Macro Extremes (week ending July 5, 2024)

July 7, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year government bond yield spread

KOSPI

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Biodiesel *

Robusta Coffee

AUD/JPY

EUR/JPY

GBP/JPY *

USD/JPY

Netherlands AEX *

Hungary’s BUX *

Pakistan’s KSE *

Nasdaq Composite * 

Nasdaq 100 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

S&P 500 *

Turkiye’s BIST 100

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

NIFTY *

SENSEX *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Shanghai Composite Index

China’s CSI 300 Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Cotton

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Corn *

And the Chinese RMB *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields changed course and fell,

Except for the German, Swedish, Norwegian, Swiss and Polish 10’s, along with the Euro curve.

In fact, the Swiss 10’s yield broke their 4 consecutive weeks of decline. 

Furthermore, all of the bond yields and spreads which appeared last week are no longer so.

Against the yield trend, the Copper/Gold ratio bounced,

And the U.S. 2’s and 5’s yield had bearish outside reversal weeks.

Equities saw strength, again…..again….mostly !

For example, the Nasdaq Composite has risen for 10 out of the past 11 weeks, so much so to render it trading at 36% above its 200 week moving average.

China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks, while the KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks

Chile’s IGPA broke its 5 weeks of declines and Thailand’s SET broke its 6 week losing streak

Indonesia’s main index has climbed 8.2% over the past 3 weeks.

And the FTSE 250 and Vietnam’s VN Index both had bullish outside reversal weeks.

Commodities were mostly firmer, which is a change against the past weeks of weaker bias.

Coking Coal, Copper, Oil and Distillates, Tin, Precious Metals Orange Juice and Coffee featured amongst those who had a terrific week.

Gases, Urea, Rice and Lithium were the biggest losers for the week.

WTI Crude, Brent Crude, Heating Oil and Gasoline are in a 4 week winning streak.

Lean Hogs have slumped for 9 of the past 11 weeks, falling 14% over that time.

Lumber and Natural Gas (NG) prices have fallen for 4 consecutive weeks.  NG has posted a 26% loss during this streak.

The Copper/Gold Ratio bounced out of its 6 week losing streak.

Palladium has risen 15% over the past 3 weeks.

Soybeans and Wheat both broke their 5 straight weeks of declines.

Lumber has fallen for 11 weeks of the past 15 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 51 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

Many currencies no longer appearing in extreme categories.

The AUD has risen for 4 consecutive weeks against the JPY, EUR, CAD, SGD, THB and USD.

The CAD/AUD has fallen for 4 weeks, while the Loonie against the USD has climbed for 4 straight weeks.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY Index) fell 1%, breaking its 4 week winning streak.

The Euro was mixed

The British Pound was stronger in a week when the United Kingdom held a general election.

And the Yen was weak, again.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 7.6%, China Coking Coal 7.5%, WTI Crude Oil 2%, Copper 5.9%, Heating Oil 2.7%, Tin 3.3%, Newcastle Coal 2.8%, Orange Juice 4.9%, Palladium 6.3%, Platinum 3.2%, Robusta Coffee 4.3%, SPGSCI 1.5%, Brent Crude Oil 2.3%, Gasoil 2.8%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 7.1%, Gold in CAD and CHF 2.5%, Gold in USD 2.8%, Gold in ZAR 3.1%, Soybean 2.3%, Wheat 3%, All World ex USA 2.1%, ATX 2.8%, CAC 2.6%, Egypt 2.2%, MIB 2.5%, BOVESPA 1.9%, IDX 2.1%, Nasdaq Composite 3.5%, KOSPI 2.3%, FTSE 250 2.5%, Nasdaq 100 3.6%, Nikkei 225 3.4%, SOX 3.4%, S&P 500 2%, STI 2.3%, TAIEX 2.3%, Vietnam 3%, ASX Materials 3.3%, BIST 1.9% and Israel’s TA25 rose 2.1%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (4.1%), Cotton (2.4%), Lithium (3.6%), Natural Gas (10.8%), Dutch TTF Gas (4.1%),Urea U.S. Gulf (4.2%), Rice (5.4%), and the KRE Regional Banks Index fell 2.4%.

July 7, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 21, 2024)

June 23, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

AUD/EUR

GBP/EUR

ZAR/USD

KOSPI

NIFTY

SENSEX

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *

Biodiesel *

Robusta Coffee

GBP/JPY

PHP/USD

RMD/USD

AEX *

KSE *

S&P 500 *

BIST 100

and Taiwan’s TAEIX *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

USD/BRL

Nasdaq Composite *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Nasdaq 100 *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread *

Sweden 10 year government bond yield

Lean Hogs

AUD/ZAR

COP/USD

EUR/GBP

IDR/USD

MXN/USD

CAC Index

IBOV

Indonesia’s IDX *

MOEX

Phillipines PSE

Thailand’s SET *

And the ASX Materials Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chilean 2 year government bond yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

PHP/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

BRL/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, breaking short-term rising trends;

Except for Swiss, Spanish, British and Portuguese.

U.S. 5 & 10 year breakeven inflation rates bounced off their oversold lows.

And Chilean 2 year yields broke their 8 consecutive weeks of declines, In last week’s note, I commented that their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.

