rob zdravevski's blog

A toppy Nasdaq 100

Extrapolating from my note 6 days ago, suggesting the advance has been good enough….the Nasdaq 100 has now soared 29.5% in the past 6 weeks since my oversold call on April 4th.

What’s occurin’ at the Nasdaq 100

My series of newsletters from mid-March to mid April was also informing readers of notable extreme lows being seen in equities.

https://mailchi.mp/karriasset/its-noisiest-at-the-extremes

Feel free to subscribe to the newsletter as it’s not always published on this medium.

Today, indices are reasonably ‘full’, while there are nuances and reasons to remain ‘long’ in my selected securities.

May 18, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending May 16, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

Cattle

India’s NIFTY

And the ASX Industrials equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

Hungary’s BUX index

Spain’s IBEX index

Czechia’s PX Index *

and Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Tel Aviv 25 equity index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

None

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

Newcastle Coal 

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose again, again.

Italian 2 year bond yields have risen for 4 weeks. 

Brazilian and Indonesian 10 year yields broke their 4 straight weeks of decline.

U.S. 10 year yield minus U.S. 10 year inflation rate is nearly overbought.

Equities had a tremendous week.

Several indices are overbought and many streaks are in progress.

The TAEIX, SOX and Nasdaq Transports have risen for 4 consecutive weeks. 

The AEX, ATX, DAX, MIB, HSCEI, Hang Seng, IBEX, KLSE, KRE Regional Banks, KOSPI, OMX Helsinki, PSE, Strait Times, IDX and the ASX Materials and Industrials have climbed for 5 straight weeks.

The Bovespa, S&P SmallCap 600, Russell 2000, FTSE 250, IPSA, S&P MidCap 400, ASX SmallCaps, TSX and KBW Banks Index are in 6 week winning streaks.

Israel’s TA35 broke its 4 week winning streak.

SET, WIG and the ASX SmallCaps broke their 5 weeks of consecutive advance.

The Dow Jones Industrials has risen 5 of the past 6 weeks.

Commodities were mixed.

The largest winners were Oils & Distillates, Gases (again), Cocoa, Orange Juice, Lumber and Tin.

The notable losers included Coal, Cotton, Coffee, Natural Gas, Silver and Gold.

Heating Oil has risen 7.5% over the past 2 weeks.

Lumber left oversold territory as did Gold across as priced against all currencies.

Gold prices are at their lowest close since April 10th.

Newcastle Coal returned to being oversold.

Rubber & Cattle broke its 4 week winning streak.

Uranium has risen for 5 week straight streaks.

Rice & Wheat broke a 4 week losing streak.

Corn has declined 12% during its 5 week losing streak. 

And U.S. Gulf Urea prices broke their 5 straight weeks of advance.

Currencies were subdued, but there are many streaks in play.

All the currencies which appeared as extremes in last week’s list, are no longer so.

The British Pound was mixed, Yen flat, Aussie firmer and Euro weaker.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has risen for 4 weeks.

AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF and AUD/EUR are in a 6 week winning streak.

AUD/CHF and the GBP/JPY have risen for 5 weeks.

While on the losing streaks, the USD/ZAR has declined for 6 consecutive weeks.

The AUD/ZAR has fallen for 5 straight weeks.

CHF/AUD and the EUR/GBP are in 5 week losing streaks.

BRL/USD broke its 4 weeks of advance against the USD.

