Trying to hear what's not being said
July 3, 2025 Leave a comment
The attached study shows 8 moments over the past 50 years when the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index has registered certain metrics which has an impact on commodity prices and bond yields.
While the U.S. Dollar weakened enough to reach some weekly extremes, on a Monthly basis, it has a little more to go.
July 3, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 30, 2025 Leave a comment
The opening sentence in my recent presentations has been;
“I don’t see any broader structural problems with equities”.
The attached study highlights the 12th moment in 35 years when the Copper/Gold Ratio registered a Monthly extreme which suggests a further advance in the S&P 500.
June 30, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 29, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Palladium
Uranium
Shanghai Composite
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year bond yield spread
U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread
CHF/USD
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Platinum *
KOSPI *
And the Tel Aviv 35 equity index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Arabica Coffee *
Oversold (RSI < 30)
U.S. (DXY) Index
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
CAD/CHF
CAD/EUR
HKD/USD *
USD/CHF
USD/DKK
And Thailand’s SET equity index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Robusta Coffee *
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields generally fell, again, again….
Except for Japanese yields where the 5’s and 10’s broke their 4 week falling streak.
High Yield Corporates are nearing oversold territory.
U.S. 10’s minus 2’s spread appear to be a maximum bullishness.
Chilean 2 year and Russian 10 year bond yields have fallen for 5 straight weeks.
The Chinese 10’s have done so for 4 weeks.
U.S. 2 year bond yields are near longer term mean reversion,
While the U.S. 3 year yields already did so.
Equities were had a good week.
Asian indices fared well with the Shanghai Composite registering an overbought reading.
South Korea’s KOSPI has risen for 5 straight weeks.
The Philadelphia SOX index is in a 4 week winning streak.
Norway’s OMX broke its 4 week winning streak.
Indonesias IDX broke its 4 week losing streak.
Thailand’s SET index broke it 6 consecutive weeks of losses.
Commodities were mixed, again.
Oils, Distillates and Gases dominated the losers, along with the Softs.
The Copper/Gold Ratio rose notably which aligned with the ‘rick-on’ appetite seen in equities.
The Baltic Dry Index fell 10% and 24% over the past fortnight.
Gold prices fell and as such Gold Volatility mean reverted.
Tin looks like its set for a higher move as it registers a 4 week winning streak.
Platinum has also risen for 4 week straight, advancing 25% during that time.
Robusta Coffee has sunk for 9 consecutive weeks.
And Sugar is in a 7 week losing streak.
Currencies were active.
The big news is the U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index appearing in oversold territory.
And with that, comes a host of USD pairs registering extreme treading this week.
The Aussie was mixed. It was weaker versus the Europeans and stronger in Asia and the USD.
Brazil’s Real is in a 4 week winning streak vs the USD.
The Loonie was mostly weaker with the CAD/EUR in a 4 week losing streak.
The Swissie was stronger and the CHF/JPY has risen for 5 straight weeks.
EUR/JPY has climbed for 5 straight weeks.
GBP was stronger.
Yen was mixed.
PHP/USD broke its 4 week losing streak
And the USD/INR broke its 4 week winning streak.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Aluminium 1.7%, Cocoa 9.2%, Cotton 3,9%, Lumber 2%, Cattle 1.7%, Tin 3.3%, Nickel 1.5%, Palladium 9.2%, Platinum 5.8%, Uranium 2.5%, Oats 2.7%, Shanghai Composite 1.9%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.8%, ATX 1.9%, KBW Banks Index 5.6%, DAX 2.9%, Dj Industrials 3.9%, DJ Transports 4.9%, Egypt 9.1%, FCATC Index 4.5%, HSCEI 2.8%, Hang Seng 3.2%, S&P SmallCap 600 3.2%, Russell 2000 3%, TAIEX 2.4%, Nasdaq Composite 4.3%, KLSE 1.7%, KRE Regional Banks 4.4%, KSE 3.6% FTSE 250 2.7%, Mexico 2%, S&P MidCap 400 2.6%, Nasdaq 100 4.2%, Nikkei 225 4.6%, NIFTY 2.1%, Stockholm 2.4%, SENSEX 2%, SOX 6.4%, S&P 500 3.4%, STI 2.1%, TA35 2.5%, Nasdaq Transports 3.7%, WIG 3.3%, ASX Financials 1.8%, ASX Materials 1.8%.
