Trying to hear what's not being said
February 4, 2025 Leave a comment
It doesn’t look pretty wherever your starting point is.
In the study below, Barrick Gold’s stock price has fallen 18% while Gold (as priced in CAD) has risen 68%.
In my client presentations I am reminding folks about the importance of how you express your investment view when comparing or considering an underlying trend or theme.
February 4, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 2, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Cattle *
Corn *
Gold in USD
Spain’s IBEX Index
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm Index *
Switzerland’s SMI Index
Poland’s WIG Index
Australia’s ASX 200 Index
And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *
Arabica Coffee *
Robusta Coffee
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
Gold as priced in AUD, CHF, EUR, GBP and ZAR.
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index
Israel’s TA35 *
Chile’s IGPA Index *
And Australia’s ASX Industrials Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Germany’s DAX Index *
Austria’s ATX *
Chile’s IPSA Index *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Lumber
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields *
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
Baltic Dry Index
Newcastle Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
AUD/THB *
CAD/USD
INR/USD *
And Philippine’s PSE Index
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
The only bond yields appearing in this week’s list is the overbought Japanese curve and the oversold Chinese 10’s.
Chile’s 2 year bond yields are in a 4 week rising streak,
As are the Japanese 2’s and 10’s.
Equities were mixed with an upward bias.
The CAC, DAX and ASX 200 are in 4 week winning streaks.
The first 2 have risen 9% in those 4 weeks.
Austria’s, Hungary’s and Switzerland’s main equity index have risen for 6 weeks straight.
The SMI climbed 10% over that time.
Chile’s IPSA is also in a 4 week rising streak and has risen for 10 of the past 12 weeks.
The KOSPI broke its 5 week winning streak.
Philippines PSE has fallen for 4 weeks.
The PSE and the Philadelphia SOX Index tanked over 6%.
The Czech Republic’s PX Index broke its 8 consecutive weeks of advance.
Hong Kong and Chinese markets were closed for most of the week.
And the DAX is at an all-time high.
Commodity prices were mixed with a lower bias.
Arabica Coffee has risen for 4 straight weeks.
Palladium has climbed for 4 of the past 5 weeks.
Orange Juice is in a 6 week losing streak.
Coal, Gases, Wheat, Sugar and Precious Metals gained.
Oil, Cocoa, Aluminium, Oats, Rice and Henry Hub Natural Gas fell.
Corn has risen for 7 of the past 9 weeks and features prominently as an ‘overbought extreme’.
Cattle prices are at their highest since November 2014.
The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 59% over the past 2 months.
Coal prices remain in oversold territory.
Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 9 consecutive weeks,
Gold in USD has risen for 5 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 6 week winning streak.
Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 17 weeks.
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel broke its 4 week losing streak but has spent 36 weeks being oversold,
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 87 consecutive weeks.
Currencies saw some action.
The DXY (USD) Index rose 1%
The AUD fell.
The Brazilian Real has risen for 5 straight weeks versus the USD.
The Loonie is at its lowest since March ’20 and Jan ;16.
The Euro was weaker.
While the Yen rallied.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Richards Bay Coal 2.3%, Rotterdam Coal 2.5%, Leans Hog 2.3%, JKM LNG 2.3%, Coffee 8.7%, Lumber 4.7%, Palladium 6.2%, Platinum 7.4%, Robusta Coffee 3.1%, Sugar 1.7%, Sugar #16 4.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 6.9%, Silver in AUD 4.1%, Silver in USD 2.8%, Gold in AUD 2.7%, Gold in CAD 2.3%, Gold in EUR 2.3%, Gold in GBP 1.8%, Gold in ZAR 2.5%, Wheat 2.9%, AEX 2.3%, IBEX 3.2%, BOVESPA 3%, KRE Regional Banks 1.3%, FTSE 2.1%, NIFTY 2.1%, OBX 1.8%, SA40 2.4%, SENSEX 1.7%, SMI 2.5%, IGPA 2%, FTSE 100 2%, WIG 1.8%, ASX Financials 1.6% and the ASX 200 rose 1.5%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (2.6%), Baltic Dry Index (5.5%), Brent Crude Oil (2.5%), Cocoa (5.2%), WTI Crude Oil (2.9%), Cotton (2.6%), Heating Oil (2.1%), Natural Gas (17.2%), Nickel (3.1%), S&P GSCI (1.6%), CRB Index (1.6%), Gasoil (1.5%), Oats (3.5%), Rice (5.7%), DJ Transports (1.8%), Russell 2000 (1%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.1%), PSE (6.9%), SET (2.9%), SOX (6.1%), S&P 500 (1%) and the Tel Aviv 35 fell 2.7%.
