A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.
The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.
n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month.
* denotes multiple week inclusion
Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Austrian, Australian, Danish, Spanish, Greece, Indian, Dutch, Norwegian and Swedish 10 year bond yields
U.S. 5 year bond yield minus U.S. 3 month bill yield spread
U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 2 year bond yield spread
Australian Coking Coal
AUD/CHF *
AUD/EUR *
AUD/USD
CLP/USD *
THB/USD
Austria’s ATX equity index *
Dow Jones Transports *
S&P MidCap 400
Copenhagen’s OMX
Nasdaq Transports *
Overbought (RSI > 70)
Australian 10 year minus U.S. 10 year bond yield spread *
The Euro bond yield curve
Korean 10 year government bond yield *
Silver in AUD
Gold in AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP & USD
AUD/JPY *
CAD/JPY
CHF/JPY
CNH/USD *
EUR/JPY *
GBP/JPY *
Hungary’s BUX Index *
Indonesia’s IDX Composite *
Egypt’s EGX Index *
IBB biotech ETF *
Spain’s IBEX
Brazil’s BOVESPA
Taiwan’s TAEIX
Pakistan’s KSE Index *
South Korea’s KOSPI *
Nasdaq Biotech Index *
Czechia’s PX Index *
South Africa’s SA40 equity index *
Chile’s IGPA *
Singapore’s Strait Times Index
Israel’s TA35 *
Canada’s TSX equity index *
The S&P Biotech ETF *
And Australia’s ASX Materials Index
The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean)
Australian 2, 3 and 5 year government bond yields
Euro 20 and 30 year bond yields
Japanese 2, 5 and 10 year government bond yields *
Tin
Silver in USD *
AUD/INR *
MYR/USD*
USD/INR *
U.S. KBW Bank Index
Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations)
Belgian and Finnish 10 year government bond yields
Lithium Hydroxide *
Dutch TTF Gas *
CHF/AUD *
USD/MXN
USD/SEK
Oversold (RSI < 30)
Chilean 10 year government bond yield *
U.S. 10 year minus the Australian 10 year bond yield spread *
U.S. 10 year bond yield divided by Australian 10 year yield spread
Richards Bay Coal *
Lumber *
Sugar #16 *
Urea (U.S. gulf)
Rice *
The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean)
None
Notes & Ideas:
Government bond yields rose, again.
Except for short dated U.S. paper and the British yield curve.
Swiss 10’s soared.
A bunch of new bond yields appear in this weeks list.
The Australian, Euro and Japanese yield curves are overbought.
Kiwi 10 year yields have climbed for 8 weeks,
Whilst Japanese 10 year yield fell slightly, which ends its 7 week rising streak.
Turkish 10 year yields have fallen for 4 weeks, as have U.S. 3 month bills.
And the U.S. 2 year bond is yielding less than the U.S. 3 month bill.
Equities had a slightly higher bias.
More indices joined the overbought extreme list.
While most indices closed either +/- 1% from last week but intra-week there were gyrations.
Brazil’s Bovespa returns overbought territory.
U.S. Regional Bank Index and the Nasdaq Transportation Index have risen for 4 weeks.
Vietnam, the Sensex and XBI biotech ETF fell and broke their 4 weeks of advance.
Chile’s IGPA is in a 9 week winning streak.
Commodities were mixed, again.
Cocoa, Orange Juice, Platinum, Silver and Tin were the notable gainers.
Shipping Rates, Oil, Gases and Distillates, Oats and Palm Oil dominated the losers category.
Natural Gas tanked 22% and erased half of the 39% gain seen in the previous 7 week winning streak.
The Baltic Dry Index also fell hard, wiping 19% of the 34% seen in the 5 week winning streak.
U.S. Gulf Urea prices rose and snapped 5 weeks of decline.
Rice is in a 4 week losing streak.
Wheat has slumped for 6 weeks.
And the Copper/Gold Ratio looks like it’s about to change direction in trend.
Currencies were active.
The Yen’s weakness sees various pairs such as against the CAD & GBP is a 5 week losing streak.
The Aussie fell except against the INR, JPY and USD.
Against the Yen, the Aussie is overbought for the first time since July 2024.
The Loonie was firmer.
The Swissie rose.
Euro as stronger, reversing last weeks weakness.
And the USD/Chinese Yuan is oversold.
The larger advancers over the past week comprised of;
Cocoa 10.2%, Lean Hogs 3.6%, Lumber 3.4%, Lithium Carbonate 1.9%, Tin 3.4%, Orange Juice 12%, Palladium 2.7%, Platinum 6.1%, Sugar 2%, Uranium 2.6%, Silver in AUD 5.9%, Silver in USD 6.1%, Gold rose between 1.5% – 2.4% across various currencies, All Word Developed ex USA 1%, KBW Banks 3.6%, DJ Transports 1.9%, BOVESPA 2.2%, S&P Small Cap 600 2.1%, Russell 2000 1.2%, KRE Regional Banks 1.7%, KOSPI 1.6%, Copenhagen 2.3%, PSE 1.5%, PX 1.7%, S&P 600 2%, TA35 3.6%, Nasdaq Transports 2.3%, WIG 3.5%, ASX Financials 1.7%, ASX Materials 2.8% and Türkiye’s BIST rose 2.8%.
The group of largest decliners from the week included;
Aluminium (1.7%), Bloomberg Commodity Index (2.7%), Brent Crude (4.1%), Baltic Dry Index (19.1%), WTI Crude Oil (4.4%), Palm Oil (3.2%), Copper (1.9%), Heating Oil (7%), JKM LNG (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (3.8%), Newcastle Coal (2.4%), Natural Gas (22.2%), Nickel (2.5%), Gasoline (4.5%), Robusta (4%), S&P GSCI (3.4%), CRB Index (2.5%), Gasoil (6.9%), Oats (7.3%), Soybeans (2.6%), HSCEI (1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (1.6%), Nasdaq 100 (1.9%), SET (1.5%), SOX (3.6%), S&P 500 (0.6%) and Vietnam fell 5.4%.
December 14, 2025
By Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 