For reference, the ASX 200 rose 0.1%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Bloomberg Commodity Index (3.6%), Brent Crude (12.1%), WTI Crude Oil (11.3%), Baltic Dry Index (10%), DXY Index (1.5%), Palm Oil (2.6%), Heating Oil (10.5%), HRC (2.4%), JKM LNG (7.4%), Arabica Coffee (3.6%), JKM LNG in Yen (13,3%), Newcastle Coal (4%), Natural Gas (6.8%), Orange Juice (3.3%), Gasoline (10.4%), Robusta Coffee (2.2%), Sugar (1.8%), S&P GSCI (6.1%), CRB Index (4.,1%), Dutch TTF Gas (14.1%), Gasoil (11%), Gold in AUD (4%), Gold in CAD (3.2%), Gold in CHF (5.1%), Gold in EUR (4.4%), Gold in GBP (4.7%), Gold in USD (2.8%), Gold in ZAR (4%), Corn (2.8%), Rice (2%), Soybeans (3.4%), Wheat (7.3%), OBX (2.2%) and the ASX Industrials fell 2.6%.
June 29, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 26, 2025 Leave a comment
The Euro is trading at a rare pricing extreme (according to my metrics and work) compared to the U.S. Dollar, seen for the 7th time in 25 years.
Inversely, the U.S. Dollar is at a monumental low against the EUR.
Europeans should be buying American assets, should they think their capital is either welcomed or will be treated well there…….
June 26, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 24, 2025 Leave a comment
In my May 23, 2025 edition of Macro Extremes, the GBP/USD was listed as trading at an overbought extreme.
So, I look for the British Pound to fall against the U.S. Dollar in the forthcoming months.
Until then, London real estate will be that little bit more expensive for U.S. Dollar buyers.
June 24, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 24, 2025 Leave a comment
Crude Oil has fallen 11% over the past 15 hours.
Avid readers of my work will have noticed that this weekends edition of Macro Extremes featured Brent and WTI Crude Oil at overbought extremes.
This note is not about entering any type of Short Oil trade.
I’m saying that it wasn’t time to chase Oil prices higher.
My June 13, 2025 note titled, “I’m not buying Oil on the sound of cannons“, warned that it was too late to buy Oil AND the point to buy was at the $54-$55 level suggested in my prior writings.
The ‘fat part’ of the trade had been seen and there was risk and probability of a decline.
It’s important to not get torched chasing the momentum when extremes are being observed.
June 24,. 2025
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 22, 2025 Leave a comment
A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Czech 10 year government bond yield *
Brent Crude Oil *
WTI Crude Oil *
Heating Oil *
Silver
Gasoil
Uranium
BRL/USD
Oats
Overbought (RSI > 70)
U.S. Mid West Hot Rolled Coil Steel
Hungary’s BUX index
Norway’s OBX index
And the ASX 200 Industrials index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Platinum *
KOSPI *
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Arabica Coffee
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Lithium Carbonate *
Lithium Hydroxide *
HKD/USD *
And Thailand’s SET equity index *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
Robusta Coffee
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields generally fell, again.
Swiss 10’s bucked that week’s mood and rose.
Then BB rated U.S. corporate bond yield mean reverted.
The yields of Chilean 2’s, British 30’s, Russian 10’s and Japanese 5’s & 10’s have all declined for 4 straight weeks.
Italian 10 year bond yields also mean reverted.
Indonesian 10 year bond yields broke their 4 week losing streak.
Indian 10’s rose for the 3rd week and left oversold territory.
And U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5 year yield spread are nearly overbought again.
Equities were mixed.
A few new names joined the overbought extreme list this week.
