New Macro Calls – Short AUD, Copper, Silver, Oil & Gold

June 8, 2020

by Rob Zdravevski

My new macro trade calls are;

Short AUD vs USD – its currently 0.6973. I first called this short at 0.66 on May 28th, 2020.

Short Oil (Brent is currently 42.90) – Brent today hit $43 target I mentioned in a note dated May 25th, 2020.

and I’m still Short Gold in USD, its currently $1,691

(see my original note, from May 4th, 2020,

A break below $1,645 suggests USD Gold’s downtrend transfers the from a Short-Term to Medium Term timeframe.

But in light of expected AUD weakness, Gold in AUD is likely to be near its floor.

Currently its A$2,420, some probability of an overshoot to A$2,365, a further 2.2% lower from here.

Put another way, the decline in XAUAUD price should slow due to a falling AUD.

For example, a USD Gold price of US$1,551 (my initial downside target) and AUD FX of 0.6660 (its rolling daily mean and 20 day moving average), would put the XAUAUD at $2,329. Hardly a tragic collapse.

Furthermore, Platinum (in USD) is heading lower. Currently its $842

While Silver peaked on June 1-2 at the $18.90 mark, currently its $17.72.

A break below $17.30 aids the greater short commodity trade thesis.

Copper ($2.55) should turn lower. The manner (price action, accumulation, volume) of its recent break above the $2.46-$2.48 resistance hasn’t convinced me of a new higher, stronger leg.

Now to figure out how my views will affect certain stocks and also what other opportunities present themselves.

For example, I may be selling Woodside & BHP.

To be clear, these “calls” start life as short term views, which I typically categorise in a 3-6 week timeframe. Then, I start thinking whether they morph into a medium term call which usually means a period lasting 6-14 weeks.

An added note to these calls is that over the longer term, I remain bullish on Oil.

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