Japanese bond yields have peaked

Currently, the Japanese 10 year bond is yielding 1.95%.

I think ~ 1.55% is the first stop.

Here is my drawing.

December 5, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending November 21, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve *

Czech, Danish and Japanese 10 year government bond yields

Japanese 30 year bond yields

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Index

Soybeans *

AUD/JPY *

CAD/JPY *

EUR/GBP

GBP/JPY

MYR/USD *

USD/DKK

USD/KRW

USD/SGD

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver

Gold

CHF/JPY

USD/INR

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

Chile’s IGSA *

Israel’s TA35 *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Korean 10 year government bond yields

EUR/JPY *

USD/JPY

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

Cattle

Nickel

EUR/USD

JPY/CAD

DAX Index

Norway’s OBX Index

And the ASX Financials

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Orange Juice

Sugar #16

Rice *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Chile 10 year government bond yield

JPY/EUR

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields fell.

The Aussie yield curve eased and broke its 4 straight weeks of higher rates.

As did Euro, Korean, and Swedish 10 year yields.

The Australian 10 year bond minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread has risen for 4 weeks and is nearly oversold.

And Czech, Kiwi and Japanese 10 year yields has climbed for 5 weeks.

Equities fell.

Several more equity indices left overbought territory such as the TAIEX, Nikkei 225, IBEX and the KOSPI.

Biotech’s added to its recent run higher.

The PX, STI, PSE and Bovespa fell and broke their winning streaks.

While Chile’s IGPA is in a 6 week winning streak.

Egypt’s EGX30 is working a 11 week winning steak.
Philippines’ PSE soared 7.4%, nearly erasing the 8.6% decline seen in the previous 4 weeks.

The FCATC, S&P MidCap 400, SET, ASX 200, ASX Industrials and the Russell 2000 are in 4 week losing streaks.

The latter has sunk 6% over that time.

And Chinese indices are at a 2 month low.

Commodities were subdued compared to past weeks.

Shipping Rates, Lithium Carbonate, Yen traded LNG and Robusta Coffee were the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Aluminium, Lumber, Palladium and Orange Juice dominated the losers category. 

Gasoline and Heating Oil fell, ending their winning streaks and no longer overbought.

Natural Gas have risen for 5 weeks and has soared 27% over that time.

Orange Juice has fallen for 4 weeks.

Cocoa and Lumber has declined for 5 weeks.

Cattle is in a 6 week losing streak. Readers will remember its recent overbought status.

And Lean Hogs have slumped for 8 weeks.

Currencies moved in stealth mode.

There are a quirky bunch of pairs appearing in this week extreme list.

The Aussie fell.

BRL/USD fell and broke its 5 week winning streak.

The Loonie rose.

The Swissie was weaker.

We saw a mixed Euro

A firmer USD and British Pound.

MYR/USD and EUR/GBP fell and broke their 4 week climb.

And Bitcoin (in USD) has fallen for 4 straight weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 6.8%, LNG in Yen 7.6%, Lithium Carbonate 4.1%, Robusta Coffee 6.7%, IBB biotechs 2%, NBO biotechs 1.5%, PSE 7.4%, IGPA 2.2% and the S&P XBI biotech ETF rose 2.3%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Aluminium (3.3%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (1.5%), Brent Crude (2.8%), Cocoa (5.5%), WTI Crude (3.3%), Palm Oil (1.8%), Heating Oil (3.6%), Lumber (3.9%), Orange Juice (9.9%), Palladium (2.8%), Platinum (2.6%), Gasoline (6.2%), S&P GSCI (2.3%), CRB Index (2.2%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.4%), Gasoil (4.6%), Uranium (2%), Shanghai Composite (3.9%), CSI 300 (3.8%), All World Developed ex-USA (3.2%), AEX (2.7%), CAC (2.3%), China A50 (2.1%), DAX (3.3%), DJ Industrials (2%), FCATC (6.8%), MIB (3%), HSCEI (5.1%), Hang Seng (5.1%), IBEX (3.2%), Bovespa (1.9%), TAIEX (3.5%), Nasdaq Composite (2.7%), KOSPI (4%), FTSE 250 (2.1%), Nasdaq 100 (3.1%), Nikkei 225 (3.5%), OBX (1.9%), Helsinki (3.1%), Stockholm (2.1%), PX (2%), SA40 (2.3%), SOX (5.9%), S&P 500 (2%), STI (1.7%), TA35 (2.2%), FTSE 100 (1.6%), WIG (2.5%), ASX Financials (2.9%), ASX 200 (2.5%), ASX Materials (4%), ASX Industrials (1.8%) and the ASX Small Caps fell 3.6%.

November 23, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Biotech’s run is full

The circles in the attached study coincide when the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI US) were mentioned in my weekly Macro Extremes publication.

