Macro Extremes (week ending September 11, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Austrian, Belgian, Spanish, Greek, Irish, Kiwi and Portuguese 10-year government bond yields

British yield curve except the 30’s

U.S. high yield and BB Index

Richards Bay Coal

Rotterdam Coal

WTI Crude

North American Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 2, 5 and 10-year bond yield *

U.S. 5-year bond yield minus 5-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

U.S. 10-year bond yield minus 10-year inflation breakeven rate spread *

JKM LNG in $ *

Rice *

Heating Oil crack spread *

AUD/CHF *

CNH/USD *

COP/USD

Austria’s ATX Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index

Norway’s OBX *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Belgian, Canadian, Danish, Finnish, French, Italian and Dutch 10-year government bond yields

The Australian, EU, U.S. yield curve (except for the 30’s)

U.S. 5–7-year corporate bond yields

TBX

Heating Oil *

JKM LNG in Yen *

Gasoline *

Sugar *

Dutch TTF Gas

Gasoil *

Gasoil crack spread *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

SHY

AUD/JPY

CAD/JPY *

CHF/AUD *

EUR/JPY *

GBP/JPY

USD/JPY

FCATC Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

USD/KRW *

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

CHF/JPY *

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields saw the most action and rose, again except for Brazilian 10’s.

Indian 10 year and U.S. 2- and 3-year bond yields have climb for 4 weeks.

Austrian, Belgian, Czech, Danish, Spanish, EU curve, Finnish, French, British curve, Greek, Irish, Italian, Dutch, Polish, Portuguese and Swedish 10-year yields have risen for 5 consecutive weeks.

As have the U.S. 5- and 7-year yields.

Australian 3-, 5- and 10-year yields, along with Japanese 2’s are in a 6-week winning streaks.

While the U.S. 30 minus 10-year yield spread has closed lower for the past 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

The Dow Jones Transports, S&P Small Cap 600 and TSX have declined for 4 weeks.

The CSI 300, CAC 40, China A50, FCATC, Nifty, Sensex and Nasdaq Transports are in 5-week losing streaks.

Brazil’s Bovespa has advanced for the past 4 weeks.

And Norway’s OBX is in a 9-week winning streak.

Commodities prices told a mixed story.

Coal, Oil, Distillates, Gases, Sugar and Rice were the notable gainers.

Cocoa, Cotton, Coffee, Lithium, Palladium, and Corn were amongst the largest decliners.

Many streaks came to an end while,

Rice and U.S. Guld Urea prices have climbed for 4 weeks.

JKM LNG, Gasoline, Dutch TTF and the Gasoil Oil crack spread are in 5-week winning streaks.

And Tin has fallen for 4 weeks.

Currencies were quieter.

The Aussie was mixed but mainly took a breather.

mainly higher.

AUD/EUR fell and broke a 5-week winning streak.

The Euro and Yen rose.

The latter features in this week’s list.

Kiwi was weaker.

The U.S. Dollar saw strength.

While the USD/KRW has fallen for 4 weeks.

And the PHP/USD has fallen for 5 weeks.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Bloomberg Commodity Index 1.7%, Brent Crude 8.7%, WTI Crude 9.4%, Heating Oil 9.2%, JKM LNG 3.6%, Lumber 1.6%, Cattle 3.2%, JKM LNG in Yen 12.8%, Gasoline 2.9%, Robusta Coffee 2.8%, S&P GSCI 2.2%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.5%, Urea U.S. Gulf 1.8%, Gasoil 12.9%, Oats 2.8%, Gasoil crack 11.1%, Heating Oil crack 7.6%, BUX 3.2%, Kospi 3.3%, Helsinki 1.3% and BIST rose 3.3%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Australian Coking Coal (2.6%), Aluminium (1.9%), Baltic Dry Index (3.3%), Cocoa (3.7%), EHR (1.9%), Palm Oil (2.3%), Copper (2%), Arabica Coffee (3.4%), Lithium Carbonate (2.8%), Newcastle Coal (3.3%), Natural Gas (4.8%), Nickel (2.3%), Orange Juice (7%), Palladium (5.7%), Platinum (1.6%), Tin (2.7%), Silver (2.6%), Gold (1.8%), Gasoline crack (8%), Naphtha (7.1%), ZEX (1.3%), IDX (1.4%), DAX (1.8%), DJ Industrials (1.8%), FCATC (3.1%), HSCEI (3.6%), Hang Seng (3.3%), IBB (4.2%), S&P SmallCap 600 2.2%, KRE (1.8%), KSE (2.8%), FTSE 250 (2.5%), S&P MidCap 400 (1.9%), Mexico (1.5%), NBI (4.3%), Nikkei 225 (1.6%), Nifty (2.1%), Copenhagen (2.5%), Russell 2000 (2.4%), Sensex (2.3%), SMI (4.3%), IGPA (1.9%), STI (1.8%), Nasdaq Transports (1.8%), TSX (2.2%), FTSE 100 (1.7%), Vietnam (3.1%), XBI (4.7%), ASX Financials (2.3%), ASX 200 (2.9%), ASX Materials (3.9%) and ASX Small Caps fell 3%.

September 13, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au