Equities saw strength, mostly.

Some extended their losing streaks to 5 consecutive weeks, among them being the CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, China A50, SET and Toronto’s TSX.

Chile has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

Austria’s ATX rose and broke its 4 week losing run.

Mexico and Helsinki also broke their respective streaks.

The TAIEX has soared 9.5% over the past 3 weeks.

While the ASX Materials Index has “meant reverted” in its 5 week decline.

Commodities were mixed, again, with a bias towards weakness.

The commodities indices won’t expressed it due to the positive skew weighting afforded to the Crude Oil weightings.

Shipping, Palladium, Platinum, Oils and Distillates were stronger.

Thermal and Coking Coal, Cocoa, Steel, Lumber, Grains and Gases were weaker.

Cocoa gave up 8% of its recent 37% advance seen over the previous 4 weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks as have Nickel prices.

Iron Ore, Soybeans and Wheat prices have fallen for 4 straight weeks.

Wheat has slumped 21% in 4 weeks, Oats have tanked 24% in the last 3 weeks.

Lean Hogs have declined for 8 of the past 9 weeks.

Lumber has fallen for 10 weeks of the past 13 weeks.

Robusta Coffee performed a bullish outside several week. 

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 49 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action, again and again.

The Aussie was higher, again except against the South African Rand.

The Euro was mixed.

The Yen is nearing an oversold reading against the AUD.

The USD has risen for 5 consecutive weeks against the Colombian Peso

The U.S. Dollar was mostly stronger.

And the CHF/AUD broke its 4 week rising streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Baltic Dry Index 2.5%, WTI Crude 3.4%, Palladium 2.9%, Platinum 3.9%, Gasoline 4.6%, Robusta Coffee 4.5%, Brent Crude 3%, Gasoil 2.8%, KBW Bank Index 1.6%, DAX 0.9%, DJ Industrials 1.5%, DJ Transports 2.1%, MIB 2%, IBOV 1.4%, IDX 3.6%, KRE Regional Banks 1.9%, KSE 2.7%, MCX 1.6%, South Africa 3.3%, TAIEX 3.3%, BIST 2.9% and ASX Small Caps 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;


Australian Coking Coal (3.2%), Cocoa (8.2%), China Coking Coal (3.1%), HRC (1.9%), JKM LNG  (2.3%), Lumber (9.1%), JKM LNG in Yen (2.5%), Newcastle Coal (2.5%), Natural Gas (6.1%), Shanghai Rebar (2%), Sugar (2.4%), Dutch TTF Gas (4%), Uranium (2.6%), Gold in ZAR (2.5%), Corn (3.3%), Oats (6.4%), Soybean (2.6%), Wheat (8.4%) and the Phillipines PSE Index fell 3.5%.

June 23, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending June 7, 2024)

June 9, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

AUD/ZAR

Dutch TTF Gas *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield 

Biodiesel *

Rubber *

AEX

KLSE 

and Taiwan’s TAEIX

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Robusta Coffee *

USD/MXN

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread *

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year government bond yield spread 

Heating Oil 

Iron Ore CFR China

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

BOVESPA 

Mexico

MOEX

And Thailand’s SET equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chilean 2 year government bond yield *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

PHP/USD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

BRL/USD

MXN/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mostly lower.

As a result, last week’s oversold entries are no longer.

The exception is the Brazilian 10’s are back being overbought.

Chilean 2 year yields have fallen for 7 consecutive weeks. Their oversold reading may lead the world in a trough in yields.

We saw a large decline in Japanese yields across the curve.

U.S. 10 year yield minus German 10 year yield spread is in a 8 week declining streak.

And the Copper/Gold ratio has fallen for the past 3 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

While may indices spent the week between +/- 0.5% – 0.8% from last weeks close. 

Budapest and Amsterdam are at all-time highs.

Several more indices dropped out of overbought territory, while a few traded to some overbought extremes.

S&P SmallCap 600, the Russell 2000, Tel Aviv 25 and Oslo performed a bearish outside reversal week.

And Switzerland’s SMI is nearing a overbought quinella. 

Commodities were mostly weaker, again.

Cocoa & Coffee all saw strength again.

Robusta Coffee and Cocoa have risen 23% and 31%, respectively over the past 3 weeks. 

Coal, Aluminium, Steel, Nickel and Copper were amongst the weakest performers for the week.

Copper has fallen 12% in the past 3 weeks.

Gasoline has fallen 5 of the past 6 weeks, as has Brent Crude Oil.

And Gold as priced in Swiss Francs has fallen 6% over the past 3 weeks.

Grains were weaker too.

Rubber & Biodiesel broke their 5 week winning streaks. 

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel fell, following last week’s outside bearish week.

Orange Juice has fallen 11%, nearly halving the 27% advance seen in the prior 5 weeks.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 47 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies continue to provide action. 

The Aussie was weaker and didn’t make a new high against the Yen.

AUD/INR, AUD/THB and the AUD/USD had outside bearish reversal weeks.

In keeping with general weakness amongst commodities, the Loonie was also weaker.

The GBP/AUD had a bullish outside reversal week.

The Yen rose and as a result the GBP/JPY broke its 4 week winning streak.