Back in April 2025 it was identifying a buying extreme.

Now, the signal says “Sell”.

The fat part of this trade equates to at least a 44% return.

November 23, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending November 14, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian government bond yield curve

Norwegian 10 year government bond yields

Bloomberg Commodity Index

Heating Oil

Gasoline

S&P Commodity Index

Gasoil *

Corn

Soybeans *

AUD/GBP

AUD/JPY

CAD/JPY

CHF/AUD

CLP/USD

EUR/GBP

USD/KRW

Dow Jones Industrials

MIB Index

SMI Index

And Poland’s WIG Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver

Gold

EUR/JPY *

MYR/USD

Shanghai Composite *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGSA *

Canada’s TSX

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Korean 10 year government bond yields

CHF/JPY

COP/USD

Egypt’s EGX Index *

Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index

Finland’s OMXH

Czechia’s PX Index

Israel’s TA35

And Britain’s FTSE 100

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Bitcoin

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread

Chilean 2 & 10 year government bond yield

EUR/CHF

GBP/AUD

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Sugar #16

Rice *

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Philippine’s PSE equity index

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose, again, again.

The Aussie yield curve has risen for 4 straight weeks.

As has the Czech, Euro, Japanese, Korean, Kiwi and Swedish 10 year yields.

The Polish 10 year bond yield rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

Equities has a bias for higher prices, except for the small and mid caps.

Many equity indices moved into quinella overbought territory.

Biotech’s had a good week.

The PX and STI indices have risen for 4 weeks.

The BOVESPA and Chile’s IGPA are in a 5 week winning streak.

The former has risen 9% over that time.

Egypt’s EGX30 is on a 10 week tear.

Inversely, the KSE and PSE have slumped for 4 consecutive weeks.
Philippines’ PSE has declined 8.6% in those 4 weeks.

While the Russell 2000 has fallen 5% over the last 3 weeks.

Vietnam and the ASX Small Caps rose and broke their 4 weeks losing streak.

Canada’s TSX returns to being overbought.

While the S&P 500 rose 0.1% for the week.

Commodities were active.

Natural Gas, Sugar, Silver, Oats and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Cocoa, Coffee, Lumber and Orange Juice dominated the losers category. 

Palm Oil rose and broke its 4 week losing streak.

Heating Oil and Natural Gas have risen for 4 weeks.

Gasoline has climbed for 5 straight weeks.

Lumber has declined for 4 weeks.

Lean Hogs have slumped for 7 weeks.

Natural Gas has soared 27% over the past 4 weeks.

And Platinum & Sugar rose and broke its 5weeks of weakness.

Currencies were quieter.

Aussie rose against all except versus ZAR.

BRL/USD is in a 5 week winning streak.

The Loonie fell against everyone except the Yen.

The Euro was firmer against all except the Swissie.

The Yen fell.

Moreover, the JPY/USD is nearing a quinella oversold reading.

The USD fell.

And MYR/USD and EUR/GBP have risen for 4 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Copper 2.1%, Heating Oil 2.1%, JKM LNG 2.8%, Lithium Carbonate 2.2%, Tin 2.4%, Natural Gas 5.8%, Palladium 1.7%, Gasoline 3%, Sugar 5.3%, Gasoil 2.9%, Urea 2.7%, Silver 4.7%, Gold 2.1%, Oats 5%, Rice 1.9%, All World Developed ex USA 1.6%, ATX 2.1%, CAC 2.8%, DAX 1.3%, MIB 2.5%, HSCEI 1.4%, Hang Seng 1.3%, IBB 4.1%, IBEX 2.8%, BOVESPA 2.4%, KOSPI 1.5%, NBI 4.2%, Nifty 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, Helsinki 1.3%, PX 2.2%, SA40 3.1%, Sensex 1.6%, SMI 2.7%, TA35 3%, Vietnam 2.3%, XBI 4.6% and the ASX Materials rose 3.8%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richard Bay Coal (1.9%), Cocoa (11.6%), Cotton (1.5%), Arabica Coffee (2.9%), Lumber (6.5%), Nickel (1.3%), Orange Juice (6.8%), Robusta Coffee (9.1%), FCATC (2.8%), Russell 2000 (1.6%), Mexico (1.7%), PSE (3%), SET (2.6%), SOX (2%), Nasdaq Transports (2.5%), ASX Financials (4.9%) and the ASX 200 fell 1.5%.

November 16, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

Happy Birthday Vida & Morty !

I feel a correlation coming on

My work tells me that this week Bitcoin (as priced in USD) entered a new medium term downward trend.

The study below overlays Bitcoin’s price with that of the S&P 500.

November 13, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Chinese equities to retrace

Greetings this week from Shanghai and Xi’an,

there is no inflation in China,

food and services are cheap,

but that decline (and current ebb) in Chinese inflation and bond yields have provided the Shanghai Composite with a boost.

