Sounds like the 1991 Baghdad bombings

In January 1991, I was in Seattle, when we were taking batting practice in the cages, just when our head baseball coach came barreling around the corner in his Ford Bronco. He jumped out of the car and said; “Holy Shit”, we’re bombing Baghdad”.

He declared practice over and sent everyone home. 

Being Australian, I wasn’t too perturbed and asked another coach if he could stay back with me to throw me some extra balls to hit.

90 minutes later, I arrive back at my apartment to find my room (and team) mates on their way to drunkenness as they watched the bombardment on CNN.

They were already talking about moving to Canada as rumours of reinstating compulsory military service were spreading.

Today’s media noise about Russia, Ukraine, NATO, the U.N. and the United States sounds just like the ‘noise’ I was hearing when Iraq was invading Kuwait and then the U.S. (and coalition) started their bombing campaign.

Wikipedia says, “The Gulf War was a war waged by coalition forces from 35 nations led by the United States against Iraq in response to Iraq’s invasion and annexation of Kuwait arising from oil pricing and production disputes.”

Incidentally, it was also believed that the coalition forces also commenced the bombings in order to protect Saudi Arabia.

That extensive aerial bombing campaign lasted from 17 January 1991 to 23 February 1991.

Ironically, on the day the campaign began, WTI Crude Oil rose 6.4%.

Over the next 32 days, the price of Oil then fell 44%.

(funnily shares in companies such as Exxon and Occidental rose 10% through this time)

The U.S. 10 year bond yield fell from 8.2% to 7.7%

and the S&P 500 rose 20%

It’s not exactly the same, but it kind of ‘rhymes’. 

What is telling at this moment, is that it doesn’t seem that the U.S., NATO or any coalition is about to fly in and defend Ukraine let alone bomb Moscow or St. Petersburg. 

It’s more telling that they are using stern words of “condemnation’ and rolling waves of sanctions instead.

With that, Zelensky may tip his King (chess piece) over because there isn’t a larger army coming up behind him.

For the statistic fans, Moscow and St. Petersburg are Europe’s 2nd and 4th most populous cities.

Istanbul is 1st, London 3rd, Berlin is 5th, Madrid 6th and Kyiv and Rome shares 7th and 8th place.

February 24, 2022

by Rob Zdravevski

rob@karriasset.com.au