Crude is doing a similar thing.
While my previous writings have re-iterated the peril of ‘trading the headlines’, for those euphoric and momentum buyers of Crude Oil are wearing some pain.
An announced OPEC+ production cut has provided oil price with any interim support. Possibly another headline traded by many.
I’m looking for a WTI Crude price to visit the $70 mark before possible buy orders are placed.
While that is 5% below the current $73.70 price, it could see that level within the next 10 days.
December 4, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
October 6, 2023 Leave a comment
The study below shows the percentage that the WTI Crude Oil price was trading above its 200 week moving average.
When combined with my other studies and metrics, (albeit I couldn’t predict this week’s 10% decline) the probability of the oil price embarking on an extended advance was waning.
More so (subjectively observed), when the financial media noise increased surrounding the various analysts saying $100 was inevitable.
This coincides with my note written 2 weeks earlier.
The high was $95, it is now $82, may see you at $73.10.
Better yet, we may see much cheaper shares in energy companies.
October 6, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 