How The World Works – edition # 1
October 7, 2021 Leave a comment
A cryptic pondering of how things may go down.
Winter in Europe is approaching,
Russia has a lot of gas,
Europe doesn’t have enough gas,
European gas prices have quadrupled in a month,
The Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline is not commissioned,
The pipeline runs from Russia 🇷🇺 into Germany 🇩🇪 via the Baltic Sea,
It has been completed but it hasn’t been turned on yet,
Germany has until January 8th to certify Nord Stream 2,
Merkel is no longer chancellor of Germany,
The new chancellor hasn’t been confirmed,
In the meantime, Russia has started filling the pipeline for inventory and pressure,
The pipeline is owned by Gazprom,
although Gazprom is listed, the Russian Federation owns 51% of Gazprom,
Equities in Russia (Gazprom) oil and gas companies have tripled.
Russia accounts for one-third of world’s natural gas reserves,
Russia provides more than one-third of Europe’s gas supply,
Ukraine and USA have opposed Nord Stream,
as it will increase Europe’s reliance on Russian energy.
The West has been imposing sanctions on Russia,
Putin says he is willing to help Europe with supply,
America (Blinken) says Russia shouldn’t use energy supply as a ‘weapon’,
Russia smirks as renewables aren’t exactly doing it for Europe yet.
Doesn’t Norway have gas?
Norway’s Equinor is Europe’s 2nd largest gas supplier after Gazprom,
they will increase more supply.
So Putin offers immediate gas transported through Ukraine,
Ukraine and Biden (USA) are friends,
Biden could be friendly to Russia by ‘allowing’ gas to run through Ukraine,
Russia then asks for sanctions to ease as a trade off,
Ukraine gets to earn money in transit fees,
Europe receives gas quickly,
Gas prices fall, easing rising consumer costs,
The U.S. will be nicer to Russia,
because while he was at Columbia Law School,
Secretary of State, Antony Blinken wrote a book in 1987,
Which suggest being friendly and engaging Russia rather than defeating them,
And this gives us a clue to his potential diplomacy plan,
The book “Ally versus Ally: America, Europe, and the Siberian Pipeline Crisis (1987)” argued, U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union was less important than U.S. policy toward its European allies.
The cat and mouse game is….
Petro Nations need Petro Dollars
Supply will be provided, at a cost…..
And not just selling at higher prices,
But a request for quicker commissioning of NordStream 2
and request lifting of sanctions against Russia.
and the trade is…….
Short gas prices,
sell your other oil and gas equities,
hold your Gazprom shares (for the moment),
And buy uranium related investments.
October 7, 2021
by Rob Zdravevski
rob@karriasset.com.au
rob zdravevski's blog 