The USD was stronger.

PHP/USD is in a 5 week losing streak.

And the Mexican Peso fell 8% (against the USD) following its election result.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Cocoa 6.5%, Natural Gas 12.8%, Robusta Coffee 3.8%, Sugar 3.8%, Urea U.S. Gulf 2.6%, Urea Middle East 5.1%, Rice 2.8%, AEX 2.2%, Budapest 2.9%, HSCEI 1.8%, Hang Seng 1.6%, IDX 2%, Nasdaq 100 2.4%, KOSPI 3.3%, Nasdaq Biotech 2.3%, Nasdaq 100 2.5%, NIFTY 3.4%, Copenhagen 1.7%, SENSEX 3.7%, SMI 2.1%, SOX 3.2%, S&P 500 1.3%, TAEIX 3.2%, Vietnam 2.1%, ASX 200 2.1% and the ASX Industrials rose 1.9%.  

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (3.2%), Rotterdam Coal (8.8%), WTI Crude Oil (1.9%), Cotton (3%), Lean Hogs (1.9%), Copper (2.6%), HRC (4.3%), LNG in Yen (5.5%), Lithium (3.3%), Tin (3.1%), Newcastle Coal (7.6%), Nickel (8.8%), Orange Juice (3.1%), Platinum (6.8%), SPGSCI (1.6%), Iron Ore CFR China (8.5%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.3%), Brent Crude Oil (2.2%), Uranium (2.7%), Silver in AUD (3%), Silver USD (4%), Gold in CHF (2.1%), Oats (10.2%), Soybean (2.1%), Wheat (7.5%), KBW Banking Index (1.9%), Egypt (1.8%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.5%), Russell 2000 (2.2%), KRE Regional Banks (3.4%), KSE (2.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.1%), Mexico (4%), BIST (2.5%) and Tel Aviv 25 fell 1.7%.

June 9, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 24, 2024)

May 26, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio *

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Copper

JKM LNG in USD and JPY

Nickel *

Platinum *

Dutch TTF Gas

Wheat *

AUD/SGD

Helsinki *

South Africa 40

And the ASX Materials Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yield * 

Tin

AEX *

Austria’s ATX *

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Oslo *

Stockholm

TAEIX *

and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Nickel on MCX

Orange Juice

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread

CAD/EUR

CAD/GBP

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Lumber *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Sugar

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose, mostly.

It was another week of relative quiet action.

The Russian 10 year government bond yield isn’t overbought anymore.

And the U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate, mean reverted.

Equities were mainly weaker.

The Hang Seng Index and S&P Small Cap 600 aren’t overbought anymore.

Many other equity indices also dropped out of their overbought extremes.

The KBW Bank Index, Vietnam, CSI 300 and Shanghai Index all broke their weekly winning streaks.

The Nasdaq Composite, KLSE, FTSE 250, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and TAEIX have all put together a 5 week winning streak.

Pakistan’s KSE has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has risen 10% over the past 3 weeks.

Oslo is at an all-time high.

And the HSCEI and Indonesia’s IDX had a weekly outside bearish week. 

Commodities were mostly stronger.

Cotton, Coffee, JKM LNG, Cocoa and Wheat all had a good week.

Nickel as traded on India’s MCX makes a return to registering an overbought extreme.

Oil & Distillates, Copper,  Palladium, Platinum, Silver and Gold all saw weakness.

Tin returns to overbought territory.

Silver and Gold (in all currencies except the CHF) are no longer overbought. 

In fact, Gold performed a bearish outside reversal week.

Lean Hogs are in a 5 week losing streak.

Orange Juice has risen 27% over the past 3 weeks.

Soybeans are in a 5 week winning streak.

Cotton rose and broke its 11 week losing streak.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 45 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies saw some action during the week.

The British Pound was stronger and nearing extreme against the JPY and EUR.

The Yen was mostly weaker., 

The Aussie was weaker against all except the Thai Baht and South African Rand.

The Euro as mixed while the Loonie was weaker.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 2.4%, Cocoa 12.9%, Cotton 6.1%, JKM LNG 7%, Coffee 5.6%, JKM LNG in Yen 13.9%, Tin 2.7%, Nickel in MCX 4%, Orange Juice 6.3%, Robusta Coffee 10.6%, Corn 2.7%, Oats 3%, Wheat 7.1%, Egypt 4.1%, NIFTY 2%, SENSEX 2%, Chile 1.8% and the SOX rose 4.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (2.6%), WTI Crude Oil (2.3%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (5.9%), Heating Oil (2.8%), Nickel (4.1%), Palladium (4%), Platinum (4.7%), Gasoline (3.5%), Sugar (2.4%), Brent Crude Oil (2.1%), Gasoil (3.1%), Silver in AUD (2.7%), Silver in USD (3.6%), Gold in AUD (2.4%), Gold in CAD (3%), Gold in EUR (3.1%), Gold in GBP (3.6%), Gold in USD (3.3%), Rice (2.2%), Shanghai (2.1%), CSI 300 (2.1%), KBW Banks (2.3%), China A50 (2.6%), DJ Industrials (2.3%), DJ Transports (2.7%), MIB (2.6%), HSCEI (4.8%), Hang Seng (4.8%), BOVESPA (3%), IDX (3%), MOEX (3%), KRE Regional Banks (4.4%) and Mexico fel 3.8%.

