World Series fun fact

October 26, 2024 Leave a comment

My World Series almanac fun fact:

It has been 36 years since the Los Angeles #Dodgers had a 2nd baseman playing in the World Series whose last name contained only 3 letters and they both ended in ‘X’. Incidentally, both of their first names have 5 letters.

Over the next month (October 20 – November 16, 1988), the S&P 500 fell 7%, to a low of 263 points.

2 weeks after the 1988 World Series concluded, a Republican candidate was elected President.

The S&P 500 never breached that low again,

And the Dodgers won.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it !

#baseball

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Don’t root for the Phillies

November 8, 2023 Leave a comment

Once again, we need not worry about a recession.

Throw away of your inverted yield curves based analysis and everything else.

The Major League Baseball season has concluded.

During the playoffs, the Philadelphia Phillies baseball Club was (personally sadly) eliminated.

When the Phillies won the World Series in 1980, the following year a recession in the United States of America was officially announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Then when the Phillies, again, won the World Series in 2008, the NBER declared an official recession the following year.

As a result of the Phillies not winning the World Series, we won’t see a recession in the U.S. in 2024.

It’s that simple.

November 8, 2023

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

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Beat the Phillies

October 24, 2022 Leave a comment

Let’s hope that that Philadelphia Phillies don’t win the World Series. 

The global economy cannot afford it.

This from Morning Brew sums it up…..

“Are we about to enter an economic crisis? Could be. But don’t look at unemployment, interest rate hikes, or the housing market for clues. A better indicator is whether the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series.

As the baseball historians on the Brew’s social media team found, over the past 100 years the surest sign of an economic downturn has been a Philly-based baseball team winning the World Series. It happened in 1929, 1930, 1980, and 2008.”

source: Morning Brew October 5, 2022

I’m not being mean spirited.

I do have a soft spot for the Phillies. I grew up watching Mike Schmidt playing 3rd base.

However, last night the Phillies beat the Yankees for a berth in the World Series where they will meet the Houston Astros.

For the sake of the economy, 

Go Astros !

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Stubbornness Kills

September 29, 2022 Leave a comment

Whenever market observers write about their views, they often publish prices (targets, support lines, entry points) which reflect their predictions.

I do that too. 

I figure that the readers and myself need some reference or measuring point and there is also the sport of trying to ‘pick it’.

However, I anticipate moments in the coming months where my timing to deploy capital will revert to “NOW”

Swinging at a ball in a nice part of my strike zone is often better than ‘hoping’ for that perfect pitch.

Digging in my heels and waiting for that perfect price means my stubbornness will result in missing many investments opportunities or costing money.

Participating in the ‘fat part of the trade’ is an aim of mine 

I remind myself that getting the first and last 10% of any trade is quite difficult.

September 29, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

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Not trusting some of the signals

September 9, 2022 Leave a comment

In the short-term, markets look like they are about to play a little game which can be considered cruel.

‘Set-ups’ are suggesting rallies and lending to the June and July bottoms holding.

I’ll watch whether those lows still hold or make ‘lower lows’…..and in many assets/securities, I think they will hold.

The head fake may lie with many prices bouncing after having reverted to their long term mean but yet to register Oversold readings.

Keep in mind, that there is no rule saying both need to occur.

I think prices will jump a little, drag in a few more people and then spit them out again in the coming week or three followed up with another swoon.

Markets are cruel.

The price of the Baltic Dry Index and Aluminium are 2 examples, where they have mean reverted but yet to trade to weekly oversold levels and have bounced in the past day or two.

Experience and pattern recognition tells me to be patient for lower prices.

When your count is 3 balls and zero strikes, probability suggests you should ‘take a pitch’. You shouldn’t swing or chase a ball outside of your strike zone.

September 9, 2022
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au

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