February 2, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 1, 2025 Leave a comment
Cattle ranchers (farmers) should be selling more of their herd than usual…….
And so, at your regional mid-week cattle yard sales……offer more of your stock than you usually do.
Live #Cattle prices are stretched in absolute terms,
and in empirical terms….very much so !
#Beef purchasers (perhaps processors) should be cautious paying up to secure supply at these prices.
Lovers of steaks and hamburgers…..while aggrieved with ‘recent’ higher prices, you should see lower prices from hereon in.
February 1, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
February 1, 2025 Leave a comment
The #CAD/USD is registering a weekly oversold reading.
The larger picture sees the #Loonie (not withstanding the lower spike in January 2016 and March 2020) trading at its lowest against the Greenback in 22 years.
American companies would be well advised to buy up cheap Canadian assets and see if they can work their way through alleviating tariff concerns……
or perhaps Americans can buy property in Alberta, Newfoundland/Labrador, Nova Scotia or New Brunswick?
and possibly immigrate??
At the very least, #Canada is on sale, on a USD basis……
February 1, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 31, 2025 Leave a comment
If you work for UBS and they’ve given you shares as part of your remuneration…..
I’m seeing the UBS share price trading at (some of my) extremes not seen since mid-2015 and early 2007.
January 31, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 30, 2025 Leave a comment
At the time of writing (mid-morning during Thursday’s trading session on Jan 30, ’25), ASML shares are only up 1.6% for the week, even after rising 10% in the past 2 days.
ASML won’t be of interest to me until the stock trades down to EUR 415.
And says alot of what I think is ahead for the semiconductor darlings.
January 30, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 27, 2025 Leave a comment
I’m still keeping tabs on my call for lower prices in Uranium.
My re-entry point is nearly there.
January 27, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 26, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Cattle *
Corn *
EUR/GBP
Austria’s ATX *
France’s CAC Index
Italy’s MIB Index *
Sweden’s OMX Stockholm Index
Philly’s SOX
And the U.K.’s FTSE 100 *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields
Arabica Coffee *
Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *
Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR and GBP
USD/INR
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Israel’s TA35 *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Germany’s DAX Index *
Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Turkish 10 year government bond yields
GBP/EUR
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields *
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal *
Richards Bay Coal *
Newcastle Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
AUD/THB
INR/USD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields were mixed and subdued.
All of the bond yields which appeared in last week’s overbought categories are not there this week.
The Euro 10 year yield and the US10/2 yield spread broke their 6 week run of higher closes.
Spanish, French, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year bond yields broke their 5 week rising streak.
While the Turkish 10 year bond yield has fallen for 5 straight weeks.
Equities had a another good week.
All the notable gainers appear in the ‘advancers’ list below, with no decliners listed.
Taking risk is being welcomed.
Austria’s, Hungary’s, South Korea’s, Spain’s and Switzerland’s main equity indices are in a 5 week winning streak. The latter has risen 8% over that time.
Notably, the CAC and DAX have risen 7.5% over the past 3 weeks.
The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 8 consecutive weeks and for 17 of the past 19 weeks.
Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index broke its 8 week winning streak. It has closed higher for 13 of the past 15.
The DAX is at an all-time high.
While the AEX, FTSE 100, Nasdaq Transports and Norway’s OBX broke their 4 consecutive weeks of gains.
The Nikkei 225 rose and has nearly recovered the loses of the past 3 weeks,
And the U.S. biotech index had a good week.
Commodity prices were mostly higher.
Last week, the 3 major commodity indices were registering overbought ‘extremes’.
This week, they are not.
Oil and Distillates dragged those indices lower and many broke their 4 week winning streaks. Furthermore, none of them traded higher than last weeks high as they all dropped out of overbought territory.
Coffee, Palladium Gases and Cocoa were majors winners for the week.
Corn has risen for 7 of the past 8 weeks and features prominently as an ‘overbought extreme’.