And for some reference for Australian readers, the ASX 200 and ASX Small Caps fell 1.1%, the ASX Materials fell 1.5% while the ASX Industrials rose 0.9% for the week.

May 26, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 17, 2024)

May 19, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Copper/Gold Ratio

Nickel

Platinum

Wheat 

AUD/CAD

AUD/JPY

HKD/USD

Hang Seng Index *

S&P Small Cap 600

Helsinki *

And Switzerland’s SMI

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year government bond yield *

Japanese 2 and 5 year government bond yield * 

Silver in AUD

Gold in CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD *

AEX *

Austria’s ATX *

Budapest *

DAX *

MIB *

MOEX

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Oslo *

Russell 2000

South Africa 40 *

TAEIX *

TSX

FTSE 100

and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Copper *

Orange Juice

Silver in USD

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) *

Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Cotton

Lithium Hydroxide *

Lumber *

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *

Urea (Middle East)

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were lower.

Amongst the week’s relative quiet action, the Copper/Gold Ratio entered overbought terrority which tends to coincide with bonds yields peaking.

 

Equities were higher again.

The FTSE 100 switches places in oversold land with the FTSE 250.

The American Russell 2000 and S&P SmallCap 600 return to being overbought as has Toronto’s TSX.

Many European indices remain overbought as some of the China and Hong Kong indices.

The HSCEI and Hang Seng have both risen 19% in the past 4 weeks.

The All Word Developed (ex USA) Index is in a 4 week winning streak as it the Dow Jones Industrials and the Nasdaq Composite.

And Italys MIB made an all-time high.

Commodities were mostly stronger.

Coal, Cocoa, Lumber, Sugar, Oats and Grains were weaker.

Metals (Precious and Base), Gases, Oil, Coffee, Cattle and Orange Juice were stronger.

Platinum, Nickel and Orange Juice make a return visit to overbought territory.

Oats are no longer oversold as they broke their 5 week winning streak falling 11% for the week (whilst performing a weekly outside bearish reversal), giving up nearly half of their 26.5% return over that time.

Copper, Silver and Gold are overbought, while Hot Rolled Coil Steel, Lumber and Cotton and Lithium are in the oversold category. 

Lumber has tanked 22% over the past 8 weeks and Cotton has slumped for 11 consecutive weeks.

Most grains eased following 4 weeks of consecutive gains.

Over the past 3 weeks, Platinum has risen 17%.

The Baltic Dry Index fell 13%, giving up half of the 23% gain seen in the prior fortnight.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 44 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies saw some action during the week.

The AUD was stronger and as some pairs return to be ing overbought.

And interestingly, the CHF/AUD is nearing overbought territory.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.8%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.9%, WTI Crude Oil 2.3%, Copper 8.3%, Heating Oil 2.1%, JKM LNG 4.5%, Coffee 2.7%, Cattle 2.7%, JKM LNG in Yen 1.8%, Tin 2.4%, LME Aluminium 3.6%, Natural Gas 16.6%, Nickel 11.9%, Nickel on MCX 3.2%, Orange Juice 13.8%, Palladium 3%, Platinum 8.2%, Gasoline 2.7%, Robusta Coffee 2.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.5%, Silver in AUD 10.3%, Silver in USD 11.8%, Gold in CAD 1.9%, Gold in CHF 2.6%, Gold in USD 2.3%, ASX 200 1.7%, MIB 2.1%, HSCEI 3.2%, HSO 3.1%, IBEX 2%, IDX 2.5%, Russell 2000 1.9%, Nasdaq Composite 2.1%, KSE 3.1%, Nasdaq Biotech 2.4%, Nikkei 225 2.1%, Copenhagen 2.7%, SENSEX 1.7%, SMI 2.4%, SOX 3.6%, S&P 500 1.5%, TAEIX 2.7%, Vietnam 2.3%, ASX Materials 2.5% and BIST rose 4.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Australian Coking Coal (2.5%) Rotterdam Coal (1.8%), Baltic Dry Index (13.4%), Cocoa (17.4%), China Coking Coal (2.3%), Cotton (1.8%), Lean Hogs (1.9%), Lumber (1.7%), Sugar (6.1%), Corn (3.7%), Oats (11.1%), Rice (3.2%), Wheat (1.9%), Budapest (1.6%) and the ASX Industrials fell 1.8%.

May 19, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending May 3, 2024)

May 5, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

  • denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3, 5 & 10 year government bond yields *

Japanese 2 year government bond yield

South Korean 10 year government bond yield *

Copper/Gold Ratio

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate *

Newcastle Coal

Oats

AUD/IDR *

AUD/THB *

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) *

Hang Seng Index *

J’burg 40 

Singapore Straits Times Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year government bond yield 

AEX

Budapest

Malaysia’s KLSE *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

FTSE 250

and Turkiye’s BIST 100 *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Brazilian 10 year government bond yields 

Copper

Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

SHY

PHP/USD *

Dow Jones Transports *

And Indonesia’s IDX30 *

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Lithium Hydroxide

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Lumber

Urea

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields fell.

