Macro Extremes (week ending September 18, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian and Czech 10-year government bond yields *

Chilean 10’s minus 2’s yield spread

U.S. high yield and BB Index *

Heating Oil *

Oats

And Portugal’s PSI Index

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10-year bond yield *

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields *

Australian Coking Coal

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

JKM LNG in $ *

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread *

Gasoline *

Dutch TTF Gas *

Gasoil and its crack spread *

AUD/CHF *

CNH/USD *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Norway’s OBX *

Singapore’ Strait Times Index

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Belgian, Canadian, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Dutch and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields

The U.S. and EU yield curves (except for the 30’s)

TBX

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

NZD/AUD

Türkiye’s BIST Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

Lean Hogs

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

IEF & IEI

SHY

U.S. 10 year minus U.S. 5-year bond yield spread

U.S. 30 year minus U.S. 10-year bond yield spread

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields were mixed but several fell enough to see them drop out from overbought extremes.

British 2 year and Japanese 5-year bond yields are in 4-week winning streaks.

Indian 10 year and U.S. 2- and 3-year bond yields have climb for 5 weeks.

Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, Finnish, French, Greek, Italian, Polish, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year yields have risen for 6 consecutive weeks.

As have the British 3’s, Euro 2’s and 5’s along with the U.S. 5- and 7-year yields and the U.S. 5-year bond minus 3-month bill yield spread.

While the U.S. 10 minus 5-year yield spread and the IEI ETF have closed lower for the past 5 weeks.

Equities were mostly weaker.

Malaysia’s KLSE and Mexico’s IPC have fallen for the past 4 weeks.

The Dow Jones Transports, FCATC, S&P Small Cap 600 and TSX have declined for 5 weeks.

The CSI 300, CAC 40, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 6-week losing streaks.

Brazil’s Bovespa has advanced for the past 5 weeks.

And Norway’s OBX is in a 10-week winning streak.

Commodities prices told a mixed story.

Many commodities left the extreme list.

Distillates, Gases, Copper, Oats, Silver and Gold were the notable gainers.

Coal, Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Sugar and Rice were amongst the largest decliners.

Rice and Gasoline fell and snapped 4 weeks of higher prices.

U.S. Gulf Urea prices have climbed for 5 weeks.

JKM LNG and Dutch TTF fell and broke their 5-week winning streaks.

Gasoline and the Gasoil Oil crack spread are in 6-week winning streaks.

And Tin has fallen for 5 weeks.

Currencies were quiet, again.

The Aussie eeked out small gains except vs. the USD

The Loonie was unchanged to weaker.

Euro was weaker, as did the Yen.

The Yen weakness saw it find relief from its ‘extremes’.

The Kiwi is in a 4-week losing streak against the AUD & USD.

The USD was strong and looking so.

Its advance was enough to see it snap its 4-week losing streak against the Korean Won.

And the PHP/USD has fallen for 6 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 2.6%, Copper 2.2%, Heating Oil 1.9%, Natural Gas 2.9%, Gasoline 4.1%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.9%, Gasoil 2%, Silver 3%, Gold 1,5%, Oats 7.3%, Gasoil crack spread 2.7%, Heating Oil crack spread 3.2%, Gasoline crack spread 14.3%, TAIEX 2.2%, Nikkei 225 1.6%, IGPA 1.4%, TA35 1.6% and the ASX Small Caps rose 1.3%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Richards Bay Coal (2.1%), Rotterdam Coal (1.4%), Baltic Dry Index (3.9%), Cocoa (10.6%), Cotton (5.7%), Hogs (4.2%), JKM LNG (4.2%), Arabica Coffee (1.8%), Lumber (5.6%), Cattle (1.7%), JKM LNG in Yen (4.4%), Lithium Carbonate (1.9%), Lithium Hydroxide (2.2%), Newcastle Coal (3.1%), Orange Juice (3%), Robusta Coffee (3.7%), Sugar (4.4%), Rice (2.4%), Wheat (1.5%), All World Developed ex USA (1.6%), ATX (1.3%), KBW Banks Index (4.9%), CAC (1.4%), IDX (1.5%), DJ Industrials (1.9%), DJ Transports (2.7%), Saudi Tadawal (2.2%), MIB (1.8%), IBEX (1.6%), S&P SmallCap 600 (2.3%), Dublin (1.7%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), KRE (1.6%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.8%), PSE (3.4%), PX (2.3%), SA40 (2.3%), Eurostoxx 50 (1.4%), BIST (8.2%) and Nasdaq Transports fell 3.3%.

September 20, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au