Cattle prices are at their highest since November 2014.
Orange Juice is in a 5 week losing streak.
The Baltic Dry Index has fallen 84% over the past 4 months.
Coal prices remain in oversold territory.
Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 8 consecutive weeks,
Gold in USD has risen for 4 weeks while Gold in CHF is in a 5 week winning streak.
Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 16 weeks.
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel is in a 4 week losing streak and has spent 35 weeks being oversold,
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 86 consecutive weeks.
Currencies were quiet compared to past weeks.
The DXY (USD) Index fell and it’s no longer overbought. It took all last weeks oversold currency pairs with it.
The AUD was stronger again.
The Brazilian Real has risen for 4 straight weeks versus the USD.
The Loonie was weaker against everyone except the USD.
The Euro was stronger and was the British Pound.
EUR/USD isn’t oversold anymore as its 2% higher since the oversold extreme cited 2 weeks ago.
The Swiss is firmer as the CHF/JPY broke a 4 week losing run.
And so, the Yen was weaker everywhere.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Cocoa 3.8%, JKM LNG 2.4%, Arabica Coffee 5.9%, Cattle 2.8%, JKM LNG in ¥ 3.7%, Tin 1.3%, Natural Gas 2%, Palladium 4.4%, Robusta Coffee 10.8%, Sugar 4.4%, Dutch TTF Gas 6%, Soybeans 2.1%, All World Developed ex USA 3%, ATX 1.7%, CAC 2.8%, DAX 2.4%, DJ Industrials 2.2%, HSCEI 2.9%, Hang Seng 2.5%, IDX 1.6%, Russell 2000 1.4%, TAEIX 1.6%, Nasdaq Composite 1.7%, Mexico 2.8%, Nasdaq Biotech’s 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 1.6%, Copenhagen and Helsinki rose 1.5%, Stockholm 2%, PX 2.6%, SMI 2.5%, S&P 500 1.7%, TSX 1.6%, WIG 2.6% and the ASX Financials rose 3.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (1.7%), Baltic Dry Index (21.2%), Brent Crude Oil (2.9%), WTI Crude Oil (3.5%), DXY Index (1.8%), Heating Oil (4.4%), Lumber (5%), Nickel (2.8%), Gasoline (3.2%), Gasoil (4.2%) and Uranium fell 3.8%.
January 26, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 23, 2025 Leave a comment
Here at the moments when Germany’s #DAX Index has registered a monthly overbought reading.
While there is more behind my analysis, this simple study suggests that those who allocate capital into #German equities might be dummkopf or perhaps foolish, if they haven’t got one foot out of the door.
January 23, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
January 19, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Chilean and Japanese 2 year government bond yields
German and Japanese 5 year government bond yields
Austrian, Canadian, German, Danish, Spanish, French, Greek, Italian, Japanese, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year government bond yields
Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread
Bloomberg Commodity Index
Brent Crude Oil *
WTI Crude Oil *
Heating Oil *
Cattle
Natural Gas *
Gasoil *
Gasoline
S&P GSCI Index
CRB Index
Corn *
CAD/GBP
Italy’s MIB Index
Chile’s IGPA Index
And the U.K.’s FTSE 100
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Brazilian 10 year government bond yield *
DXY Index *
Arabica Coffee *
Gold as priced in AUD, CAD, GBP and EUR
Austria’s ATX Index
Hungary’s BUX Index
Germany’s DAX Index
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
Czech Republic’s PX Index *
Israel’s TA35 *
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Urea U.S. Gulf
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields *
Rotterdam Coal
Raw Sugar
Egypt 30 Index
KLSE
FTSE 250
And Thailand’s SET Index
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chinese 10 year government bond yields *
U.S. 3 month government bill yield *
Australian Coking Coal
Richards Bay Coal
Newcastle Coal *
North European Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel *
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
CAD/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
RMB/USD *
DKK/USD *
INR/USD *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields fell.
The Euro 10 year yield has risen for 6 weeks straight as has the US10/2 yield spread.
Spanish, French, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10 year bond yields have risen for 5 weeks.
The U.S. 5 year bond minus the U.S. 3 month bill yield spread fell from overbought territory.
And the noise surrounding the heights in the British 30 year bond yield, resulted in it declining for the week.
Equities had a terrific week.