Many streaks were broken such as the 5 week winning streak in Canadian and South Korean 10’s along with all the yields across the British curve.

Chinese 10 year bond yields is no longer oversold as its yield rose.

Equities were mostly higher.

However, selected European bourses did see weakness.

China’s A50 Index and the U.S. KBW Bank Index have risen 7.5% and 5.2% respectively, over the past 3 weeks.

IBEX, MIB, & Stockholm’s OSX 30 aren’t overbought anymore.

The HSCEI and Hang Seng both rose 4.5% for the week, adding to last week’s 9% advance.

Furthermore, the Hang Seng and U.S. (KRE) Regional Banks Index are in a 3 week winning streak.

The SOX finished flat following last week’s stunning 10% rise.

Karachi broke its 6 week winning streak.

The Nasdaq Transports has declined for 5 consecutive weeks.

And Toronto’s TSX registered a bearish outside reversal week.

Commodities were mostly lower, again.

Weakness was seen in Cocoa, Coffee, Precious Metals, Oils and Distillates.

Strength was evident in Base Metals, Coal, Gases and Grains.

Some of the grains have strung 3 weeks of consecutive gains.

Aluminium, Tin & Nickel are not overbought anymore, nor is Cocoa, Coffee or Gold (in any currency).

Cocoa has fallen 31% in the past fortnight and has broken its overbought streak of 27 weeks.

While Australian Coking Coal isn’t oversold this week.

Robusta Coffee has fell 15% accounting for nearly half of the 39% rise seen in the prior 9 weeks.

Cotton has fallen for 8 consecutive weeks while Rubber has sunk for 6 weeks straight.

Iron Ore in a 5 week winning streak.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel performed a bearish weekly outside reversal.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 42 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies are providing stealth guidance for the health of various asset trends.

The big news was the strength in the Japanese Yen and it’s no longer at last weeks extremes.

The AUD rose against all except the Yen.

The Canadian Loonie fell while the Euro was mixed.

The British Pound fell with the exception of the USD pair.

The Thai Baht broke its 7 week losing streak against the USD.

And the USD/SEK registered a outside weekly bearish week.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 3.2%, Baltic Dry Index 9%, China Coking Coal 4.7%, Tin 2%, Newcastle Coal 5.8%, Natural Gas 11.4%, Platinum 4.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 5.5%, Uranium 5.5%, Corn 2.3%, Oats 7.9%, Soybeans 3.2%, China A50 2%, HSCEI 4.4%, Hang Seng 4.7%, Russell 2000 1.8%, KRE Regional Bank Index 3%, FTSE 250 1.7%, Nasdaq Biotechs 5.9%, Chile 2.6% and the BIST 100 rose 3.6%.

For reference, the S&P 500 rose 0.6% for the week.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (1.9%), Cocoa (23.1%), WTI Crude (6.9%), Cotton (3.5%), Lean Hogs (2%), Heating Oil (4.7%), Coffee (Arabica) (10.4%), Lumber (2.7%), Lithium (5.7%), Gasoline (6.9%), Coffee (Robusta) (14.7%), SPGSCI (3.8%), CRB Index (3.5%), Brent Crude Oil (6%), Gasoil (5.3%), Urea Middle East (2.1%), Silver in AUD (3.6%), Silver in USD (2.4%), Gold in AUD (2.7%), Gold in CHF (2.6%), Gold in EUR (2.2%), Gold in GBP (2%), Gold in ZAR (3%), CAC (1.6%), MIB (1.8%) and Spain’s IBEX fell 2.7%.

May 5, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 26, 2024)

April 28, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Australian 2, 3 & 5 year government bond yields 

Australian, Brazilian, Japanese, South Korean and U.S. 10 year government bond yield 

U.S. 20 year government bond yields 

TBT 

U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yield 

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate

Aluminium 

Tin

Nickel

AUD/IDR

AUD/THB

USD/BRL

HSCEI

Hang Seng

Singapore’s Strait Times

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Japanese 2 year government bond yield 

Cocoa

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD.

GBP/JPY

Italy’s MIB

Spain’s IBEX

OMX Stockholm 30

Turkiye’s BIST 100

Malaysia’s KLSE

And Pakistan’s KSE Index

The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Russian 10 year government bond yields 

Copper

Coffee (Arabica)

Coffee (Robusta)

AUD/JPY

EUR/JPY

USD/IDR

Extremes “below”the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Lumber

GBP/USD

PHP/USD

Dow Jones Transports

And Indonesia’s IDX30 

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Lithium Hydroxide

North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel

JPY/USD

The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Lumber

BRL/USD

IDR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

The host of spreads appearing in last week’s edition are no longer overbought.

Chilean 10’s broke their 6 week rising streak.

Canadian 10’s are in a 5 week winning streak. 

And across the curve, British yields have climbed for 5 straight weeks as have South Korean 10’s.

Equities (seeming against the grain) rebounded, recovering most of last week’s losses.

I think this move was commensurate with the weakness in the Japanese Yen, confirming the ‘risk-on’ mood.

China’s A50 Index and the U.S. KBW Bank Index have risen 5% in the past fortnight.