PHP/USD broke its 5 week winning streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Aluminium 3.5%, Baltic Dry Index 6.9%, Brent Crude 2.2%, Cocoa 18.6%, WTI Crude 2.4%, Lean Hogs 2.8%, Heating Oil 3.7%, Lumber 5.2%, Tin 2.8%, Orange Juice 9.8%, Gasoline 1.3%, Dutch TTF Gas 1.6%, Gasoil 3%, Uranium 1.9%, ATX 3%, AEX 2.8%, KBW Banks 6.5%, BUX 3.2%, CAC 1.9%, China A50 1.7%, DJ Industrials 3.4%, DJ Transports 8%, MIB 3.3%, HSCEI 1.9%, Hang Seng 2.1%, BOVESPA 2%, IDX 4.5%, S&P SmallCap 600 4.7%, Russell 2000 4.5%, TAEIX 4.4%, Nasdaq Composite 7.2%, KLSE 1.6%, KRE Regional Banks 4.7%, KSE 11.6%, KOSPI 1.9%, FTSE 250 2.3%, S&P MidCap 400 4.9%, Mexico 2.5%, Nasdaq Biotech 4.1%, Nasdaq 100 6.8%, Oslo 4%, Copenhagen 4%, Helsinki 3.4%, Stockholm 3.9%, PX 2.1%, SENSEX 3.6%, SMI 2.1%, SOX 10.2%, IGPA 1.9%, S&P 500 5.3%, Nasdaq Transports 7%, TSX 2.4%, Vietnam 2.7%, ASX 200 1.4%, ASX Materials 2.6%, ASX Industrials 1.*%, BIST 3%, IBB 3.9% and Nasdaq Biotechs 3.4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Richards Bay Coal (1.6%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.8%), Cotton (2,6%), Arabica Coffee 5.7%), Newcastle Coal (2.3%), Natural Gas (12.2%), Palladium (2.2%), Robusta Coffee (6.9%), Sugar (1.5%), Rubber (1.7%), Silver (1.3%), Gold in AUD (3.5%), Gold in CAD (3.5%), Gold in CHF (2.9%), Gold in EUR (3%), Gold in GBP (3.5%), Gold in USD (3.8%), Gold in ZAR (4.6%) and Corn fell 1.4%.

May 18, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

ASX 200 lagging others in the bounce

Just for sport, since the April 7th, 2025 low seen across various equity markets,

Australia’s ASX 200 hasn’t kept up with the bounce.

I’ve place a sample on the study below.

Italy’s MIB and the Nasdaq Composite have soared 24% over the past 6 weeks.

Sweden’s OMX and the S&P 500 have climbed 17%,

while the ASX 200 and the FTSE 100 rose 13% over the same time.

What is notable is the difference between the 24% and 13% performance is more than an adequate year’s return in its own right.

May 17, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

They’re begging for a rate cut, again

Over the past 2 weeks of investor presentations, the overwhelming question I was asked was “do you think we’ll get a rate cut”?

It doesn’t matter whether that question was postured towards the American or the Australian market.

The sub title of my blog is “Trying to hear what’s not being said”.

https://robzdravevski.com/

Depending on the questioners predicament, what they are saying is either;

1) We need more interest rate relief because we haven’t reduced our debt over the past 4 years.

or

2) Stock market gains of 50% over the past 2 years are not what they seem because we bought stocks at the high end of the pendulum and need a little pop so we can break-even.

And so I ask myself, why are people needing an interest rate cut?

The cost of money is not expensive.

May 16, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

26% pop since my April 7th low call

It’s good enough and more than adequate.

On April 7th, 2025, I wrote a few notes along with a newsletter sharing my view about an acute buying moment for equities.

This note (from the same day)… related the extremes lows to an opportunity in the Nasdaq 100.

https://robzdravevski.com/2025/04/07/use-data-ignore-the-noise/

5 weeks later, the Nasdaq 100 has risen 26%.

I’d say that is good enough and more than done.

Even though 26% represents  more than 2 years worth of adequate return within 5 weeks…..many won’t take any profit.

Maybe some should and take the rest of the year ‘off’,

but they won’t,

for they will ‘stay at the table’ and give up 8% of those returns,

while trying to recoup that 8% of ‘give back’,

they’ll see another 5% erode away,

and now with ‘only’ a 13% return, they plug away until the total return halves and they are left with 7% and now determined to ‘teach’ the market a lesson.

May 13, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending May 9, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

U.S. 3 month bill yield

MYR/USD *

THB/USD *

Mexico’s IPC equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70) 

Turkish 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread *

Cattle

Gold in AUD, CAD, GBP, USD and ZAR *

Czechia’s PX Index

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA equity indices *

And Poland’s WIG equity index

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)

Urea (U.S. Gulf price) *

PHP/USD * 

Tel Aviv 25 equity index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)

WTI Crude Oil *

USD/INR

USD/KRW

Pakistan’s KSE equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30)

Indian 10 year government bond yield * 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithium Hydroxide *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose again.

Brazilian and Indonesian 10 year yields have declined for 4 straight weeks.

Indian and Norwegian 10 year bond yields broke their 7 week of declines.

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield dropped out from being overbought.

Equities were mostly higher.

Many streaks are in progress.