Now, I expect the Chinese inflation rate to makes it way back to the 1.8% mark (from its current 0.2%) and in turn, we should see the broader Chinese equity indices take a breather.

November 12, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending November 7, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 2 & 3 year government bond yields *

Czech 10 year government bond yields

Aluminium *

DXY Index *

Soybeans *

EUR/GBP

GBP/USD

MYR/USD

USD/CHF

USD/DKK

USD/KRW

USD/SGD

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver in AUD and USD *

Gasoil

Gold in CAD & GBP *

EUR/JPY *

Shanghai Composite *

CSI 300 *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Finland’s OMXH *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

South Africa’s SA40 *

Chile’s IGSA *

Israel’s TA35 *

FTSE 100 *

And the S&P Biotech ETF *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Korean 10 year government bond yields

Brazil’s BOVESPA equity index

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Nickel (MCX) *

CHF/USD

EUR/USD

Philippine’s PSE equity index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber *

Lithium Carbonate *

Lithjium Hydroxide

Sugar #16

Urea (Middle East) *

Rice *

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Sugar *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose, again.

The British yield curve rose and broke its 5 weeks of advance.

U.S. 3 month bill yields have fallen 8 weeks.

And Polish 10 year yields have fallen for 6 weeks.

Equities were mixed, with a bias for weakness.

The Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, the KSE and Canada’s TSX left overbought territory.

The BUX, KOSPI and Finland’s OMXH fell and snapped 5 week winning streaks.
The biotech indices broke their 7 weeks of advance.

Brazil’s BOVESPA and Chile’s IGPA have a 4 week winning streak.

The former has risen 9% over that time.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 9 weeks.

TAIEX broke its 10 week winning streak.

Vietnam and the ASX Small Caps have fallen for 4 weeks.

Philippines’ PSE index is oversold mimicking the same for its currency.

Canada’s TSX broke a 12 week streak of being overbought.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 9 of the past 11 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Heating Oil, Shipping Rates, Coffee and Distillates were amongst the notable gainers. 

Copper, Cotton, Crude Oil, Palladium, Urea, Uranium dominated the losers category. 

Gold eased slightly that it’s no longer overbought in various currencies.

Platinum and Sugar have fallen for 5 weeks.

Natural Gas has soared 21% over the past 3 weeks.

And Lean Hogs have fallen for 6 weeks.

Currencies were busy.

The CAD and AUD fell and last week’s overbought pairs are no longer.

The Euro and Yen rose.

The British Pound was mixed.

BRL/USD is in a 4 week winning streak.

And the PHP/USD is nearly oversold.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Baltic Dry Index 7%, North Euro Steel 2.5%, Heating Oil 3.5%, Arabica Coffee 4%, Newcastle Coal 2.6%, Natural Gas 4.6%, Gasoline 2.1%, Robusta Coffee 2.4%, Gasoil 5.9%, IDX 2.8%, DJ Transports 2%, EGX 4.4%, BOVESPA 3%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, IGPA 1.9% and the TA 35 rose 1.9%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (1.8%), Aluminium (1,6%), Brent Crude Oil (1.8%), Cocoa (2.2%), WTI Crude Oil (2%), Cotton (2.9%), Palm Oil (2.3%), Lean Hogs (2.3%), Copper (2.6%), Cattle (3.6%), Lithium Carbonate (4%), Tin (1.6%), Orange Juice (1.9%), Palladium (3.6%), Platinum (1.7%), Sugar (2.3%), Iron Ore (3.6%), Urea U.S. Gulf (1.7%), Urea Middle East (5.8%), Uranium (6.7%), Rice (2.8%), AEX (2.1%), DAX (1.6%), Russell 2000 (1.9%), TAIEX (2.1%), Nasdaq Composite (3%), KOSPI (3.7%), FTSE 250 (1.8%), Nasdaq Biotech (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (3.1%), Nikkei 225 (4.1%), OMX-H (1.7%), PSE (2.9%), SOX (3.9%), S&P 500 (1.6%), XBI Biotech (3.3%), ASX Materials (3%), ASX Industrials (2%) and the ASX Small Caps (3.8%).

November 9, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au 

A quinella of overbought’s for Platinum was a warning

3 weeks ago, my weekly ‘Macro Extremes’ note listed Platinum (amongst a few others) as registering a quinella of overbought tendencies.

Macro Extremes (week ending October 17, 2025)

That was $200 (or 11%) above todays price.

If you’re not in the business of ‘shorting’, this alert should have made the poor sod who bought Platinum that week, think twice or thrice.

November 4, 2025

rob@karriasset.com.au

Macro Extremes (week ending October 31, 2025)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities. 

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean. 