While many U.S. equity indices are no longer so, we still have some European entries and we are seeing Asian markets re-appear in the overbought extremes list.

Since the point of its overbought extreme, Egypt’s main index has slumped 18% over the past 7 weeks.

Inversely, the HSCEI and Hang Seng rose 9% for the week.

The former has risen 20% since its January 2024 oversold extremes. Remember all of that “China is uninvestible pessimism” a few months ago?

Stockholm is making a new all-time high.

The SOX posted a stunning 10% rise for the week.

The Russell 2000 rose 2.7% recovering the 2.8% decline it posted over the past 3 consecutive weeks, bouncing off its 200 week moving average.

The Nasdaq Transports has declined for 4 consecutive weeks, while Copenhagen OMX 25 and Switzerland’s SMI snapped their 4 week losing streak.

Commodities were mostly lower.

The CRB Index broke its 6 week winning streak.

We saw strength in base metals, softs and coals, again.

Silver fell. It’s not overbought this week and has closed at a 3 week low, last seen on April 4th.

Gold broke its 5 week weekly winning streak.

Weakness was also noted in Coal, Cocoa, Tin, Palladium, Platinum and Gases

Coffee and Wheat prices were amongst the largest gainers for the week, again. Robusta Coffee has risen 39% over the past 9 weeks, while Arabica Coffee prices run of 5 consecutive weeks of higher prices came to an end.

Cotton has fallen for 7 straight weeks, while Lumber, Tin and U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel prices all broke their 4 week declining streak.

The LNG JKM price (in Yen) declined 4% following a 20% rise in the preceding fortnight.

Cocoa has been overbought for 27 weeks, but it break its 9 week winning streak.

Still Cocoa remains more expensive than Copper. The latter has put together a 4 week winning streak and this week registers an overbought quinella.

Aluminium snapped its 8 week winning run. It rose 24% during that run. It fell 5% this past week.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 41 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory.

Currencies were generally boring for the week, except for the strength in the Aussie and the weakness in the Yen.

Sustained U.S. strength is also keeping many of the reciprocals in oversold territory for another week.

The CAD and EUR were mixed.

We are seeing weakness in a range of Asian currencies.

And the Brazilian Real (BRL) broke its 7 straight week losing streak against the USD and moves out oversold territory.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

WTI Crude Oil 2%, HRC 1.7%, Lumber 1.6%, Cattle 2.3%, Orange Juice 3.3%, Gasoline 2.3%, Robusta Coffee 7.8%, Oats 3.8%, Wheat 9.8%, AEX 2.6%, KBW Banks 2.6%, Budapest 3.1%, China A50 2%, DAX 2.4%, HSCEI 9.1%, Hang Seng 8.8%, IBEX 4%, S&P SmallCap 600 2.4%, Russell 2000 2.7%, Nasdaq Composite 4.2%, KLSE 1.8%, KRE Regional Banks 2.6%, KOSPI 2.5%, FTSE 250 2.2%, S&P MidCap 400 2.1%, Mexico 3.5%, Nasdaq Biotechs 1.7%, Nasdaq 100 4%, Nikkei 225 2.3%, Oslo 1.8%, Stockholm 2.2%, Philippines 2.9%, J’burg SA25 3%, SET 2.1%, SOX 10%, S&P 500 2.7%, STI 3.3%, TAIEX 3%, FTSE 3.1%, Vietnam 3% and BIST 100 rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Aluminium (4.5%), Rotterdam Coal (6.2%), Baltic Dry Index (10.3%), China Coke (2%), Cocoa (7.5%), Lean Hogs (2%), JKM LNG (1.7%), Arabica Coffee (3.4%), JKM LNG in Yen (4%), Tin (3.5%), Newcastle Coal (5.2%), Natural Gas (8.4%), Palladium (6.6%), Platinum (2.3%), Sugar (1.7%), Dutch TTF Gas (6%), Uranium (2.2%), Silver in AUD (6.8%), Silver in USD (5.1%), Gold in AUD (4%), Gold in CAD (2.8%), Gold in EUR (2.6%), Gold in GBP (3.2%), Gold in USD (2.3%), Gold in ZAR (3.9%), Egypt (8.5%), Indonesia (2.4%), Nasdaq Transports (2.8%) and ASX Industrials fell 1.6%.

April 28, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 19, 2024)

April 21, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations

U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yield 

Australian, Brazilian, Chilean, Japanese, South Korean and U.S. 10 year government bond yield 

Japanese 2 year government bond yields 

U.S. 7 year government bond yields 

U.S. 20 and 30 year government bond yields 

TBT

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate

Gold Volatility Index

Cocoa

Nickel

Overbought (RSI > 70)

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield 

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield 

Gold in CHF

CRB Index

Italy’s MIB

Russia’s MOEX 

And Pakistan’s KSE Index

The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Coffee (Arabica)

Coffee (Robusta)

Aluminium

Copper

Tin

Silver in AUD and USD

and Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR

Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

IEF

IEI 

SHY

TLT

Australia 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year yield

Urea (U.S. Gulf)

CAD/USD

GBP/USD

PHP/USD

DKK/USD

INR/USD

KRW/USD

SEK/USD

Dow Jones Transports

And Thailand’s SET Index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Chinese 10 year government bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Lithium Hydroxide

The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

Lumber

BRL/USD

IDR/USD

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

Chilean 10’s have risen for 6 consecutive weeks and have risen for 10 of the past 11.

