Interest Rates have a new base

The two tales I am telling about interest rates and the cost of money are 1) that in the nearer term, I expect rates to trade sideways to slightly lower (see digestion and consolidation) but 2) in the longer term, they are settling in and working their way higher from a base than seen over the past 15-18 years.

I am seeing ‘shapes’ in interest and inflation rates, last observed in 1965.

Here is a picture of the U.S. 30 year mortgage rate.

October 6, 2026