Still fancy commodities, but it’s in the timing

I like the ‘long’ commodity trade, particularly the ‘harder commodities’, but the beginning of the upward move began more than a year ago, and it wouldn’t have hurt to have gotten set earlier than that.

You’ll see an example of that in the chart of the Van Eck Australian Resource ETF pasted below.

At the beginning of the decade, I was a commodity bear and then in mid- 2023, I started writing about my ‘warming’ to commodities.

Commodity bullishness – illustrated

Now, I’m looking for a retracement.

Recently, cartwheels and backflips were being done when BHP’s share price was heralded as the largest capitalised company on the ASX.

Anyway, I think BHP’s stock price can decline at least 30% from its recent peak.

September 11, 2026

rob@karriasset.com.au