The AEX, ATX, DAX, MIB, HSCEI, Hang Seng, IBEX, KLSE, KRE Regional Banks, KOSPI, OMX Helsinki, PSE, IGPA, TSX and ASX Materials have climbed for 4 straight weeks.

The Bovespa, S&P SmallCap 600, Russell 2000, FTSE 250, S&P MidCap 400, SET, WIG, ASX Industrials, ASX SmallCaps and KBW Banks Index are in 5 week winning streaks.

The All World Developed (ex USA) Index, DJ Transports, IDX, SA40 and OMX Oslo broke their 4 weeks of consecutive advance.

While biotechs were smacked.

Commodities were mixed, with a higher bias.

The largest winners were Oils & Distillates, Gases (again), Coals, Precious Metals, Urea, Sugar and Base Metals.

The notable losers included Shipping Rates, Orange Juice, Lithium Hydroxide, Corn & Wheat.

Newcastle Coal prices have shipped out from being oversold over the past 20 weeks.

Cattle, Rubber and Uranium are in 4 week rising streaks.

Inversely, Corn, Rice and Wheat are in 4 week losing streaks.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have risen for 6 straight weeks and has climbed to prices not seen since November 2022

And Lithium Hydroxide has been oversold territory for 101 consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie was mixed, the Loonie weaker and the British Pound was stronger.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has risen for 3 weeks and notably advanced since its oversold reading of 4 and 5 weeks ago.

AUD/CAD and AUD/EUR are in a 5 week winning streak, while AUD/JPY and AUD/USD broke their winning streaks at the 4 week mark.

Perversely, the AUD/ZAR has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

The USD has declined for 5 consecutive weeks against the Rand.

The Brazilian Real has climbed for 4 weeks versus the USD as has the GBP against the Yen.

CHF/AUD and the EUR/GBP are in 4 week losing streaks.

The USD has sunk for 8 of the past 10 weeks versus the Loonie.

And the Philippine Peso has risen for 5 weeks against the USD.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;

Rotterdam Coal 1.5%, Cocoa 3.6%, Brent Crude 4%, WTI Crude 4.7%, Heating Oil 3.7%, HRC 1.8%, JKM LNG 1.8%, Cattle 1.7%, JKM LNG in Yen 11.2%, Tin 4.3%, Newcastle Coal 1.6%, Natural Gas 4.6%, Nickel 2.1%, Palladium 3.2%, Platinum 3.7%, Gasoline 4.4%, Sugar 3.6%, S&P GSCI 2.2%, CRB 1.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 4.7%, Gasoil 2.7%, Silver in AUD 2.8%, Silver in USD 2.2%, Gold in AUD 3.2%, Gold in CAD 3.5%, Gold in CHF 3.2%, Gold in EUR 3.1%, Gold in GBP 2.4%, Gold in USD 2.7%, Oats 1.7%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, ATX 4.6%, BUX 2%, DAX 1.8%, MIB 2.7%, Hang Seng 1.6%, Nikkei 225 1.8%, PX 4.2%, SOX 1.6%, IGPA 2.4%, TA35 4.7%, Nasdaq Transports 1.6%, Vietnam 3.3%, WIG 2%, BIST 2.4%, ASX Industrials 1.5% and the ASX SmallCaps rose 3.5%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included;

Baltic Dry Index (7.4%), Cotton (2.5%), Palm Oil (1.7%), Lithium Hydroxide (4.6%), Orange Juice (10.2%), Corn (4.1%), Rice (1.6%), Wheat (3.9%), KSE (6.1%), Nasdaq Biotech ETF (8.5%), NIFTY (1.4%), Copenhagen (1.4%), SMI (1.4%), IBB ETF (7.9%) and the XBI Biotech ETF sunk 8.5%.

May 11, 2025

By Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au

Unloved biotech

The iShares Biotech ETF (IBB US) is approaching its most oversold Monthly reading since 2009.

May 10, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Re-visiting a recent Sell call on UBS

On January 31st, 2025, I called UBS stock price as being overbought and trading at notable extremes.

UBS is overbought

4 weeks ago, the stock price completed its mean reversion 4 weeks ago by falling 35%.

Since then, we’ve seen an expected and nice bounce along with the rest of the broader equities market but I think that the UBS stock price should retrace lower in the coming weeks, for it remains in a downtrend which is strengthening.

May 9, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au