Picking out the cheap commodities

I am constructively bullish about commodity prices, however that opinion is not broad nor blindly so.

I’m working on how to express my best ‘absolute’ view in a specific commodity or theme. Buying scarcity and those who have capacity will be a key criteria.

I remind myself that commodities can trade sideways (as Rio Tinto did for 7 years) and the broader CRB Index had for a 10 year bear market.

While I find analysis on a ‘relative basis’ irksome, commodities are nearing another visit to being inexpensive relative to equities, as the CRB Index to Wilshire 5000 chart shows.

September 19, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski


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