Macro Extremes (week ending August 14, 2026)

A weekly Macro, Cross Asset review of prices trading at extremes which may generate future investment ideas and opportunities.

The following assets (on a weekly timeframe) either registered an Overbought or Oversold reading and/or have traded more than 2.5 standard deviations above or below its rolling mean.

n.b. pricing of (commodity) futures contracts is only considering the immediate front month. 

* denotes multiple week inclusion

Extremes above the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Sugar

Sugar #`16

CAD/CHF

EUR/CHF

Czechia’s PX Index *

And the ASX 200 Index *

Overbought (RSI > 70)  

Japanese 10-year bond yields *

U.S. 5 year minus 5-year breakeven inflation rate spread *

U.S. 10 year minus 10-year breakeven inflation rate spread

North European Rolled Steel *

U.S. Midwest Hot Rolled Coiled Steel *

Heating Oil Crack Spread *

CNH/USD *

COP/USD *

USD/HKD

Netherland’s AEX Index *

Austria’s ATX Index *

KBW Bank Index *

Hungary’s BUX Index *

Dow Jones Industrials Index *

Spain’s IBEX Index *

S&P Smal Cap 600

Russell 2000

S&P MidCap 400

Singapore’s Strait Times Index *

And Poland’s WIG Index *

The Overbought Quinella (Both Overbought and Traded at > 2.5 standard deviations above the weekly mean) 

Japanese 2 and 5-year bond yield *

AUD/CHF

And Canada’s TSX Index *

Extremes below the Mean (at least 2.5 standard deviations) 

Mexico’s IPC Index

Oversold (RSI < 30) 

None

The Oversold Quinella (Both Oversold and Traded at < 2.5 standard deviations below the weekly mean) 

None

Notes & Ideas:

Government bond yields rose.

The exception was Aussie yields and U.S. 2’s and 3’s.

Chinese 10-year bond yields have fallen for 4 weeks.

Equities were mixed.

The All Developed Worlds ex USA, ATX, BUX, DAX, OMX Helsinki, OX, Eurostoxx 50 and WIG have risen for 4 weeks.

The FTSE 250 and OBX are in a 5-week winning streak.

While Singapore’s Strait Times has risen for 7 weeks.

Indonesia’s IDX, FTSE 100 and ASX Financials fell and snapped their respective winning weekly runs.

The KOSPI rose to break its 7 weeks of decline.

And the BOVESPA has fallen 6.3% in the past 2 weeks.

Commodities prices were mixed, again.

Coal, Crude Oil, Gases, Distillates and Sugar and Softs were the notable gainers.

Shipping Rates, Coffee, Palladium and Urea were amongst the largest decliners.

Cotton, Copper and Uranium is in a 4-week winning streak.

U.S. Hot Rolled Coiled Steel has climbed for 5 weeks.

Tin has advanced for 7 weeks.

Natural Gas rose and snapped a 6-week losing streak.

Lean Hogs have fallen for 4 weeks.

And Lumber has declined 14% in 3 weeks.

Currencies were active.

The Aussie and Loonie were firmer, again.

The AUD/USD is in a 7-week winning streak.

Lots of Swiss Franc pairs appear in this week’s list of extremes.

COP/USD and MXN/USD have risen for 4 consecutive weeks.

Euro was mainly higher again.

Yen was weaker.

And the USD rose against the Korean Won to break 6 weeks of losses.

The larger advancers over the past week comprised of; 

Australian Coking Coal 4.4%, Richards Bay Coal 3.8%, Rotterdam Coal 4.4%, Bloomberg Commodity Index 2.8%, Brent Crude 6%, WTI Crude 5.4%, Heating Oil 6.7%, LNG in Yen 4.8%, Lithium Carbonate 3.4%, Lithium Hydroxide 2.4%, Newcastle Coal 3.2%, Natural Gas 2.7%, Orange Juice 1.8%, Sugar #16 7.1%, S&P GSCI 2.7%, CRB Index 2.8%, Dutch TTF Gas 10.6%, Gasoil 3.8%, Silver 1.8%, Corn 4.6%, Oats 4.3%, Wheat 5.5%, Gasoil crack spread 10.1%, Heating crack spread 5.5%, Gasoline crack spread 5.5%, AD02 1.5%, KBW Banks 2%, TAIEX 3.6%, KRE Regional Banks 2.3%, KOSPI 11.5%, BIST 2.9%, Nikkei 225 4.7%, OBX 3%, Copenhagen 2.9% and Helsinki’s OMX rose 1.8%.

The group of largest decliners for the week included; 

Baltic Dry Index (7.3%), Arabica Coffee (6.3%), Lumber (1.9%), Cattle (2.8%), Palladium (3.8%), Gasoline (2.7%), Robusta Coffee (4.4%), Urea U.S. Gulf (2.4%), Rice (1.8%), FCATC (4.1%), HSCEI (2.2%), Hang Seng (2.2%), BOVESPA (3.2%), MOEX (6.4%), Mexico (3.8%), SA40 (3.1%), IGPA (1.7%), FTSE 100 (1.4%), Vietnam (2.2%), ASX Financials (3.2%), ASX 200 (1.6%), ASX Materials (1.8%), ASX Industrials (3%) and Naptha crack spread sunk 40.3%.

August 16, 2026

By Rob Zdravevski 

rob@karriasset.com.au