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion 

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 2 & 3 year government bond yields

Korean 10 year government bond yields

U.S. 5 year minus U.S. 3 month yield spread

Aluminium *

DXY Index

Soybeans

AUD/EUR

AUD/GBP

AUD/JPY

AUD/THB

CAD/JPY

EUR/GBP

GBP/JPY *

USD/JPY *

IDX 30

FTSE 250 *

WIG

And the ASX Financials index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Silver in AUD and USD *

Gold in CAD & GBP

CAD/JPY *

EUR/JPY *

Shanghai Composite *

CSI 300 *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Egypt’s EGX Index *

IBB biotech ETF *

Spain’s IBEX *

Taiwan’s TAIEX *

Nasdaq Composite *

Pakistan’s KSE Index *

Nasdaq Biotech Index *

Nasdaq 100

Czechia’s PX Index *

South Africa’s SA40 *

S&P 500

Chile’s IPSA

Israel’s TA35

Canada’s TSX *

FTSE 100 *

S&P Biotech ETF *

And the ASX Small Cap Index * 

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Aluminium (LME) *

South Korea’s KOSPI *

Japan’s Nikkei 225 *

Finland’s OMXH *

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Australian 10 year minus Australian 2 year bond yield spread

Australian 10 year minus Australian 5 year bond yield spread

Chilean 2 year bond yield

British 2, 3, 5 & 10 year bond yields

Nickel (MCX)

GBP/USD

JPY/CAD *

JPY/USD

PHP/USD

USD/CNH

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

U.S. 3 month bill yield *

Richards Bay Coal *

Lumber

Lithium Carbonate

Urea (Middle East) *

Rice *

JPY/EUR *

NZD/AUD *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

Sugar *

Notes & Ideas: 

Government bond yields mostly rose.

The British yield curve along with Polish 10’s have fallen for 5 weeks.

U.S. 3 month bill yields have fallen 7 weeks.

U.S, 10’s, 20’s and inflation break-even spreads rose and broke 4 weeks of decline.

U.S. 30’s rose and broke a 5 weeks losing streak.

And U.S. Corporate BB rated and 5-7 year investment grade paper remain close to being oversold.

Equities were mixed.

Some new names joined the overbought list.

The BUX, KOSPI and Finland’s OMXH are in a 5 week winning streak.

The Nifty and the Sensex fell and broke 4 weeks of advance.
The biotech indices have risen for 7 weeks.

Egypt’s EGX has advanced for 8 weeks.

TAIEX has climbed for 10 weeks.

The SOX closed higher for 7 of the past 8 weeks.

While the Nikkei 225 has risen for 9 of the past 10 weeks.

Commodities were active.

Natural Gas, Uranium, Soybean and Wheat were amongst the notable gainers. 

Palm Oil, Cocoa, Lumber, Orange Juice and Sugar dominated the losers category. 

Platinum, Palladium & Gold (across various currencies) left overbought territory.

The former has declined for 4 weeks.

Sugar is in 4 week losing streak and registers an oversold quinella.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 5 weeks.

Rice rose and snapped 8 weeks of losses.

And Lumber has sunk 15% in the past fortnight.

Currencies were busy.

Various AUD and JPY pairs a featuring in this week’s list of extremes.

The Aussie and Loonie rose, again.

The Euro and Yen were weaker.

While the USD firmed slightly.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Aluminium 1.5%, Newcastle Coal 2.1%, Natural Gas 7.8%, Gasoline 1.7%, Uranium 7%, Corn 2%, Rice 1.5%, Soybean 5.2%, Wheat 4.2%, BUX 3%, DJ Transports 2.8%, MIB 1.6%, IBB 2.7%, BOVESPA 2.3%, TAIEX 2.6%, Nasdaq Composite 2.7%, KOSPI 4.2%, Mexico 2.7%, NBI 3.4%, Nasdaq 100 2%, Nikkei 225 6.3%, Helsinki 1.6%, PX 1.8%, SOX 3.6%, IGPA 2.6%, TA35 2.3% and XBI biotech ETF rose 4%.

The group of largest decliners from the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (1.9%), Rotterdam Coal (1.5%), Cocoa (2.7%), Palm Oil (4.9%), JKM LNG (1.8%), Arabica Coffee (2.7%), Lumber (8.7%), Cattle (1.8%), JKM LNG in Yen (2%), Orange Juice (8.5%), Palladium (1.8%), Platinum (1.7%), Sugar (3.6%), Dutch TTF Gas (3.6%), Gold in AUD (3.2%), Gold in CAD (2.6%), Gold in CHF (1.6%), Gold in EUR (2%), Gold in USD (2.7%), Gold in ZAR (2.3%), Oats (6.2%), China A50 (1.8%), HSCEI (2.1%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.8%), Russell 2000 (1.3%), KRE Regional Banks (2%), FTSE 250 (1.5%) and the ASX Industrial Index fell 1.5%.

November 2, 2025 

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au