A similar picture only in another commodity

Nickel on India’s MCX exchange was not suspended during the past 2 weeks, allowing for true price discovery.

Although the intra-day high touched INR 5,617 (nearly tripling in a matter of days), it has since fallen 63%.

What does this tell us?

Perhaps, the short squeeze was an anomaly?

Maybe, peace in Ukraine is near?

or Russia’s share of Nickel production isn’t that important?

Beyond this, my three main points are;

1) Someone buying 1 contract of Nickel at INR 5,617 isn’t representative of the where the ‘whole’ market is trading Nickel

2) These so called ‘blow-off’ tops isn’t the place to be ‘playing’ and

3) parabolic shapes are honoured (with great probability) by subsequent savage retracements.

March 23, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au