Trying to hear what's not being said
February 27, 2025 Leave a comment
The attached study shows the weekly stock price of Australian mining company, IGO Group and the percentage extremes it has traded either side of its 200 week moving average.
February 7, 2025 Leave a comment
While much damage has been done to the Nickel price, I think there is a little a more lower travel ahead before dearth of supply meets an apathy of interest.
At the time of writing the price of LME (forward month) Nickel futures are trading at US$15,623.
February 7, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 25, 2024 Leave a comment
In mid-November 2023, this note implied ‘it’s not too late to buy Nickel’ when it was trading at $16,781.
On April 20, 2024, when Nickel was trading at $19,224, I wrote a note about preparing to ‘sell Nickel’ suggesting that it’ll reach somewhere around $22,075.
In mid-May, 5 months and 30% later, Nickel traded within 2.5% of that figure (at $21,500)……close enough.
It was true that Nickel’s upward trend was not exhibiting any strength.
Today, one month since that peak, the price of Nickel has declined 20% and is now trading at $17,140.
It is not giving me a buy signal yet.
June 25, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 21, 2024 Leave a comment
3 years I published a couple posts about IGO Group which is an Australian #lithium and #nickel mining company.
Today, I’m highlighting an extreme seen only 4 times in the past 14 years.
June 21, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#IGOGroup
April 25, 2024 Leave a comment
4 months ago, I posted this note about Anglo American
It was titled, “Bugger this, take me private”
Today, #AngloAmerican (AAL) has said it received a #takeover offer from #BHP.
#AAL is now 48% higher since that December 13, 2023 note.
M&A activity is increasing and in this case, it is easier to buy existing copper and nickel mines, rather than developing them. BHP would also get 85% ownership of De Beers Group (diamonds) too.
If this deal closes, they won’t exactly become ‘private’ but certainly eases the quarterly investor and analyst palaver for AAL management.
Although, it is early at this dance, it’s always possible that a privately held suitor emerges with buying interest that doesn’t require any de-merger of Anglo American’s divisions or business lines.
April 25, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
April 20, 2024 Leave a comment
I think LME Nickel can trade up to $22,075. At that point, it should be overbought. It doesn’t seem that the current upward trend has much steam.
During November 2023 and January 2024, Nickel prices appeared in my weekly edition of Macro Extremes when prices where between the $16,700 and $15,900 range.
Back then, Nickel was registering a weekly oversold reading and it was a signal to accumulate and establish positions.
When accumulating, allow for variance.
April 19, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 22, 2024 Leave a comment
Perhaps early but not too late to by #nickel ?
Tuning in to the headline and operational mining pessimism seen amongst Nickel producers (explorers have their own issues)……Nickel prices on the LME are trading at ‘extremes’.
February 23, 2024
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
November 16, 2023 Leave a comment
Readers of my weekly Macro Extremes newsletter may have noticed that the Nickel price is appearing in the Oversold category.
It doesn’t happen all that often.
And so how to position for this view may come in the form of owning Nickel mining producers, or those hoarding Nickel reserves, perhaps it’s an opportune for buyers of Nickel (stainless steel) to lower their input costs or just buy Nickel itself.
November 16, 2023
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
March 23, 2022 Leave a comment
Nickel on India’s MCX exchange was not suspended during the past 2 weeks, allowing for true price discovery.
Although the intra-day high touched INR 5,617 (nearly tripling in a matter of days), it has since fallen 63%.
What does this tell us?
Perhaps, the short squeeze was an anomaly?
Maybe, peace in Ukraine is near?
or Russia’s share of Nickel production isn’t that important?
Beyond this, my three main points are;
1) Someone buying 1 contract of Nickel at INR 5,617 isn’t representative of the where the ‘whole’ market is trading Nickel
2) These so called ‘blow-off’ tops isn’t the place to be ‘playing’ and
3) parabolic shapes are honoured (with great probability) by subsequent savage retracements.
March 23, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
August 19, 2021 Leave a comment
Here is the stock price of ASX listed, Independence Group (IGO:ASX)
(orange line)overlaid with the Nickel price. (blue line)
A fairly good correlation I’d say.
With Nickel flirting with weekly Overbought levels and exhibiting
a historical stretch above its 100 and 200 week moving averages,
mean reversion is calling.
IGO’s timing and strategy of using its stock to acquire fellow Nickel
miner, Western Areas is perfect.
In turn, IGO’s stock price has now broken below an important support level.
I’m looking for it to trade down to $7.67 by August 31, 2021.
August 19, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
#nickel #IGO
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