Cooking with (Liquid Natural) Gas

August 16, 2023 Leave a comment

This post dated August 9, 2023, talked about the bullish price action I saw developing in LNG prices.

Bullish trend in LNG is developing

Since then, the Japanese Yen priced LNG contract has risen 37%.

Today, the U.S. traded (CME) LNG Japan Korea Marker “JKM” (Platts) futures contract jumped 34%.

Annoyingly, the Dutch TTF Gas contract has risen 42% over the past 13 trading days.

I say ‘annoying’ because I’d prefer prices to move in an orderly fashion. 

Prices are no longer trading at extremes and cautioned is required chasing such quick moves as there are gaps below which are often ‘backed and filled’.

August 16, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with ,

Gas prices halve, no surprise

October 18, 2022 Leave a comment

Who would’ve thought that Gas prices could go down, let alone halve.

Well, the Dutch TTF Gas price has as has the Japan Korea LNG Marker (JKM) price.

It may seem perverse that this can happen but not really to others.

Henry Hub Natural Gas has nearly halved from its $10 peak.

Well, its currently $6 and nearing that $5 call I made in this note;

A pullback in gas prices will affect stockmarkets

Market forces tend to fix extreme moves in prices.

October 18, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Gravity and the JKM LNG price

January 17, 2022 Leave a comment

The Japan Korea Marker (“JKM”) fell 25% last week of which 22% occurred on Friday alone.

It closed at $25.25.

I expect it to (and it’s trying to) retrace or mean revert that parabolic move seen through 2021.

$22.50 is now an important support level which represents a 62% retracement from the $6 trough seen in March 2021.

Ultimately, $15.20 would be a better place to rest once it has ‘blown-off’ that sharp rally.

In the weekly chart below, the rolling mean illustrated is a 200 week moving average.

That average currently reads $9.55, however I expect it to roll (sharply) higher in the coming months, in essence converging
to a point that may be close to the $15 level mentioned above.

So, what does this mean?

Sellers should have already been locking in their forward price over the past few months, while I also expect lower equity prices in LNG producers as JKM pulls back a little more.

So, patience is a virtue for buyers.
Wait for your price, Wait for your pitch.

n.b. The JKM price reflects the spot market value of cargoes delivered ex-ship into Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan.

January 17, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , ,