No shortage of investment ideas

Of all the stocks in my global universe of interest, it all feels like this is ‘the time’ to do your buying and get set in those businesses that you’ve been wanting to own……

and then, we wait !

October 16, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending October 10, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Danish and Korean 10 year government bond yields

Gold Volatility Index

Aluminium 

AUD/THB

GBP/JPY

USD/CAD

USD/INR

USD/JPY

USD/KRW

USD/SGD

DAX Index

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Cattle

Platinum *

CHF/JPY

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

AEX Index

CAC Index

Indonesia’s IDX Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35

Canada’s TSX 

Vietnam’s VN Index 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR *

S&P Biotech Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Cocoa (U.S.)

Cotton

JPY/USD

NZD/USD

USD/ZAR

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Indonesia 10 year government bond yield

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Cocoa (London)

Lithium Carbonate *

Rice *

Urea (Middle East)

Wheat

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell, again.

Japanese 5 year and Russian 10 year bond yield have risen for 5 weeks.

The U.S. 5 year minus U.S. inflation rate is staying close to oversold territory.

Equities had a lousy week.

A few equity indices left the overbought ranks.

The S&P 500, China’s FCATC, Hang Seng Index, Spain’s IBEX and the Nasdaq Composite were amongst those who fell and are not overbought this week.

Whilst many equity indices appear in the decliners category, many Asian indices rose for the week.

Egypts EGX has advanced for 5 weeks.

While South Africa’s SA40 and France’s CAC fell and snapped their 4 week winning streak.

AEX, KSE, PX and SOX all fell and broke their 5 week winning streaks.

While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 10 weeks.

Commodities were busy, again.

Palm Oil, Cattle, Palladium, Silver and Gold were amongst the notable gainers. 

Copper, Crude Oil, Cocoa, Coffee, Orange Juice, Tin, Urea and Rice dominated the losers category. 

Tin dropped out of overbought territory.

Palladium have mean reverted….upwards.

While Platinum fell and broke its 9 week winning streak.

Cattle, Cocoa, Urea and Wheat are new entrants to this weeks extremes.

Silver and Gold (across various currencies) have risen for 8 consecutive weeks.

The Copper/Gold Ratio fell.

Richards Bay Coal has slumped for 11 week consecutive weeks.

Cocoa is in a 8 week losing streak.

Middle Eastern Urea prices have sunk for 7 weeks

Rice has swooned for 6 weeks.

Corn and Wheat have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

And Oats have posted 12 losing weeks of the past 14.

Currencies were active, again.

We saw some changes with some pairs leaving and others joining the extreme list.

The Aussie exactly reversed last weeks action. It fell against all except the Yen.

The Brazilian Real rose 3% vs the USD.

In some resilience of the risk-off mood seen in equities, the CAD rose.

The Swiss Franc was mixed.

Yen was weaker and didn’t see any buying on the back of equity weakness.

GBP was mostly firmer.

The DXY rose 1.2% for the week and you’ll see many USD pairs in overbought territory.

The Thai Baht has fallen for 4 weeks versus the USD.

While the USD rose again the South African Rand and broke a 5 week losing streak.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Palm Oil 2.3%, Cattle 3.4%, JKM LNG in Yen 5.4%, Palladium 13.7%, Dutch TTF Gas 2.3%, Silver in AUD 6.8%, Silver in USD 4.8%, Gold in AUD 5.4%, Gold in ZAR 5%, Gold in other currencies rose between 3.4%-4.4%, BUX 1.5%, IDX 1.7%, TAIEX 2%, KOSPI 1.7%, Nikkei 225 5.1%, Nikkei 225 5.1%, NIFTY 1.6%, SENSEX 1.6%, TA35 2.4%, Vietnam 6.2% and the XBI Biotech ETF rose 1.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.9%), Rotterdam Coal (2.6%), Brent Crude Oil (2.8%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude Oil (3.3%), Copper (4.2%), Heating Oil (1.4%), Arabica Coffee (4.5%), Newcastle Coal (1.7%), Natural Gas (6.6%), Orange Juice (12.7%), Gasoline (2.2%), Sugar (2.3%), Tin (3.9%), CRB Index (2.2%), Gasoil (1.9%), Urea Middle East (3.3%), Uranium (2.4%), Corn (1.4%), Rice (3.9%), Wheat (3.3%), All World Developed ex USA (1.8%), AEX (2.2%), ATX (1.9%), KBW Banks (5%), CAC (2%), China A50 (4.9%), DJ Industrials (2.7%), DJ Transports (4.9%), FCATC (4.6%), MIB (2.8%), HSCEI (3.1%), Hang Seng (3.1%), BOVESPA (2.4%), S&P SmallCap 600 (4.8%), Russell 2000 (3.3%), Nasdaq Composite (2.5%), KRE Regional Banks (5.1%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), S&P MidCap 400 (3.8%), Mexico (2.3%), Nasdaq 100 (2.3%), SOX (2.7%), IGPA (2.3%), S&P 500 (2.4%), Nasdaq Transports (2.8%) and Canada’s TSX fell 2%.

 

October 12, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Coal as a store of wealth?

Is Coal the new Gold?

Can a lump of #coal be my ‘new money’?

#perspective

Since the April 2025 lows, the stock price of #Peabody Energy (BTU) has outperformed the price of #Gold by a factor of 10 and #Bitcoin by 4-fold.

October 6, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending October 3, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian and Italian 2 year government bond yields

Australian 3 year government bond yields

Chinese, Czech, South Korean and Swedish 10 year government bond yields 

AUD/SGD

AUD/THB

USD/CAD

USD/IDR *

AEX

CAC

HSCEI

And Switzerland’s SMI equity index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Platinum 

Tin

CHF/CAD

EUR/CAD

USD/INR

Shanghai Composite Index *  

CSI 300 *

All World Developed ex USA equity index

Egypt’s EGX Index

China’s FCATC *

Hang Seng Index

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Malaysia’s KLSE Index

Pakistan’s KSE Index * 

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index 

Nasdaq 100

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

S&P 500 

Canada’s TSX *  

Singapore’s Strait Times Index

Israel’s TA35

Canada’s TSX 

FTSE 100 

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Silver in AUD & USD *

Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, USD & ZAR

S&P Biotech Index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

None

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lithium Carbonate

Rice

CAD/CHF

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year government bond yield spread

Cocoa

Philippines PSE equity index 

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields were generally lower.

The Japanese yield curve and Russian 10’s have risen for 4 weeks.

U.S. 2’s are approaching ‘maximum pessimism’.

And Swiss 10 year bond yields rose from near oversold territory and broke a 5 week losing streak. Incidentally, they are yielding 0.28%, while the Swiss Franc has rallied 15% against most currencies.

Equities had a terrific week.

We see several more equity indices joining the overbought ranks.

The Russell 2000 is near the same membership.

Biotech’s had a monster week as did several indices such as Taiwan’s and Korea’s.

The TAIEX and Nikkei 225 have risen for 6 weeks.

Chile’s IGPA and IPSA indices fell enough for them to no longer be overbought.

The ASX Industrials rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.

South Africa’s SA40, the CAC and Egypts EGX have advanced for 4 weeks.

AEX, KSE, PX and SOX are in 5 week winning streaks.

While the ASX Small Caps stretches its winning streak to 9 weeks.

Commodities were busy with some broad gyrations.

Copper, Tin, Precious Metals and Lumber were amongst the notable gainers. 

Oils & Distillates, Coal, Gases, Shipping Rates, Oats & Lithium dominated the losers category. 

Lean Hogs and Uranium fell and they both dropped out of overbought territory.

The former broke a 7 week winning streak.

Lithium Carbonate and Cocoa return to oversold land.

While Copper rise, the Coper/Gold Ratio remains low, telling me that risk off sentiment in commodities is at odds to that of equities.

Gasoil fee and broke 4 consecutive weeks of advance.

U.S. Gulf urea prices rose and broke 9 weeks of decline.

Meanwhile, Middle Eastern urea has sunk for 6 weeks.x

Silver in AUD & USD along with Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, and ZAR are all in a 7 week rising streak.

Platinum has risen for 9 weeks.

Rice has fallen for 5 weeks.

Cocoa has declined for 7 weeks.

And Richards Bay Coal has slumped for 10 week consecutive weeks.

Currencies were active, again.

We saw some changes with some pairs leaving and others joining the extreme list.

The Aussie rose against all except the Yen.

The Loonie fell.

The British Pound was mixed.

Yen was stronger, thus breaking a few of the losing streaks posted in last weeks edition.

Swissie/Yen fell and broke a 6 week winning streak.

The USD has fallen for 5 weeks against the South African Rand,

And the Kiwi rose against the Aussie and broke an 8 week slump.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 2.4%, Copper 7.1%, Arabica Coffee 3.4%, Lumber 3.6%, Natural Gas 3.7%, Nickel 1.7%, Platinum 2.4%, Robusta Coffee 7.8%, Tin 8.9%, Silver in AUD 3.3%, Silver in USD 4.2%, Gold in AUD 2.5%, Gold in CAD 3.4%, Gold in CHF 3%, Gold in EUR 3%, Gold in GBP 2.8%, Gold in USD 3.4%, God in ZAR 1.8%, Shanghai Composite 1.4%, CSI 300 2%, All World Developed ex USA 2.6%, AEX 2.5%, ATX 2.2%, CAC 2.7%, DAX 2.7%, EGX 3.5%, FCATC 5.4%, MIB 1.4%, HSCEI 3.8%, Hang Seng 3.9%, IBB 7.1%, IBEX 1.5%, Russell 2000 1.9%, TAEIX 4.6%, KLSE 1.6%, KOSPI 4.8%, FTSE 250 2.4%, Nasdaq Biotechs 6.3%, Copenhagen 3.9%, Stockholm 3.2%, SMI 4.8%, SOX 4.4%, STI 3.4%, TA35 5.4%, TSX 2.4%, FTSE 100 2.2%, WIG 1.4%, XBI 5.8%, ASX Financials 3%, ASX 200 2.3%, ASX Materials 2.6%, ASX Industrials 2.8% and ASX Small Caps soared 3.9%. 

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (1.5%), Richards Bay Coal (2.5%), Rotterdam Coal (2.3%), Brent Crude Oil (6.8%), Baltic Dry Index (15.9%), WTI Crude Oil (7.4%), Cotton (1.7%), Lean Hogs (2.5%), Heating Oil (7.5%), JKM LNG (2.3%), LNG in Yen (5.4%), Lithium Carbonate (3.5%), Orange Juice (3.2%) Palladium (1.4%), Gasoline (6.5%), S&P GSCI (2.7%), CRB Index (1.9%), Dutch TTF Gas (5.1%), Gasoil (8.4%), Middle East Urea (1.7%), Uranium (1.8%), Oats (3.2%), Rice (1.2%), IDX (2.2%), BIST (2.6%) and the KBW Banks fell 2.2%. 

October 5, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Euro as a funding currency

I’m seeing Euro strength across a host of pairs.

While I think there is a little more upward travel, the Euro is closing on being full and it’s starting to appear in some of my overbought extreme metrics.

Soon, I’ll sell Euro and buy currencies such as the Yen, to fund some Japanese equity opportunities.

September 29, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Many assets have outperformed Gold

The Gold zealots are out again….

Over any time period for the past 5 years, many stocks have performed better than the price of Gold.

I’ve attached just one example comparing the stock price of Oracle vs USD Gold.

September 27, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au