All the notable gainers appear in the ‘advancers’ list below.
Only a few Asian indices saw weakness.
Copenhagen’s OMX25 was the rare decliner in western markets due to Novo Nordisk accounting for 12% of the index weighting.
The past week saw an overbought extreme for Britain’s FTSE 100 juxtaposed against the FTSE 250 registering an oversold extreme.
The Czech Republic’s PX Index has risen for 7 consecutive weeks and for 16 of the past 18 weeks.
Israel’s Tel Aviv 35 Index had climbed for 8 straight weeks and for 13 of the past 14.
The Regional Banks (KRE) Index broke it for 6 consecutive weeks of decline.
The DAX is at an all-time high.
The BUX, SMI, AEX, FTSE 100, Nasdaq Transports, IBEX and Norways OBX have risen for 4 weeks in a row.
The Nikkei 225 has fallen for the past 3 weeks.
While Chinese and Hong Kong equities recovered last weeks declines.
Commodity prices were mostly higher.
The 3 major commodity indices are overbought.
Aluminium is at its highest weekly close since April 2024.
Gasoline has climbed for 4 consecutive weeks.
Corn has risen for 6 of the past 7 weeks.
While Orange Juice is in a 4 week losing streak.
The few losers for the week included Platinum, Sugar, Lumber, Australian Coking Coal and the Baltic Dry Index.
Coal prices remain in oversold territory.
Gold as priced in CAD has risen for 7 consecutive weeks, while AUD Gold broke its 6 week winning streak.
Sugar has fallen for 13 of the past 15 weeks.
U.S.Midwest Hot Rolled Coil Steel has spent 34 weeks being oversold,
while Lithium Hydroxide has now lingered in weekly oversold territory for 85 consecutive weeks.
Currencies continue to provide much action.
Compared to last week’s list, many currencies have departed the oversold region.
Although, notably, there are still a few which are oversold compared to the USD.
The DXY (USD) Index remains in overbought territory,
The AUD was stronger except vs the JPY and ZAR
and the Aussie broke its 6 week losing streak again the USD.
The Euro was mixed
And the Yen was firmer.
The weakness in the Loonie continued as it touched a 22 year low versus the USD.
Oddly, the Canadian Dollar registered an overbought extreme against the British Pound.
While the Swiss broke its 5 weeks losing streak against the USD, its lowest weekly close since March 2023.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Richards Bay Coal 2%, Aluminium 5.4%, Rotterdam Coal 3.3%, Cocoa 5.7%, WTI Crude Oil 2.9%, Heating Oil 3.5%, JKM LNG in ¥ 1.8%, Newcastle Coal 4.1%, Nickel 2.3%, Gasoline 1.9%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.2%, CRB Index 1.7%, Gasoil 3.1%, Corn 2.9%, Oats 10.4%, Rice 2.4%, Shanghai Composite 2.3%, CSI 300 2.1%, All Developed World ex uSA 1.8%, AEX 2.7%, ATX 3.5%, KBW Banks 8.2%, BUX 3.8%, CAC 3.8%, China A50 2.3%, DAX 3.4%, DJ Industrials 3.7%, Dow Jones Transports 3.2%, MIB 3.4%, HSCEI 3.1%, Hang Seng 2.7%, IBEX 1.7%, BOVESPA 2.9%, IDX 1.8%, S&P SmallCap 600 4.3%, Russell 2000 4%, Nasdaq Composite 2.5%, KRE Regional Banks 8.2%, KSE 1.8%, FTSE 250 4.4%, S&P MidCap 400 4.5%, Nasdaq 100 2.9%, Helsinki 2.1%, Stockholm 3.7%, PX 2%, SA40 1.8%, SOX 5.4%, Chile 2.1%, S&P 500 2.9%, TA35 3.1%, FTSE 100 3.1%, WIG 1.8% and the ASX Materials Index rose 2.6%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (2.2%), Baltic Dry Index (5.8%), Lean Hogs (1.7%), JKM LNG (2.2%), Lumber (2.1%), Platinum (3.1%), Cane Sugar (5.2%), Raw Sugar (2.1%), Gold in ZAR (1.5%), KLSE (2.2%), Nikkei 225 (1.9%), Copenhagen (2.1%), SET (2%) and Philippines PSE fell 2.2%.
January 19, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 