Indonesias IDX is in a 4 week losing streak.
Thailand’s SET index has declined for 6 consecutive weeks.
Inversely, Norway’s and South Korea’s main indices are in 4 week winning streaks.
The latter is at a quinella of extremes.
And Australia’s Financials, ASX Small Caps and ASX 200 indices broke their 5 week winning streaks.
Commodities were mixed.
Oils and Distillates continue to be in the news.
Brent Crude, Heating Oil and JKM LNG prices have risen 21%, 23.5% and 13% respectively over the past 3 weeks.
Gasoil (diesel) rose 11% for the week, notwithstanding Friday’s 5% decline.
The Baltic Dry Index fell 14%, giving up a third of the 40% advance seen over the previous 3 weeks.
Silver remains overbought, while Gold isn’t.
Platinum records a quinella overbought reading,
The largest winners were Oils and Distillates, Palm Oil, Urea, Uranium and Platinum.
The notable losers included Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, oats, Corn, and Shipping Rates.
U.S. Hot Rolled Coil Steel returns to being overbought.
Sugar prices have fallen for the past 6 weeks.
Robusta Coffee is in a 8 week losing streak.
And Rice broke its 5 week winning streak.
Currencies were subdued.
A host of currencies from last weeks list have left extreme territory.
The Aussie rose against most pairs.
The CAD fell except vs the JPY which is in a 4 week winning streak.
The CHF/JPY, EUR/JPY and USD/INR have risen for 4 straight weeks too.
The U.S. Dollar rose.
The Filipino Peso has fallen for 4 straight weeks against the USD.
And the BRL/USD is in overbought territory.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Brent Crude 3.8%, WTI Crude Oil 3.3%, Palm Oil 5%, Lean Hogs 3%, Heating Oil 7%, JKM LNG 6.5%, JKM in Yen 12.6%, Newcastle Coal 3.2%, Natural Gas 7.4%, Platinum 4.3%, Gasoline 4.4%, S&P GSCI 2.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.1%, Urea Gulf 2.9%, Gasoil 10.9%. Uranium 10.4%, Wheat 4.3%, KBW Banks Index 3.3%, BUX 3.4%, KOSPI 4.4%, Nikkei 225 1.5%, NIFTY 1.6%, SOX 1.9% and Vietnam’s VN Index rose 2.6%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Australian Coking Coal (2.3%), Baltic Dry Index (14.2%), Cocoa (8.8%), Cotton (1.7%), Arabica Coffee (9%), Lumber (1.7%), Tin (1.7%), Orange Juice (14.9%), Robusta Coffee (12.4%), Gold in USD (1.8%), Corn (3.5%), Oats (6.7%), IDX (4.5%), Egypt (7%), IBB (2%), Mexico (2%), NBI (2%), Copenhagen (4%), SET (4.9%), SMI (2.3%) and the ASX Industrials fell 4.3%.
For reference, the S&P 500 fell 0.2% for the week.
June 22, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 19, 2025 Leave a comment
In my mid May ‘Macro Extremes’ note, 2025 Australia’s ASX Industrials (XNJ) Index registered one of my overbought readings.
One month later, the XNJ has only drifted 1% higher….
but it is now very close to registering more notable, longer term overbought extremes.
June 19, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
June 19, 2025 Leave a comment
If you bought the Los Angeles Lakers basketball club for $67.5 million in 1979, you could sell them today for $10 billion.
If you invested $67.5 million in the S&P 500 in 1979, it would worth $10 billion today.
That’s about an annual compounded return of 12%.
June 18, 2025 Leave a comment
In the April 4, 2025 edition of my weekly Macro Extremes publication, Taiwan’s TAEIX equity index registered a quinella of oversold readings (a week prior to the broader April 7-9 lows) while also reverting down to a longer-term mean.
The TAIEX has risen 23% since then (over the past 10 weeks)…..
Momentarily, at today’s price (22,211), I think we’ve seen the ‘fat part’ of the trade as this advance looks like losing stream.
June 18, 2025
rob@karriasset.com.au
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