Across the curve, British yields have climbed for 4 straight weeks as have South Korean and Japanese 10’s.

And Russian 10 year bond yields aren’t overbought anymore.

Equities broadly fell everywhere…..

with the exception of Chinese stocks and U.S. banks.

Impressively the Dow Jones Industrials were flat for the week.

The Russell 2000 has declined 2.8% for 3 consecutive weeks, enough to see it touch its 200 week moving average.

The DAX fallen for 3 straight weeks, while Copenhagen and Switzerland’s SMI have done so for 4 weeks.

Oslo broke its 7 week winning streak after last week’s posting of an outside bearish reversal.

And South Africa broke its 4 weeks winning streak.

Commodities were mixed.

We saw strength in base metals, softs and coals, again.

Weakness was seen in Oils, Lumber, Cotton, Soybeans, Sugar and the PGM’s.

Biodiesel and Brent Crude Oil isn’t overbought this week.

Gold, Aluminium, Copper, Coffee, Tin and Silver all appear in the overbought quinella column this week.

Gold’s weekly winning streak is at 5 while Silver has risen for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

Coffee prices were amongst the largest gainers for the week, again. Robusta Coffee has risen 31% over the past 8 weeks.

Cotton has fallen for 6 straight weeks, while Lumber’s declining streak is at 4 week.

Gasoline broke its 5 week winning streak.

The LNG JKM price (in Yen) has risen 20% over the past fortnight.

Cocoa has been overbought for 26 weeks, while putting together a recent 9 week winning streak.

Cocoa remains more expensive than Copper.

Aluminium has risen for 8 straight weeks, rising 24% over that time.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 40 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory, however it rose 8%.

Currencies are seeing continued action.

U.S. strength is keeping many reciprocals in oversold territory.

The AUD and the Yen were weaker.

The CAD was firmer as was the Euro.

And the BRL has fallen for 7 straight weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Australian Coking Coal 5.7%, Aluminium 10%, Baltic Dry Index 11%, Cocoa 9.4%, China Coking Coal 4.2%, Lean Hogs 2.5%, Copper 5.6%, Coffee 5.2%, JKM LNG in Yen 7.5%, Tin 3.5%, Newcastle Coal 6%, Nickel 9.5%, Robusta Coffee 4.7%, Shanghai Iron Ore 2.1%, Silver in AUD 3.6%, Silver in USD 2.9%, Gold in AUD 2.8%, Gold in EUR 1.9%, Gold in GBP 2.7%, Gold in USD 2.1%, Oats 2%, Rice 7.5%, Shanghai Composite 1.5%, CSI 300 1.9%, KBW Bank Index 2%, Chian A50 3.4% and Pakistan’s KRE Index rose 1.7%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

WTI Crude Oil (3.4%), Cotton (4.5%), Heating Oil (5.4%), Lumber (5.9%), Lithium (3.4%), Orange Juice (3.2%), Palladium (3.1%), Platinum (5.8%), Gasoline (3.3%), Biodiesel (2%), Sugar (3.5%), S&P GSCI (1.4%), Brent Crude Oil (3.3%), Gasoil (7%), Soybeans (2%), All World Developed ex USA (2.3%), AEX (2.7%), Budapest (3.3%), DJ Transports (2.7%), HSCEI (2.3%), Hang Seng (3%), IDX (4.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (1.2%), Russell 2000 (2.8%), Nasdaq Composite (5.5%), KOSPI (3.4%), FTSE 250 (1.7%), S&P MidCap 400 (2.2%), Nasdaq Biotech (3.1%), Nasdaq 100 (3.4%), Nikkei (6.2%), Nifty (1.7%), Oslo (2.5%), PSE (3.3%), J’burg 40 (2.7%), SET (4.6%), SOX (9.2%), Chile (2.9%), S&P 500 (3.1%), TAIEX (5.8%), FTSE 100 (1.3%), Vietnam (8%), ASX 200 (2.8%), ASX Materials (2.2%), ASX Industrials (2.9%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3.9%

April 21, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

Macro Extremes (week ending April 12, 2024)

April 14, 2024 Leave a comment

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

Extremes “above” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations

U.S. 5-7 year corporate bond yield 

Brazilian 10 year government bond yield 

Japanese 2 and 10 year government bond yields 

TBX

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 5 year inflation breakeven rate

U.S. 5 year government bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield

U.S. 2, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 20 year government bond yields 

U.S. 10 year government bond yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation breakeven rate

Bloomberg Commodity Index

U.S. Dollar Index

Gold Volatility Index

Copper

AUD/JPY

AUD/THB

COP/USD

Austria’s ATX

Russia’s MOEX

And India’s NIFTY 50

Overbought (RSI > 70)

Russian 10 year bond yield 

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus Australian 10 year bond yield 

U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year bond yield 

Aluminium

Cocoa

Biodiesel 

CRB Index

Brent Crude Oil 

Coffee (Robusta)

AEX

Budapest

Italy’s MIB

TAIEX

And Turkiye’s BIST 100

The Overbought Quinella – Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

U.S. 10 year bond yield minus German 10 year bond yield 

Coffee (Arabica)

Tin

Silver in AUD and USD

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD and ZAR

Pakistan’s KSE equity index

Extremes “below” the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

IEF

IEI 

SHY

Lumber

Urea (U.S. Gulf)

Oats

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

JPY/AUD

DKK/USD

HKD/USD

KRW/USD

SEK/USD

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Australia 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year yield

Chinese 10 year government bond yields

Australian Coking Coal

Chinese Coking Coal

Lithium Hydroxide

Shanghai Rebar

The Oversold Quinella – Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None 

Notes & Ideas:

My immediate suggestion is to compare last week’s edition to this one. Readers will note many changes.

It seemed as government bond yields rose, which is mostly true in Australia, USA, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand……

However, we also saw declining yields in Switzerland, Spain, Germany, France & China.

Last week, I wrote, “many yields are showing signs of breaking north of their recent sideways pattern”. This was certainly the case.

Bonds provided an equal amount of action this past week, with my spreads and bond ETF’s entering the list.

The big news in Equities was observing many indices leaving overbought territory as prices declined.

A few winner still managed to appear in this week’s list, albeit only several.

Oslo is in a 7 week winning streak, while Mexico’s main index broker its 4 week run of consecutive higher prices. The latter also posted an outside bearish reversal week.

Toronto’s TSX broke its 8 week winning streak and posted a bearish outside reversal week.

South Africa has risen for 4 weeks straight as has the TAIEX. The latter has climbed higher for 12 of the past 13 weeks.

And last week’s reference to those equity indices which posted bearish outside reversal week’s held true.

Commodities were mixed.

We saw strength in precious metals, base metals, softs and coals.

It is worthy to note that many commodities which appear in todays overbought section saw those extremes tickled earlier in the week, before easing off in the last couple days.

Iron Ore isn’t overbought.

Gold prices across various currencies remains overbought.

Interestingly, Platinum has risen 10% over the past 3 weeks while Gold’s advance (in USD) has been 8%.

Renewed media noise about the rise in oil, gold, silver and copper prices coincides with them trading at overbought extremes.

Coffee prices were amongst the largest gainers for the week, again. Robusta Coffee has risen 26% over the past 7 weeks.

While it remains oversold, China Coking broke is 7 week losing streak.

Rice broke its 6 week losing streak with a 7% rise, nearly halving the 15% decline seen during that declining trend.

Oats mostly recovered last week’s 7% decline. 

Cotton has fallen for 5 straight weeks, inversely, Gasoline has risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

Cocoa has been overbought for 25 weeks, while putting together a recent 7 week winning streak.

Aluminium has risen for 7 straight weeks, rising 14% over that time.

And Lithium Hydroxide has now spent 40 consecutive weeks in weekly oversold territory, however it rose 8%.

Currencies extended last week’s activity with U.S. strength sending many reciprocals into oversold territory.

The effect of a rising USD, rendered weakest in the AUD and many others.

In its own right, the CAD was stronger.

The Yen was stronger against all, except the USD.

The Euro was weaker against everyone.

The British Pound was mixed for the week, again.

The BRL has fallen for 6 straight weeks against the USD.

And the Kiwi broke its 6 weeks of consecutive versus the Aussie.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 1.7%, Rotterdam Coal 2.9%, Baltic Dry Index 6.2%, Cocoa 6.9%, Coffee 3.7%, JKM LNG in Yen 12.9%, Lithium 8.2%, Tin 15%, Newcastle Coal 2.7%, Orange Juice 2.6%, Palladium 5.2%, Platinum 6.5%, Shanghai Iron Ore 6.1%, Dutch TTF Gas 15.5%, Silver in AUD 3.3%, Silver in USD 1.4%, Gold in AUD 2.4%, Gold in USD 0.6%, Oats 6.1%, Rice 6.6%, Robusta Coffee 4.2%, KSE 2.8%, Oslo 1.8%, SET 1.5%, TAIEX 2%, FTSE 100 1.1%, Vietnam 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.9%, BIST 2% and the ASX Industrials rose 1.2%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

WTI Crude Oil (1.4%), Cotton (4.2%), Heating Oil (3.2%), Lumber (5.6%), Biodiesel (2.1%), Sugar (7%), Raw Sugar (1.7%), Urea U.S. Gulf (5.6%), Gasoil (2.7%), Urea Middle East (2.8%), Wheat (2%), Shanghai (1.6%), CSI 300 (2.6%), All Developed World ex USA (1.3%), KBW Bank Index (3.7%), China A50 (3%), DJ Industrials (2.7%), IBEX (2.1%), Indonesia (2.6%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.9%), Russell 2000 (2.8%), Nasdaq Composite (0.5%), KRE Regional Banks (3.5%), S&P 400 Midcaps (2.9%), Mexico (2.6%), Nasdaq Biotechs (1.9%), SOX (1.5%), S&P 500 (1.6%), Nasdaq Transports (3.1%) and Toronto’s TSX fell 1.6%.

April 14, 2024

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Filed under Finance & Investment Tagged with , , , ,

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